Reappearing horses: Which yards to back and when

With the Flat coming back, it’s the time of year when it can pay to figure out which yards can be relied upon to hit the ground running with their reappearing runners. Suffice to say the big stables usually pick up right where they left off, the likes of John Gosden, William Haggas and both Godolphin stables all tending to operate at a high level right away, but things get more interesting a little further down the food chain.

Below are five trainers who history suggests could be worth noting with their reappearing runners over the coming months (we looked at three-year-old+ races in the period from the start of March to the end of May, and defined an absence as a break of three months or longer), as well as a couple who tend not to fare quite so well.

James Tate

The James Tate yard has been in flying form recently, and there’s plenty to say that trend will continue well into the spring, when the stable’s reappearing runners have an especially strong record. The stable sent out three winners from 12 runners returning from such breaks between the start of March and the end of May last season, which may not seem too impressive, but a closer examination of the results shows that there were a further five seconds and only two horses that missed the frame, the stable’s qualifying runners in the period beating nearly 80% of their total rivals. 2017 yielded even more impressive results, with six winners and a further six placed runners from just 14 qualifying horses.  All this suggests the stable’s returners are ready to go in the spring, and the (admittedly limited) evidence of this month at the time of writing (a winner and a second from two runners) does nothing to dispel the idea.

Jedd O’Keeffe

In terms of raw winners, Jedd O’Keeffe’s record with returning runners in March-May over the last five years doesn’t set the pulse racing, yet a closer look shows that such horses from the stable tend to perform very well. Taking last year as an example, the stable had two winners from 20 such horses, but it could easily have been more, with six runners-up and a couple of thirds in the period, and in total they beat more than two-thirds of their rivals. This is a pattern that holds up through all the seasons back to 2014, when the yard sent out three winners from just nine reappearing runners in the period in question, including at 11/1 and 10/1. With such a strong record of good performance, which isn’t apparent from strike rate alone, the yard’s seasonal debutants are going to be well worth a look over the coming weeks.

Jonathan Portman

One year doesn’t make a trend, but it’s worth pointing out just what an incredibly good time of things Jonathan Portman had with his spring reappearers in 2018. Six of 13 runners in the March-May period found the winner’s enclosure, including successes at 20/1 and 33/1. Obviously, those numbers are unlikely to be repeated, and it remains to be seen whether it develops into a longer-term pattern of early-season success, but with two winners, both returning from breaks, from just seven runners this month, the yard is one to keep an eye on over the next couple of months, not least as identifying a trend before it actually becomes one can be a good route to profit.

Alan King

It’s well known by now that this is a yard to note for handicaps on the Flat, and the numbers show that no-one should be put off backing one first time back in the spring. The yard’s reappearing handicappers have won at a rate of better than one in four in March-May over the past five years, as a group beating well over half their rivals and returning a healthy profit at SP.

Robert Cowell

A stable renowned for its success with sprinters, the numbers say that most of them are ready to roll first time back in the spring. Over the last five years, the yard’s usual 11% strike rate nearly doubles when reappearing runners between March and May are considered alone, and those numbers are supported by the underlying rivals beaten percentage, which comes in at nearly 62%

Tim Easterby

In terms of both winners and prize money, 2018 was by a wide margin the best of Tim Easterby’s 23 seasons as a trainer, but the yard has always been one whose reappearing horses tend to need the run in the early stages of the season. Indeed, going back to the start of 2017, the stable has had just eight reappearing winners from nearly 200 such runners in March-May. Interestingly, four of those winners went on to follow up on their next start, which suggests that, while most of the stable’s returners are best overlooked at this time of year, those that that do manage to defy the trend are the ones that are especially talented/well handicapped and could be worth following.

Karl Burke

Like Tim Easterby, Karl Burke is a prolific producer of winners but the yard's horses take a little while to get going. In all races between May-March over the last five years, the stable’s reappearing horses have won at barely half the yard’s usual 12% strike rate. If you restrict it to just handicap runners, the stable has had just three winners from well over 100 qualifying horses, two of which came on the all-weather in March of last year.