Punchestown Champion Hurdle Preview: Melon looks ripe to upset Samcro

With five of the eight declared runners, headed by Champion Hurdle runner-up Melon and last year’s winner Wicklow Brave, Willie Mullins has plenty of ammunition lined up in his bid to win the Punchestown Champion Hurdle for the eighth time in the last nine years. But his chances of doing so are less certain with Gordon Elliott declaring the unbeaten Samcro in this contest instead of in the less valuable Grade 1 novice hurdle.

Bold move by Gigginstown

Samcro’s presence certainly spices up this contest and his first start outside novice company – and against some proven high-class hurdlers - should provide much more solid evidence than we have so far about how good he really is. Strictly on ratings, Samcro has it to do against the likes of Melon and Supasundae, but only because he’s been asked to beat fellow novices until now.

No matter how impressively he’s done so in his four starts over hurdles this season, there’s a limit to how highly those performances can be rated. But while there was again plenty of style in Samcro’s latest success in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, it’s a performance that’s been given substance too by runner-up Black Op going on to Grade 1 success at Aintree.

Samcro wins the Ballymore Novices' Hurdle in good style and remains unbeaten over hurdles (4-4) for trainer @gelliott_racing #TheFestival pic.twitter.com/NpMy6vdXfc

— CheltenhamRacecourse (@CheltenhamRaces) 14 March 2018

That was over two miles five furlongs on soft ground, but Samcro had beaten a good field over two miles at Leopardstown in the Deloitte Novices’ Hurdle the time before, not even a falsely-run race at that trip giving him any trouble. Samcro may well cope with Champion Hurdle-standard horses this time, but he’s at cramped odds to do so, as he has been in all his starts to date, and the value lies elsewhere with those already proven at this level.

Irish Champion Hurdle form

Melon and Supasundae are the obvious alternatives, and it was the latter who fared much the better of the pair when they last met in the Irish Champion Hurdle at Leopardstown. Supasundae has run close to that form since when runner-up in the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and the Aintree Hurdle, but there’s nothing wrong with his form at two miles and his trainer Jessica Harrington has won this race three times before with Moscow Flyer, Macs Joy and Jezki.

Melon was only fifth behind Supasundae at Leopardstown when the application of a hood seemed to have an adverse effect. Without it, he then turned in a career-best in pushing Buveur d’Air close in the Champion Hurdle, something which no other horse has managed this season. Melon has only had seven races over hurdles himself, so we haven’t necessarily seen the best of him yet, either.

It doesn't get any less exciting the more you watch it...

Just one week since Buveur D'Air retained his @Unibet Champion Hurdle title for the @sevenbarrows team#TheFestival #IWasThere pic.twitter.com/scdjFsSiAp

— CheltenhamRacecourse (@CheltenhamRaces) 20 March 2018

Other Mullins contenders

Wicklow Brave was wearing blinkers for the first time when winning this race under Patrick Mullins as his stable’s apparent third string last year and comes here, like twelve months ago, after finishing seventh in the Champion Hurdle. Whilst capable on his day, his overall record is none too convincing and it will be a surprise if he can repeat last year’s feat in what looks a stronger renewal.

The rest of the Mullins team are probably only looking to pick up scraps of all-important prize money as the Irish trainers’ title goes to the wire. It’s a surprise to see Min declared again this week as his fourth place in Tuesday’s Champion Chase suggested his busy spring campaign was catching up with him. He hasn’t run over hurdles since splitting Altior and Buveur d’Air in the 2016 Supreme Novices’.

Coquin Mans has progressed into a smart hurdler this term and won a Grade 2 in heavy ground over two and a half miles at Fairyhouse last time. A stiffer test would suit him ideally, and it could be that his main role here is to set a good pace for Melon.

It’s hard to see either of the other two, Coral Cup winner Bleu Berry, a long way behind Coquin Mans last time, and Samcro’s stable-companion The Game Changer, well beaten over fences here on Tuesday, playing much of a part.

Conclusion

Samcro faces an acid test of his claims to being a future star and his reputation could be greater still after this, but he’ll need to be top-class to beat an in-form Melon who looks the value to go one better than he did at Cheltenham.

Recommended bet:

Back Melon to win the Punchestown Champion Hurdle on Friday at 5/2