Ryanair Chase Preview: Different race but same Road to glory

“Vautour’s surprise presence turned the Ryanair Chase into a very different race to the one that had looked likely a week or so earlier, and the controversy over the decision was fuelled partly by Rich Ricci’s being executive chairman of a firm of bookmakers. BetBright responded to the obvious embarrassment by paying out on Vautour as the winner of the Gold Cup.”

So read the essay on Vautour in Chasers & Hurdlers 2015/16, reflecting on the decision – announced only on the Tuesday of Festival week – to divert him from his long-term target, the Gold Cup, to the Ryanair Chase, which he went on to win by six lengths.

Fast forward the clock three years, and we find ourselves in a very similar situation. BetBright and Rich Ricci are in the headlines once again following the announcement that the bookmaker was to cease trading and would be declaring all unsettled bets void, while the news also came through on Wednesday (albeit not quite so controversially) that a high-profile contender for this year’s Gold Gup, Road To Respect, was instead more likely to run in the Ryanair Chase.

Sadly, for those who backed him ante-post, bookmakers won’t be paying out on Road To Respect as the winner of the Gold Cup – BetBright certainly won’t – and his presence has most definitely added a new dimension to the Ryanair, the make-up of which is still typically difficult to get a handle on at this stage, with the top eight in the betting all having alternative engagements at the meeting.

In fairness to Noel Meade, he had never committed Road To Respect to the Gold Cup quite so forcefully as Rich Ricci had Vautour – “we’ll run in the Gold Cup or we’ll stay at home” the American owner famously said – and the decision to switch is an understandable one, with the eight-year-old having seemingly failed to get home when fourth behind Native River in the blue riband 12 months ago. A handicap winner over C&D at the 2017 Festival, Road To Respect has proved at least as good as ever in three starts this term, including when beaten just a short-head by Bellshill after an uncharacteristically sloppy jumping display in the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown last time, and he certainly has the form to be a player, as he attempts to provide the sponsor with back-to-back wins in this race.

What a finish to the feature! Bellshill is now a five-time Grade 1 winner with victory in the Unibet Irish Gold Cup for Ruby Walsh and Willie Mullins at @LeopardstownRC #DRF

Results ➡ https://t.co/7iJOPsdIyZ pic.twitter.com/gGLkpJyfnP

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) February 3, 2019

It was Balko des Flos who did the business for Gigginstown House Stud last year, when beating Un de Sceaux by four and a half lengths, and he is one of three other entries for the operation this time round. Admittedly, he has failed to reproduce that form in three starts this term, but previous Festival experience is always worth bearing in mind, and it would be no surprise to see him bounce back if lining up here; he is also entered in the Gold Cup, but this trip is probably his best judged on the balance of his form. Stablemate Sub Lieutenant, who was second in this race in 2017, and the unexposed Tout Est Permis complete the Gigginstown quartet, though the latter was said to be an unlikely runner earlier in the week.

Un de Sceaux beat Sub Lieutenant in this race two years ago – his second win at the meeting after the Arkle in 2015 – and, though beaten in the latest renewal, he showed himself to still be a top-class chaser when winning his other four starts that season, including the Boylesports Champion Chase at Punchestown last April. Willie Mullins’ charge has only made one appearance since, when chasing home Altior in the Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown in December, but that form is still amongst the best on offer here, and he looks sure to give another good account despite his advancing years, with every drop of the forecast rain that falls in his favour.

The only horses ahead of Un de Sceaux on weight-adjusted ratings are his two stablemates, Footpad and Min, though only one of that pair is likely to line up here, with the other set to take on Altior in the Champion Chase.

The market vibes in recent days suggest that Min is the most likely to head in that direction, despite him having been beaten twice at the hands of Altior already. He is unbeaten in two starts this season, including the 2½m John Durkan Chase at Punchestown (by a length and a half from Shattered Love, Balko des Flos third and The Storyteller fourth) on his reappearance, and would have to be respected if lining up here, though it remains the case that his absolute best performances have come at 2m, no great surprise in that given his style of running (often travels strongly).

Footpad was unbeaten in an outstanding novice campaign in 2017/18, notably winning the Arkle Chase at this meeting (by 14 lengths from Brain Power). He has failed to reproduce that form in two starts this term, but there have been valid excuses for that – he reportedly suffered overreaches on both occasions, something Mullins will seek to prevent at the Festival by running him without hind shoes – and, in any case, his half-length second to Simply Ned in the Paddy's Rewards Club Chase at Leopardstown last time is still comparable with the form of many of his rivals here. A winner at 19f over hurdles, he should have no trouble with this longer trip and has a definite class advantage if bouncing back to his very best (2 lb clear on weight-adjusted ratings).

Footpad is really impressive in winning the Arkle for @Ruby_Walsh and @WillieMullinsNH - four out of four over fences for fantastic Footpad!#FestivalFlashback pic.twitter.com/4ZA6aUsdBF

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) February 11, 2019

Another Irish challenger who would appear to hold leading claims is the Henry de Bromhead-trained Monalee, who showed himself to be a high-class novice chaser last season, winning the Flogas Novices’ Chase at Leopardstown before chasing home Presenting Percy in the 3m RSA Chase at this meeting. A reliable and classy front-runner, he produced a career best when winning the Red Mills Chase at Gowran Park (by two lengths from Anibale Fly, to whom he conceded 7 lb) last time, and would have to be respected if lining up here, with a strongly-run race at this trip probably his optimum conditions.

Similar comments apply to Frodon, who is likely to provide Monalee with competition for the lead should they both forego their Gold Cup entries. Frodon has proved better than ever after a breathing operation in four starts this season, winning the Caspian Caviar Gold Cup over C&D (from a BHA mark of 164) in December and the 25f Cotswold Chase back here (by three quarters of a length from Elegant Escape, Terrefort third) last time. A terrific jumper, this is easily the most winnable of his two engagements at the meeting and, his excellent course record marks him out as a leading contender, certainly the pick of the home team.

Frodon sees off Elegant Escape in BetBright Trial Cotswold Chase at @CheltenhamRaces

Watch the action LIVE on @ITV pic.twitter.com/qB2NfPBi0y

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) January 26, 2019

Politologue and Top Notch are others to note if taking their chance here, though that appears unlikely at this stage; the latter is reportedly more likely to run in the Stayers’ Hurdle, while Politologue is set to bypass the Festival altogether, with connections preferring to wait for the Melling Chase at Aintree that he won last year. Charbel and Aso are perhaps more likely runners, but their latest efforts – when finishing fifth and sixth, respectively, in the Ascot Chase – suggest that they have plenty to find to be competitive at the top level.

Conclusion

This race has a typically confused look to it at this stage, with plenty of doubly-entered horses – including the Mullins-trained pair who head the ratings – and Wednesday’s confirmation that this is Road To Respect’s target is enough to tilt the scales in his favour. A strong-traveller at 3m, the drop back to this intermediate trip is unlikely to be an issue on that evidence, and quotes of around 5/1 look mare than fair, with a reproduction of his peak efforts likely to see him involved in the finish regardless of the opposition. Footpad and Balko des Flos were both impressive winners at this meeting 12 months ago and, though neither of them have been at their best this time round, the return to Cheltenham could see them bounce back and provide the biggest threat to the selection.

Recommended bet:

Back Road To Respect in the Ryanair Chase at 5/1 (NRNB)

Read Andrew Asquith's preview of Tuesday's Champion Hurdle

Read Nick Seddon's preview of Wednesday's Queen Mother Champion Chase

Read Nic Doggett's preview of Thursday's Stayers' Hurdle

Read Nic Doggett's preview of Friday's Gold Cup