Prix Rothschild: Lumiere can light up Deauville

Deauville’s month featuring some top-class racing begins this weekend with Sunday’s Prix Rothschild for fillies and mares over the straight mile. Goldikova’s four wins in this race were followed by Elusive Kate’s double in 2012 and 2013, while both of the fillies to have won it since, Esoterique in 2014 and Amazing Maria in 2015, are back again in repeat bids of their own.

At their best, both would have leading claims of winning it again but neither has sparkled yet this year. Esoterique had rather a rushed preparation for the Queen Anne Stakes in which she was eased to finish a tailed-off last. However, she bounced back from a poor run at Royal Ascot to win this two years ago and she has an excellent record at Deauville, beating male rivals in the Prix Jacques le Marois last summer after running top sprinter Muhaarar to half a length in the Prix Maurice de Gheest just seven days earlier.

Amazing Maria was in top form this time last year in her first season with David O’Meara but the best she’s managed so far this term was a sixth place behind Tepin in the Queen Anne on ground that was probably softer than ideal. Back on a more suitable surface, she ran a rather tame race last time when finishing last in a bid to repeat last year’s success in the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket.

Among the older fillies and mares in the line-up, the strongest claims could lie instead with Impassable in the Goldikova colours of the Wertheimer brothers. She was sixth to Tepin (one place in front of Esoterique) in the Breeders’ Cup Mile last autumn after developing into a very smart three-year-old in France last year with Group 2 wins in the Prix de Sandringham and Prix Daniel Wildenstein. Impassable made her reappearance in a Group 3 contest at Chantilly last month, and whilst not running up to her best in second, she shaped well after her absence having had to come from further back than ideal.

The other four-year-olds Steip Amach (formerly with Jim Bolger) and Siyoushake face a stiff task in this company and the winner looks most likely to come from among several smart members of the classic generation in the line-up.

Qemah is sure to be popular with French punters at least as she’s been very much part of the success story of Jean-Claude Rouget’s season. She didn’t quite come up to expectations when third behind another of her stable’s top fillies La Cressonniere in the Poule d’Essai des Pouliches over this course and distance, but then confirmed earlier promise when winning the Coronation Stakes with something in hand despite not settling fully in the early stages as is typical of her.

Qemah had Alice Springs back in third at Ascot, having also finished in front of her in the French Guineas. Also third to stable-companions Minding and Ballydoyle in the 1000 Guineas, Alice Springs looked like falling just short in Group 1 company for Aidan O’Brien until readily beating mostly older rivals in the Falmouth Stakes at Newmarket earlier this month. Although she’s had plenty of racing, it could be that Alice Springs is only now beginning to fulfil her potential.

The same can certainly be said of the much more lightly-raced Lumiere who was also successful at Newmarket’s July meeting. Last year’s Cheveley Park Stakes winner was a big disappointment in the 1000 Guineas but got right back on track in impressive fashion in the listed Sir Henry Cecil Stakes at Newmarket when storming clear to win by six lengths. Lumiere saw the stiff mile out well at Newmarket, but she has plenty of speed and Deauville’s flatter track should suit her even better. Apart from Qemah’s pacemaker Positive Vibration, there’s not much pace in the race, and that too could play into the hands of Lumiere who races prominently.

The other two three-year-olds Volta and Spectre have shown smart form too but will need to improve on previous efforts in Group 1 company. Volta completed a hat-trick in good style when winning the Prix de Sandringham by four lengths with a good turn of foot. That earned her a supplementary entry for the Prix de Diane in which she ran well to finish third, but she’s probably back at her optimum trip of a mile here. German filly Spectre has run well in her last two starts, finishing just behind Qemah when fifth in the Pouliches and then taking third in the Prix Jean Prat at Chantilly.

A top-form Esoterique would set a high standard for the three-year-olds to beat and Impassable is respected too, but this can go to Lumiere whose form puts on her on a par with last-time-out Group 1 winners Qemah and Alice Springs but Mark Johnston’s filly has the most scope for further progress in a race which should be run to suit her.

Recommendation:

Back Lumiere in the Prix Rothschild

Timeform weight-adjusted ratings:

134 Esoterique

132 Impassable

130 Lumiere

130 Qemah

129 Alice Springs