Punchestown Day One Preview: Mullins has a strong hand

While the British Jumps season came to a conclusion with a piece of history courtesy of Altior at Sandown on Saturday afternoon, there’s still plenty to play for over in Ireland, with five days of top-class National Hunt racing at the Punchestown Festival – which kicks off on Tuesday.

The fact that the meeting arrives around six weeks after Cheltenham and little more than three weeks after Aintree means that upsets are perhaps more likely to occur here than elsewhere, something alluded to by Simon Rowlands in his stats-based preview for the meeting on Sunday.  

Indeed, some illustrious names have fallen short at Punchestown having won at the Cheltenham Festival since the turn of the century, 12 as odds-on favourites to be precise, including the likes of Un de Sceaux, Moscow Flyer and Samcro, who was a faller in last year’s Punchestown Champion Hurdle.

Day One of the meeting features three Grade 1 contests on the card, beginning with the Champion Novice Hurdle at 16:20, for which six runners have been declared.

The one who sets the standard is the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner, Klassical Dream, who sits 8 lb clear of the field on Timeform ratings and is an odds-on favourite for this at the time of writing. It seems likely that his future lies over fences next term, but he’s yet to put a foot wrong over timber for Willie Mullins, winning each of his three starts since joining the yard. The form of his Supreme win is comfortably the strongest piece of form on offer here, and he will prove very difficult to beat.

What a performance - Klassical Dream is the Supreme Novice! #TheFestival #CheltenhamFestival pic.twitter.com/MzFmB1UOPx

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) March 12, 2019

Like Klassical Dream, Felix Desjy looks a fine chasing prospect for next season, and he built on his effort to finish fifth in the Supreme when winning the Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree earlier this month (Aramon second). He was given an enterprising ride by Jack Kennedy that day, building up a big lead before holding on gamely on the run-in, and it will be interesting to see if similar tactics are deployed here – though admittedly he would need more to trouble Klassical Dream. Aramon was sixth in the Supreme, and although he deserves his place here, he’s firmly held on form by both Felix Desjy and Klassical Dream.

Interestingly, the three remaining runners didn’t run at either of the other two spring festivals, including another of Klassical Dream’s stablemates Quick Grabim, who was ruled out of Cheltenham through injury. We haven’t seen him since he ran out a convincing winner of a Grade 1 contest at Fairyhouse at the beginning of December, a run which placed him top of the novice hurdling division at the time, and although several of his rivals have progressed past him since, he’s an interesting alternative provided he’s ready to go after an absence.

The field is completed by Mister Blue Sky and Champagne Platinum. The latter strictly has plenty to find on Timeform ratings with Klassical Dream, 18 lb to be precise, but he is a fascinating contender for the Nicky Henderson team, having won both of his starts to date in minor company. He’s bred to stay further than this in time, but isn’t short on pace on what he’s shown so far, and looks open to significant improvement now taking his chance in graded company. Mister Blue Sky is another who could improve yet after winning a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse earlier this month, but he will need more to have serious claims.

In conclusion, it’s difficult to look past Klassical Dream here, whose effort to win the Supreme at Cheltenham is the strongest piece of form on offer. He’s yet to put a foot wrong since joining Willie Mullins, and is expected to take his unbeaten record for the yard to four. Stablemate Quick Grabim is an interesting alternative if able to build on his Grade 1 win at Fairyhouse back in December, while any market support for Champagne Platinum would be interesting now stepped into this company.

Seventy minutes after the Champion Novice Hurdle is the Champion Chase at 17:30, which also features a field of six.

As in the Champion Novice Hurdle, we are likely to have another odds-on favourite in the form of Min, who arrives here having taken apart the field in the Melling Chase at Aintree earlier this month. That run came on the back of something of a blip, when fifth in the Champion Chase, but Min has otherwise enjoyed an excellent campaign, winning Grade 1 contests at Punchestown and Leopardstown prior to that, and a repeat of his Aintree run would make him impossible to oppose here.

Min and last year’s winner Un De Sceaux are two of three runners for Willie Mullins in the @BoyleSports Champion Chase @punchestownrace on Tuesday 🐎 >>>https://t.co/4RCLcTHrJh pic.twitter.com/d09ZvXOz4x

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) April 28, 2019

The biggest threat to Min will almost certainly come from his stablemate, Un de Sceaux, who won this race last year under an excellent ride by Patrick Mullins. Paul Townend is due to ride him this time around, and Un de Sceaux is a top-class performer in his own right, producing a top-notch effort to finish second behind Altior in the Tingle Creek back in December. However, he’s firmly into the veteran stage of his career now as an eleven-year-old, and generally needs more testing conditions to be seen to best effect. It would be no surprise should he bounce back and make a bold bid here after a below-par run at Cheltenham in the Ryanair Chase last month, but he ultimately has something to prove.

The remaining four runners all have a considerable amount to find for win purposes, though the J.P. McManus-owned pair of Great Field and Hell’s Kitchen would both have place claims if producing something near their best form. However, this seems likely to develop into a match race between the two aforementioned Mullins runners, one which Min can edge.

The final Grade 1 of the day is the Champion Novice Chase (Ellier), which is due off at 18:40 and will be contested by eight runners.

Delta Work heads the market at the time of writing, having finished third in last month’s RSA Chase at Cheltenham. Despite losing his unbeaten record over fences that day, he emerged from that race with plenty of credit, with jumping errors seemingly costing him his chance on the day. A dual Grade 1 winner, it’s likely that Delta Work is open to more improvement yet, and he ought to make a bold bid to gain compensation here.

More interesting though is the Close Brothers winner A Plus Tard, who produced a performance of staggering authority to blow away the field that day, winning by 16 lengths. The manner of that victory strongly suggested that he would have been a big player had he taken his chance in one of the Grade 1 novice chases at Cheltenham, and as a result he sits 8 lb clear of Delta Work on Timeform ratings on the back of that (receives a 5 lb age allowance). Still only a five-year-old, it’s difficult to say where his limits lie over fences, but there ought to be plenty more to come from him yet, and he’s a confident pick to take this.

Also worthy of a mention, though, is the Willie Mullins-trained Getabird who’s had just two starts over fences this term. We haven’t seen him since he was beaten at short odds in a Grade 1 novice at Limerick in December, but he was unlucky to lose that day considering he slipped when in control at the last before rallying close home. He’s got plenty to find with the two principals, but is open to improvement and looks to have excellent claims of being placed at the very least.