Prix de Diane: Vive la résistance!

Only seven of the 20 French two-year-old pattern races in 2018 were kept at home as British-trained youngsters carried off most of the prizes, while of the 27 Group 1 races staged there last season, only 14 were won by horses trained in France. However, as ParisLongchamp attempts to get its gold-plated investment back with inflated Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe day ticket prices, it would appear – from the early stages of this season at least – that the French trainers themselves are intent on clawing back silverware of their own.

Firstly, Waldgeist regained the Prix Ganay for Andre Fabre. He had needed a run or two to hit form in previous seasons, but proved at least as good as ever on his return after ending last term below his best at the Breeders' Cup and in Hong Kong. Waited with in third once they'd sorted themselves into single file, he led entering the final furlong before drawing clear in the last half-furlong, as strong at the finish as you’d expect from a horse who has done most of his running (and winning) over a mile and a half. That top-level win over ten furlongs will add plenty of appeal when the time comes for him to go to stud, and he'll continue to be a leading contender for this season’s top middle-distance prizes, with the Prince of Wales’s Stakes at Royal Ascot seemingly next on his agenda.

Then it was the turn of Persian King, whose dam is closely related to the Ganay winner Planteur, to take centre stage, though his workmanlike victory in the Poule d'Essai des Poulains was some way below the form he had shown when beating subsequent 2000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia in last year’s Autumn Stakes. Persian King was subsequently sent off favourite for the Prix du Jockey Club at Chantilly, but, having hit the front with over a furlong to run, he ultimately came up short in his bid for a classic double, quite readily outgunned in the closing stages by the very progressive Sottsass. Trained by Jean-Claude Rouget, Sottsass showed further improvement for the slight step up in trip; he looks sure to stay a mile and half and is very much the type who will make his mark against older horses when the time comes, receiving quotes of around 12/1 for the Arc in October on the back of his Chantilly success.

Imperious - Sottsass powered to Prix du Jockey Club success this afternoon at @fgchantilly, and now looks a serious Group 1 horse for the rest of the flat season... pic.twitter.com/4oEeZatQr3

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) June 2, 2019

In contrast to Ireland, where Aidan O’Brien has dominated once more, the French success has been spread across the country’s leading stables, including that of Alain de Royer-Dupré, who took the Prix Saint-Alary courtesy of Siyarafina. From a fine Aga Khan family, she had made an excellent impression in lesser company and, upped in trip, overcame the rise in class to maintain her unbeaten record under just a hands-and-heels ride. She's an exciting prospect, looking potentially the best French three-year-old filly, if not that already; her earlier wins came in a newcomers’ race at Saint-Cloud and a minor event at Longchamp, with her beating of Commes on the latter occasion – when barely coming off the bridle – giving some idea of her potential in group company.

Commes went agonisingly close in the Poule d'Essai des Pouliches subsequently, when finding only compatriot Castle Lady too strong. Like Siyarafina, Castle Lady is now unbeaten in three starts; the Henri-Alex Pantall-trained filly didn’t need to improve significantly on her Prix de la Grotte win, but showed plenty of determination to hold on back at Lonchamp a month later, just a nose separating her and Commes at the line. The Kevin Ryan-trained East was third, equalling the best placing for a British-trained runner in the Group 1 races held in France at that point, up until the victory of Zabeel Prince in the Prix d'Ispahan 30 minutes later.

That was Zabeel Prince’s first venture outside of England, but he’s bred as much for the dirt of Kentucky as the (problematic) renovated turf of Longchamp, being by the French Derby winner Lope de Vega but out of a modest mare who is from the family of the champion US filly Serena's Song. While Zabeel Prince has taken time to get his first Group 1 at the age of six, patience has also been key to the success of Siyarafina and Castle Lady, neither of whom raced as two-year-olds. Indeed, with a substandard three-year-old crop and the two-year-olds often struggling against British opposition, it was Andre Fabre’s older pair Cloth of Stars and Waldgeist who topped the French ratings in 2018 after completing the frame behind Enable and Sea of Class in the Arc.

The image above shows the average pre-race master ratings in French Group 1s since 2013.

