Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2016: Mixed messages for highly-rated Postponed

The number 130, as it goes, is not a particularly interesting one. A quick Google search – formerly known as general knowledge – reveals that the number’s greatest claims to fame are: the number of days it took American cyclist Amanda Coker to surpass Billie Fleming’s 1938 record of 29,603.7 miles ridden in a year; the number of hours per week Yahoo CEO Marissa Mayer claimed to work when CEO of Google; and the number of the bus route from Manchester to Macclesfield.

However, when it comes to Timeform ratings, the number is pretty significant. Horses with a master rating of 130 and above are deemed to be ‘Top Class’ and there aren’t many which can claim that moniker. Indeed, at the time of writing, only eight horses (out of the thousands in training) are rated 130 or higher. Four are American, two are British, while France and Japan have one apiece. However, only one is heading for Sunday’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Chantilly: Postponed.

Postponed is a veritable winning machine, having won five times in thirteen starts for Luca Cumani, as well as four subsequent starts in 2016 for new trainer Roger Varian. His master rating of 132 has been attained thanks to career-best efforts when winning the Dubai Sheema Classic (by two lengths from Duramente) at Meydan in March and when completing a six-timer in the Juddmonte International Stakes at York last time by one and a quarter lengths from Highland Reel, travelling well to lead three furlongs out and keeping on well despite hanging right late on.

Supporters of the general 2/1 favourite may be asking themselves a series of questions, probably including, but not limited to: Is Postponed likely to repeat his best form; and will a repeat of his best form be enough to win?

The first question can be answered fairly emphatically using Postponed’s past performances. He improved in each of his first eight career starts and since then has only run more than 3 lb below form once – and then only by 5 lb - in nine outings. That is a truly phenomenal record and there is an argument to say that he is one of - if not the most - consistent horses in training. He handles any ground, gets this mile and a half trip well, and is an uncomplicated ride. Plenty of ticks there.

The answer to the second question, using data from winning performances in the Arc over the last decade, is more ambiguous. Postponed will be top-rated on Sunday and his supporters might be slightly perturbed by the fact that only one top-rated horse has won the Arc in the last ten years: the 140-rated Sea The Stars who triumphed in 2009. However, all is not lost - half of the winners in the last decade have been rated 130 or higher, and Postponed is the only horse that fits into that bracket this year. To boot, Postponed’s pre-race master rating is greater than all bar three of the last 10 winners (Dylan Thomas ‘07, Sea The Stars ‘09, Golden Horn ‘15).

Postponed has run to a performance rating of 130 on two of his last three starts. The mean average performance rating of the last 10 Arc winners (before any retrospective adjustments) is a rather convenient 129.9. There is always a danger that, were we to rely solely on the figure above, we would be falling into the trap of Andrew Lang’s fine quote about politicians using statistics ‘in the same way that a drunk uses lamp-posts—for support rather than illumination’, however there are many other factors to consider when assessing Postponed’s chance: his undoubted superiority over middle distances this season, his consistency, his genuineness.

Ultimately, there is (the crucial) third question: Will Postponed win the Arc on Sunday?

The gut-feeling answer: Yes.