Rose of Lancaster Stakes Preview: Auto trading too big for Stoute

Sheikh Hamdan Al Maktoum is by far the most successful owner in the recent history of the Rose of Lancaster Stakes, having won the race on five occasions since it was promoted to Group 3 status in 1989. The most talented member of that quintet was Nayef, who defeated Chianti by five lengths as a three-year-old in 2001, and went on to win the Champion Stakes, Dubai Sheema Classic, Juddmonte International and Prince of Wales’s Stakes in a glittering career that spanned four seasons.

The chances of Laraaib – Skeikh Hamdan’s sole entry in Saturday’s feature race at Haydock – scaling the same heights as Nayef look slim, though he is certainly worth a try in this higher grade having won each of his three starts to date for Owen Burrows. The three-year-old produced a promising first effort when winning at Chepstow in May and the form of his handicap debut at Haydock three weeks later could hardly have worked out better, with the runner-up Atty Persse then going one better in the King George V Handicap at Royal Ascot. Laraaib improved again when completing his hat-trick in a more competitive scenario at Ascot last time, taking a bit of winding up but quickly forging clear as the field entered the final furlong and strong to the line. He remains open to more improvement and rates an interesting contender if lining up, though he is reportedly not guaranteed to do so should the ground come up soft (the current description at the time of writing, with more rain forecast).

Soft ground would also be a slight question mark for Autocratic, who is favourite with the majority of firms but has done all of his winning to date on ground no worse than good. There is some encouragement to be taken from his pedigree on that front, however – by Dubawi (acted on good to soft himself and has sired Group 1 winners on soft including Makfi) and a half-brother to a Group 3 winner on heavy ground – and he arrives here on the back of a comfortable victory in the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown (by a length and a quarter from Algometer, good to firm), enduring a troubled passage two-out but keeping on well once in the clear. He was ruled out of a recent engagement at York after getting cast in his box, but his Sandown effort sets the standard on weight-adjusted ratings – even with his 3 lb penalty factored in – and Autocratic will be of definite interest if allowed to take his chance by Sir Michael Stoute, who is already the joint leading trainer in this race with three victories.

What About Carlo relishes testing conditions and proved better than ever to resume winning ways in a listed race on soft ground at Newbury (by two and three quarter lengths from Arthenus, Best of Days third, Restorer fifth) last month, though the race may not have taken much winning as it turned out, with Spark Plug among three non-runners on the day. What About Carlo is at least better judged on that form than when down the field in a handicap at Goodwood last time (finishing with running left having been short of room), but even his best gives him a bit to find with the principals. Spark Plug has less to find following a comfortable victory in a listed race at Sandown (by a length and three quarters from Kidmenever, Frankuus fourth, Ayrad fifth) last time, but his subsequent withdrawal due to the going at Newbury raises doubts about his suitability for this test.

The Chris Wall-trained First Sitting caused a surprise when beating Spark Plug by a nose in a listed race at Goodwood (Mount Logan third) in May, but showed that effort to be no fluke when two and a half lengths third to Robin of Navan in a Group 3 at Chantilly last time, meeting trouble entering the final furlong and doing well to finish so close under the circumstances. He acts on heavy going and looks sure to go well, though may be vulnerable to a less exposed sort for win purposes. Gabrial finished third in this race as a three-year-old in 2012, while Baydar was most progressive in 2016 and hinted at a revival when better than the result at Goodwood last time. He makes some appeal of those at bigger odds, but there is still plenty of mileage in Autocratic’s price at a general 5/1, and Stoute’s charge rates the most solid bet in what looks an open renewal.

Recommendation:

Back Autocratic to win the Rose of Lancaster Stakes at Haydock on Saturday at 5/1 

Read our Rose of Lancaster Stakes 'Blast From the Past'