As you can see, the quality of British and Irish runners – with the exception of the outlier of 2014 which featured a denser concentration of talent crossing the Channel led by Olympic Glory – has remained fairly consistent.

The French average has traditionally been a notch lower, but again saw its own spike, this time in the following 2015 season. That campaign saw the older brigade of Treve, Solow and Flintshire supported more ably by the three-year-olds New Bay, Make Believe and Vazirabad than had been the case 12 months previous.

The discrepancy so far in 2019 is worth treating with a degree of caution. Obviously there is a small sample size (six races), and the majority of season-defining performances (in terms of ratings at least) aren’t recorded until later in the season, when the best horses clash in contests like the Arc.

It’s also worth noting that the best three-year-old performances recorded so far this season – by the likes of Siyarafina, Castle Lady and Sottsass – have been produced by horses who were either unraced at two or didn’t get the opportunity to return big figures. As a result, the pre-race ratings of these big improvers ahead of the Group 1 races this season have been low compared to their British and Irish counterparts, most of whom were rated on what they achieved at a high level at two.

There’s also the consideration that – generally – only horses with a realistic chance of winning will journey over from Britain and Ireland, whereas the graph above includes a greater number of French-trained runners who could only be classed as lively outsiders at best, so the average is slightly skewed.

Clearly though, with French-trained horses winning five of the six Group 1s there this season, the signs are that 2019 will be a much more successful season for French racing, and it’s much needed, too, with the criticism of Longchamp’s redevelopment and the closure of Maisons-Laffitte creating a somewhat toxic atmosphere. The news that Maisons-Laffitte would be closing at the end of 2019, as France Galop seeks to cut costs, was met with dismay in some quarters – Alain de Royer-Dupré described the planned closure as a ‘catastrophe’ – but the track suffered as a consequence of bad weather earlier in the year, when flooding from the nearby Seine meant the Guineas trials, the Prix Djebel and Prix Imprudence, had to be run at Deauville.

Apart from Maisons-Laffitte, France Galop also runs the Parisian tracks of Longchamp, Auteuil and Saint-Cloud, as well as Chantilly and Deauville. They could benefit from any planned closure of Maisons-Laffitte, though there has been a rallying cry amongst the French horse racing community to try and find alternative solutions.

Closer on the horizon, Sunday’s Prix de Diane – the trophy for which has traditionally stayed on French shores, at least until recently – looked as if it might provide a chance for this exciting brigade of French fillies to test their mettle against the leading filly in Europe, Hermosa. Rated 120p by Timeform after wins in both the English and Irish 1000 Guineas, the Galileo filly is bred to improve for the longer trip, but looks likely to remain at a mile for the time being, with the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot nominated as her next assignment.

Aidan O’Brien has so far failed to win the Diane, so rather than possible Hermosa-substitute Happen, who won a Group 3 at the Curragh last month, the leading British/Irish-trained contender could be Maqsad. Her connections have also spoken of the Coronation as a possible target, but they must be tempted to revert to their original plan of running the Pretty Polly winner here if she has come out of her Oaks run well (would have an extra five days to recover if heading to the Royal meeting).

Stamina doesn’t look so assured for Castle Lady (all-out to win the Pouliches and from the family of Raven’s Pass, whose only win over further than a mile came around the tight turns of Santa Anita), and the suggestion is that she might also wait for the Coronation, a race won by French trainers in 2011, 2015 and 2016. Instead, it is Siyarafina – according to the ante-post betting at least – who will spearhead the home team in the Diane, one that may also include the previously mentioned Commes, who is bred to improve for this longer trip, and her stablemate Etoile, winner of three of her four starts to date, including the Prix Cleopatre at Saint-Cloud last time.

At a price, Rocques is one to watch for. She produced her best effort when fifth in the Prix de la Grotte (three lengths behind Castle Lady) on her reappearance, and though well held in both the Pouliches and Prix de Sandringham since, she’s bred to improve for this longer trip (half-sister to 10.5f winner Romance d'Amour and out of a mare who won up to 11f in Italy) and has already proven she has plenty of stamina herself, having won over a mile as a two-year-old.