Punchestown Day Four Preview: Supa double on the cards

Look back at the runners and riders featured on the roll of honour for the Punchestown Champion Hurdle – the highlight on the fourth day of the track’s spring festival – and there are two names that appear more than any other, one equine and one human.

By far the most prolific horse in the race’s history is the legendary Hurricane Fly, who won four consecutive renewals of the Grade 1 prize between 2010 and 2013 – no other horse has won the race on more than one occasion. He was retired in 2015 with a record 22 Grade 1 wins to his name, which also included two victories in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham, and will forever be associated with the most successful jockey in this race, who shocked the sporting world when announcing his own retirement after guiding Kemboy to a decisive success in Wednesday’s Punchestown Gold Cup.

Ruby Walsh recorded the first of his six wins in this race in 2003 courtesy of Davenport Milenium, before adding five further victories to his tally in the last decade, most recently with Faugheen in 2015 and Vroum Vroum Mag the following year. Ask him who was his favourite two-mile hurdler, though, and there is likely to be only one answer, with the table below clearly demonstrating the sheer consistent brilliance that Hurricane Fly was capable of. Faugheen may have reached a higher peak rating but, overall, Hurricane Fly was responsible for 10 of the top 14 performances produced by horses ridden by Walsh in two-mile hurdle races.

Walsh has been associated with countless big names during his illustrious career – Kauto Star, Denman, Big Buck’s, Annie Power, Quevega, etc. – but few have complimented his style, and vice versa, the way that Hurricane Fly did. Put simply, it is likely to be a long time before we see either of their like again.

It should be pointed out that, due to injury, Walsh was only in the saddle for three of Hurricane Fly’s four wins in this race, with Paul Townend stepping in ably to guide him to his first success in 2010. As of next season, Townend will no longer have to settle for the role of first reserve, but he has had to make do with a last-minute call up again here, with Walsh’s impromptu retirement clearing the way for him to take the ride on Melon in Friday’s feature.

Melon produced the best effort of his career to date when getting within a neck of Buveur d’Air in the 2018 Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham, after which he fell three out when well fancied for this race. Disappointing on his first two starts of this season, he didn’t run much better, in truth, when again filling the runner-up spot in this year’s Champion Hurdle – he was beaten fully 15 lengths behind the impressive Espoir d’Allen – and the balance of his form this term leaves him with a bit to prove at present, especially as he arrives here on the back of a heavy fall at Aintree last-time-out.

Supasundae was the chief beneficiary of Melon’s fall in this race 12 months ago, staying on strongly to beat Wicklow Brave by three and a quarter lengths and, in the process, adding to his victory in the Irish Champion Hurdle earlier that season. Jessica Harrington’s charge was operating below that level during the first half of the current campaign, but he bounced back with a determined success in the Aintree Hurdle (by a length and a quarter from Buveur d’Air, Summerville Boy fourth) last time, hard to fault his performance for all that he probably didn’t need to improve to beat the below-par runner-up. Consistent on the whole, there is no reason why he shouldn’t give another good account, and he certainly arrives here with fewer questions to answer than those who are shorter than him in the betting.

Supasundae wins the Betway Aintree Hurdle at @AintreeRaces ahead of favourite Buveur D'Air

What a dramatic race! pic.twitter.com/I9XLbuCFIj

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) April 4, 2019

The market leader at the time of writing is the aforementioned Buveur d’Air, who was completing a sequence of 10 straight wins – including back-to-back renewals of the Champion Hurdle – when landing the Fighting Fifth Hurdle on his return at Newcastle (by eight lengths from Samcro, Summerville Boy fourth) in December. The wheels have rather come off since then, however, with only one win from four subsequent starts to his name, that sole success coming in an ordinary listed event at Sandown. An early faller when bidding for his third consecutive Cheltenham success, he harried Supasundae all the way to the line at Aintree last time, but that still represented a marked departure from the pick of his form, and he also arrives here with a bit to prove as a result.

The last of the main contenders is Apple’s Jade, another has also been below her brilliant best on her last two starts in the Champion Hurdle at Cheltenham (well held in sixth) and the Stayers Hurdle at Aintree (neck third to If The Cap Fits). She had looked as good as ever prior to that, recording four successive wins by an aggregate margin of 73 lengths – including the Irish Champion Hurdle at this trip (by 16 lengths from Supasundae, Petit Mouchoir third and Melon fourth) – but a worrying theme is starting to emerge, when you consider that she also endured an anticlimactic spring in 2018. She had a hard race at Aintree, too, and you’re having to take a lot on trust if you’re looking to get involved with her at around the 3/1 mark, for all that she is the clear form pick if arriving here in top form.

Unbelievable finish! If The Cap Fits gets up on the line to deny Roksana and the brave Apple's Jade in the Ryanair Stayers Hurdle at @AintreeRaces pic.twitter.com/rPpCbvCsE4

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) April 6, 2019

Of the remainder, Petit Mouchoir will find this trip more suitable than when five lengths fourth to Rashaan in a Grade 2 at Fairyhouse 11 days ago, while Wicklow Brave was an early faller in that same Fairyhouse event. The winner of this race in 2017, he showed that he retains all his ability when second under a big weight in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham (short head behind William Henry) on his penultimate outing, though his record in recent seasons shows that he is difficult to catch right. Summerville Boy, on the other hand, hasn’t been right all season – he was beaten 32 lengths behind Supasundae on his return from four months off last time – and his win in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at last year’s Cheltenham Festival now seems a distant memory.

Conclusion:

Apple’s Jade and Buveur d’Air would have this between them if arriving in top form, but that is a big ‘if’ at present, especially as they both arrive here on the back of below-par efforts. With this race coming at the end of a long season, it would take a brave man to expect an upturn in their fortunes and, at the prices, it could be worth taking a chance on Supasundae. Admittedly, he has had a busy time of things, too, but it was a similar set of circumstances that he faced when winning this race 12 months ago, and his Aintree win last was as good an effort as has ever produced – a repeat of that could well suffice if our fears about the other market principals are proved correct.

Recommendation:

Back Supasundae to win Friday's Punchestown Champion Hurdle at 5/1