Scottish Grand National: Mullins to have the Measure of Ayr rivals

The Scottish Grand National takes centre stage at Ayr on Saturday and, after an Aintree version that failed to provide a telling blow for either yard with hopes of claiming the trainers’ championship, the £210,000 on offer for this weekend’s big race could prove decisive.

Irish-trained runners filled five of the first six places in the race widely regarded as the world’s greatest on Merseyside and it could be a case of more of the same at Ayr, with the powerful yards of Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott currently responsible for the first two in the market.

Measureofmydreams was a fortunate winner of a Grade 2 at Navan on his penultimate start, but he would still have been a good second behind last-fence casualty Black Hercules, and the subsequent exploits of that rival (won the JLT at the Cheltenham Festival) have done no harm to the form. Measureofmydreams posted a solid effort of his own in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham and, while he was left behind by a couple of more thorough stayers up the hill, he emerged from that run with plenty of credit. That experience in a big field will stand him in good stead here and, with the second Native River going on to win a Grade 1 at Aintree, Measureofmydreams looks to hold sound form claims as he bids to propel Willie Mullins towards a first British trainers’ championship.

A winner of the aforementioned National Hunt Chase at the 2015 Cheltenham Festival, Cause of Causes was once again in the winner’s enclosure at last month’s meeting, this time after landing the Kim Muir. He made up a remarkable amount of ground on the entrance to the straight that day and simply rocketed clear in the closing stages, justifying his apparent strength in the market. That was over 3¼m however, and, given he seemed to appreciate the emphasis on speed at the trip when landing last year’s National Hunt Chase, with the prospect of soft ground and a strong pace on Saturday, he looks likely to have his stamina tested more thoroughly here. That attribute was possibly stretched in last year’s Grand National and he looks opposable off a career-high mark.

Seeyouatmidnight was also last seen at Cheltenham, but failed to uphold the form of his victory over Blaklion in January and ultimately finished a well-beaten seventh behind that rival in the RSA. A winner of a 3m Grade 2 over hurdles on heavy ground, he was well below his best form at the Festival and he can be forgiven one poor run in a career that has been characterised - for the most part - by consistent performances. He produced a career-best in this sphere when winning the Dipper on New Year’s Day and, although that effort came over 2½m, the combination of heavy ground and an aggressive ride made it a searching test of stamina. He won’t mind these conditions and should go well as he bids to become only the second horse trained in Scotland to win the race since 1982.

Vyta du Roc fared slightly better than Seeyouatmidnight when fifth in the RSA and that effort is in keeping with what he has achieved over fences so far. He showed a terrific attitude when winning a Grade 2 at Ascot on his penultimate start and, having denied subsequent National Hunt Chase winner Minella Rocco that day, a strict interpretation of the form would give him the beating of Measureofmydreams. However, Minella Rocco improved some 10 lb on Timeform ratings when scoring at Cheltenham and Vyta du Roc would need to take a similar step forward to make his presence felt here. The best of his very smart form over hurdles suggests that isn’t beyond the realms of possibility, but he looks up against it on the balance of his chasing form.

Southfield Theatre also brings RSA form into this race, his second behind Don Poli in the 2015 renewal representing a career-best over fences, and he shaped as if returning to that sort of form when brought down in the 3m handicap at the Festival last month. Injured when filling the runner-up spot behind the subsequent Gold Cup third last year, trainer Paul Nicholls reported his charge to be back in good shape for that most recent outing, after a couple of disappointing performances earlier in the campaign. His exit from the race happened too early for that theory to be tested conclusively, but he doesn’t look harshly treated on a mark of 150 and, granted a full recovery from that heavy fall, Southfield Theatre is worth considering on his first try at this trip.   

A casualty at the 18th fence in Saturday’s Grand National at Aintree, Gallant Oscar would have an excellent chance on Timeform ratings if allowed to take his chance here, but that looks unlikely and Tony Martin looks set to rely on Heathfield instead. A winner of a competitive handicap at last year’s Punchestown Festival, he took advantage of a lenient mark over hurdles on his most recent outing and, while the form figures of his last two starts over fences don’t inspire confidence, Martin will be sure to have his mount ready to peak for the big day. He will be suited by a return to staying distances in this sphere and, with any rain that arrives between now and then likely to be in his favour, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Heathfield go off much shorter than his current price for shrewd connections.

Others to mention include Folsom Blue and A Good Skin, who both showed a useful level of form when beaten in competitive events last time and are now handicapped to get closer to their respective conquerors on Saturday. Rogue Angel got the run of the race when winning the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse and stablemate Folsom Blue could well reverse the placings as they bid to give trainer Mouse Morris a third National win in the space of three weeks. Meanwhile, A Good Skin was hampered by Cause of Causes when trying to deliver his challenge at the second-last in the Kim Muir and kept on well up the hill to take second. He could improve for this longer trip and can be expected to reduce the deficit at least on Saturday.

However, novices have a terrific record in this race and the National Hunt Chase has often proved a good stepping stone over the years. Beshabar was placed in the 2011 renewal before going on to victory here and Measureofmydreams can repeat the dose after a creditable third at Cheltenham. It would be a first victory in the race for Willie Mullins but, more importantly, it would also go a long way towards securing a first trainers’ championship on these shores. Paul Nicholls won’t go down without a fight, though, and his Southfield Theatre could provide the main threat, while Vicente could also give the yard something to shout about at a fair price after a useful effort behind the selection last time. Seeyouatmidnight and Folsom Blue complete the shortlist.

Recommendation:

Back Measureofmydreams in the Scottish Grand National at 8/1