Ryanair Chase: Sizing up a strong bet

One word will stop most punters from having a weighty ante-post win bet on either the Queen Mother Champion Chase or the Ryanair Chase: Douvan. That’s fair enough, as he is an outstanding racehorse, but surely he’s heading for the former race, which makes the Ryanair an interesting race for a long-range wager.

Truth be told, the Ryanair is frequently a good punting event as you usually can filter out (or at least try to) a clutch of horses that may be prominent in the betting owing to their class but who are highly likely to take up an alternative engagement (whilst acknowledging it can sometimes backfire, like with Vautour last year).

Not only does this apply to Douvan, but also to Cue Card and Djakadam—the next two on the weight-adjusted ratings behind top-rated Douvan—whose trainers (Djakadam, of course, represents the same connections as Douvan) have already said both geldings are on course for the Gold Cup.

Typically for a big race featuring Vroum Vroum Mag among the possibles, she occupies a range of prices between 5/1 and 16/1. But surely she’s going for a repeat win in the Mares’ Hurdle, regardless of what happens to Annie Power (who will surely run in the Champion or World Hurdle, if she makes the meeting at all). Also, Vroum Vroum Mag’s last six runs have all been over hurdles, with her only defeat a short-head second to Apple’s Jade in December.

According to Mullins, Champagne Fever could be the Ricci representative in the Ryanair, and the 2014 Arkle runner-up could be a contender to outrun long odds (well, they’re long as thing stand—33/1—though he could be much shorter if he does end up in the race) given he made a belated winning return in a listed chase at Thurles in November by a head from Lord Windermere and will benefit from the drop back to two and a half miles.

Should Douvan go for the Champion Chase, as looks highly likely, it’ll be fascinating to see whether or not last year’s runner-up Un de Sceaux lines up against him. As Un de Sceaux won a Grade 2 French hurdle over 21 furlongs last May, he could well go for the Ryanair this year, though that angle hasn’t been missed by the bookmakers (or some punters that have had a bet in the race already) as he’s 4/1 favourite. Of course, he’s due to run against Ar Mad in the Clarence House Chase this weekend, too—it could be a case of whichever one gets bets (if not both of them) has his attentions turned away from the Champion Chase and to the Ryanair.

Outlander won three times at around two and a half miles last season, including a Grade 1, but he was strong in the finish returned to three miles when winning the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown last time by two and a quarter lengths from Don Poli and is surely another heading for the Gold Cup.

The Grade 3 Kinloch Brae Chase at Thurles on Thursday caused a bit of a shake-up in the Ryanair betting, with the winner Sizing John now into 8/1 from 25/1. It’s easy to see why, too, as that was just his second start over two and a half miles (and also his second outing for Jessica Harrington) and he looked to relish the test, pulling two and a half lengths clear of Sub Lieutenant in the closing stages. Sizing John, who has spent plenty of his career chasing after Douvan, is now a strong contender for the Ryanair, and at least we know there’s highly likely to go for the race with his owner having Fox Norton in the Champion Chase. He’s also twice run well at the Festival, finishing third in the Supreme and second in the Arkle.

Sub Lieutenant has been much improved since joining Henry de Bromhead, winning twice (including a Grade 2 at Down Royal) and finishing placed twice. He’s still a Ryanair contender himself, though he’s probably more each-way than win material now.

Last year’s JLT winner Black Hercules hasn't fired in either of his three starts this season, but there was a bit more to like about his third in the Kinloch Brae (when he was giving 2 lb to the first two). It wouldn’t be a surprise if he’s being lined up for something in the spring, though whether it’s the Ryanair is difficult to say with Mullins having at least two other realistic contenders for the race.

Uxizandre reacted very well to a first-time visor (he’d also previously won the first time he’d worn cheekpieces, which he also sported when second in the 2014 JLT) when making all in the 2015 Ryanair by five lengths from Ma Filleule. His absence since is a major concern, clearly, but Alan King will surely be lining up a prep race for him and he could well end up one of the highest rated horses in the Ryanair should most of the other form principals head elsewhere.

Josses Hill has looked an improved model this season, though he’s never been one to fully rely on, jumping most often his biggest frailty, so perhaps not one to back ante-post. More interesting among those who will be dropping back in trip are Empire of Dirt and Zabana. Empire of Dirt won the Festival Plate last year and looked even better when completing his handicap hat-trick in the Troytown in November on his first start for Gordon Elliott, but he clearly has plenty of options this spring. After winning two of his three previous outings, Zabana ran well for most of the way when seventh in the Grade 1 Lexus Chase last time, but he will need to improve another chunk to go close in the Ryanair.

With the first three from last year either deceased (Vautour), injured (Valseur Lido) and struggling for form (Road To Riches), and the 2015 Ryanair winner Uxizandre not having run since, it’s likely there’ll be a new name on the trophy in March. If Douvan runs, he’ll win, but that looks unlikely, and ironically it could be the horse who has finished behind him on seven occasions that profits from his absence: Sizing John. Champagne Fever is a candidate to outrun long odds.

Recommendation:

Back Sizing John for the 2017 Ryanair Chase at 8/1

Read our 2017 Champion Hurdle preview

Read our 2017 Cheltenham Gold Cup preview

Read our 2017 Stayers' Hurdle preview

Read our 2017 Champion Chase preview