Prince of Wales's Stakes: Dream Boat can sail into the places

After Ascot was hit with half a month’s rainfall in an hour on Friday, and with more rain forecast from now until Tuesday, it seems more and more likely that soft will feature in the going description for at least the first two of days of Royal Ascot 2016.

This is certainly a rarity. Soft has not once featured in Timeform’s official description of the going in the traditional Royal Ascot curtain raiser – the Queen Anne Stakes – this century, while you have to go back to 1998 to find the first time Wednesday’s feature race, the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, was last run on ground slower than good.

This year’s Prince of Wales’s currently has nine runners still left in at the five-day stage, but it would be no surprise if there were some significant withdrawals between now and Wednesday given that last year’s unlucky second The Grey Gatsby and current 5/1-chance Time Test both missed their intended engagements in the Tattersalls Gold Cup in May due to testing ground.

Time Test has since put up a career-best effort when winning the Brigadier Gerard at Sandown under a 5 lb Group 2 penalty, but firmer ground seems ideal for him (impressive winner of the Tercentenary Stakes on firm ground and was then below form on good to soft ground in the Juddmonte International) and it is hard to make a case for him as things stand.

Based on their form to date it is also difficult to imagine that either Tryster or Highland Reel will be seen to best effect on ground with plenty of cut in it, either, while the likes of Western Hymn and Covert Love, who do at least have some form on a softer surface, probably lack the class to win this.

Prior to last month’s Prix d’Ispahan, it would have also been easy to be sceptical about the chances of Japanese raider A Shin Hikari on a softer surface, seeing as all his form – including his career-best effort in the Hong Kong Cup in December – has been on quicker ground. However, his spectacular European debut at Chantilly last month on going described as soft means that his supporters will not have been as alarmed as some to see the rain arrive at Ascot. That win, where he beat Prix Ganay winner Dariyan by seven (though officially called 10) lengths, was the best performance seen on Timeform ratings in Europe this year, and it is no surprise to see him now touching odds-on in places with conditions having gone against many of his main rivals.

A Shin Hikari looks hard to oppose for win purposes (5 lb clear of the field on Timeform ratings) but there is definitely an each-way case to be made for My Dream Boat, who was well beaten by the favourite at Chantilly last time (though did get involved in a bumping match with Silverwave) but prior to that had been progressive, winning the Gordon Richards Stakes at Sandown with a career best on his return. Perhaps crucially, My Dream Boat’s win in the Prix Perth at Saint-Cloud last season came on soft ground, and as the outsider of the current field of nine, he makes some appeal for each-way purposes.

It is also worth mentioning Found, who has been busy this season, having had four outings already including the Coronation Cup on Derby day. She is not guaranteed to run, but would be a real contender if she did show up, and if the likes of Time Test and The Grey Gatsby are below form or do not run due to the ground, she could be the biggest danger to A Shin Hikari for win purposes.

Recommendation:

Back My Dream Boat each-way at 20/1 for the Prince of Wales’s Stakes