Qatar Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016: Will Makahiki make an Impact?

Japanese-trained horses have become synonymous with Europe’s richest Flat race and end of season crown jewel, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, so much so that it felt a little strange that the country was not represented in the 2015 renewal won by Golden Horn.

Japan had fielded at least one runner in each of the previous five renewals, including three in 2014, though the many travelling supporters of Harp Star, Just A Way and Gold Ship were ultimately left disappointed once again as all three finished outside of the places. The Japanese support at Longchamp also added plenty to the 2006 renewal, and the Timeform report noted that the race was more likely to last in the memory for the astonishing pre-race betting patterns rather than the contest itself, which saw the Andre Fabre-trained Rail Link prevail by a neck from Pride. The subject of the heavy market support was Deep Impact, who, due to the extent of the fanatical support of the several thousand Japanese fans at Longchamp, opened up on course at 10/1-on.

Timeform’s report on Deep Impact’s Arc run is certainly worth reviewing:

“Deep Impact came within a length of creating pure bedlam at Longchamp; merely to state that his presence added interest to proceedings barely does justice to the reality of what unfolded; Longchamp was almost overrun by hordes of supporters, many wearing Deep Impact’s owner’s colours, some carrying flags; whenever the horse, his rider or trainer were sighted on one of the many screens, it was a case of cue hysteria.”

Deep Impact came close to giving Japan a first Arc in 2006 (though he was subsequently disqualified for failing a drugs test), but he wasn’t the first or last from his country to be narrowly denied in the race. In 1999, Japan’s first Arc runner El Condor Pasa put up a performance that would have been good enough to win many renewals of the race (ran to a Timeform rating of 136), and he was perhaps a shade unlucky to bump into the home-trained favourite Montjeu, who ran to 137 as the pair left “a number of Europe’s finest thoroughbreds stretched out more than 50 lengths behind”.

El Condor Pasa’s trainer Yoshitaka Ninomiya and jockey Masayoshi Ebina went even closer to winning the Arc 11 years later when Nakayama Festa lost out by just a head to the Ryan Moore-ridden Workforce in the 2010 renewal. Nakayama Festa – sent off at odds of 26/1 and rated some 6 lb lower than Workforce – didn’t bring the same level of form as El Condor Pasa, nor the level of expectation of Deep Impact, but ran the race of his life and very nearly achieved what that pair couldn’t.

Despite those three close calls, Japan’s most gilt-edged opportunity surely came in 2012 in an Arc which, due to some notable absentees including the previous year’s first and third, Danedream and Snow Fairy (who both had higher Timeform master ratings than the shock winner Solemia), turned out to be one of the weaker renewals of the race. Japan’s top horse that year, Orfevre, who came into the race 3 lb clear of the field on weight-adjusted Timeform ratings, was sent off at odds of 35/10 and comfortably looked the best horse in the race. He traded at the minimum of 1.01 in-running on the Betfair Exchange after quickening impressively up the straight and going two lengths clear over a furlong out, only to hang right and idle when he hit the rail and ultimately hand the race to the straight-running Solemia, who prevailed by a neck. Orfevre returned in 2013 with a better performance but had little chance against Treve, who ran to a career-best 134 that year to win by an exceptional five lengths.

Japanese hopes this year rest on Makahiki who has a very similar profile to Kizuna, who was fourth in the 2013 renewal behind both Treve and Orfevre. Both are sons of Deep Impact, and like Kizuna in 2013, Makahiki has won both the Japanese Derby and the Prix Niel en route to the Arc.

It would be easy to draw comparisons between Makahiki and Deep Impact – who both wear the colours of Kaneko Makoto Holdings Co. Ltd – but Deep Impact was a year older in 2006 and from Timeform’s point of view, Makahiki has a much more similar chance to Kizuna coming into the Arc, with just 1 lb separating their pre-race master ratings (though Makahiki does have a ‘p’), and with both of them some way below the level of form that Deep Impact had demonstrated (135 on pre-race master ratings) prior to his Arc.

Although Makahiki (127p) is within touching distance of the likes of Postponed (132) and Order of St George (129), Timeform master ratings indicate that this perhaps isn’t as good an opportunity for Japan to gain a first Arc compared with 2012. Even so, having a Japanese representative in the race once again this year cannot fail to add further intrigue (and atmosphere on track) to one of the undoubted highlights of the Flat season.