Preakness Stakes: Stradivari can dent Triple Crown dream

Last year’s running of the Preakness Stakes took place in the aftermath of a thunderstorm that turned the track into a sea of slop. With the Baltimore weather forecast looking wet for this weekend, there is every chance that the 2016 renewal will be run under similar conditions.

Froma punting perspective that makes things a little tricky.

Unbeaten Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist won the Florida Derby on what was officially a ‘good’ track, although that surface was drying out after rain earlier in the day. His form on a sloppy surface is unproven, and that is more than likely going to be the prevailing terrain on Saturday, should the forecasters prove correct.

Those conditions will pose no problems to Nyquist’s vanquished foe at Churchill Downs, Exaggerator. He proved his ability to handle a wet track with aplomb when coming from the clouds to record a facile victory in what was a speedily-run Santa Anita Derby. The fact is, though, that every time Exaggerator has run into Nyquist he has been defeated. Four times, in fact.

That is a hard statistic to overlook.

For all the talk of track conditions, however, the fact remains that Nyquist now boasts a record of 8 wins from 8 starts. That, too, is hard statistic to overlook. Everything that has been thrown his way he has handled, including an incredibly tough trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile when hung wide throughout.

Nyquist is by far the most likely winner, but at his current odds of around 4/7, you aren’t going to get rich backing him.

Aside from Exaggerator, credible opposition to the Kentucky Derby victor in this year’s renewal of the Preakness is pretty thin on the ground.

Some will look to Collected, trained by last year’s Triple Crown-winning handler Bob Baffert, for a possible upset. An impressive winner of his last two starts, including the Grade 3 Lexington Stakes at Keeneland last time, Collected would appear to have a fair chance. The knock on his claims are his race times – he simply hasn’t yet run a time that marks him out as a Classic winner.

Japanese raider Lani – rapidly gaining cult status in the US for his erratic and often aggressive manner – is what some are terming the ‘wise guy’ horse. The UAE Derby winner started slowly in the Kentucky Derby, and had something of a rough passage, before staying on into ninth place. However, starting slowly is becoming something of an increasing trait in this horse’s make-up, and another slow start in the Preakness will probably compromise him completely.

The most intriguing contender in the race is undoubtedly Todd Pletcher’s Stradivari. Having made just three starts, he lacks the experience of his Preakness rivals, but could hardly have been more impressive in winning his last two – a maiden and an allowance contest – by a combined total of nearly twenty six lengths. His last win was recorded in a very fast time, and he was barely off the bridle when sauntering away from some useful opposition. The Timeform form rating he recorded there (116p) puts him within hailing distance of the best in the Preakness, and he could well be worth chancing at what is a fair price.

Stradivari is very much the new kid on the block in Classic terms, but if he can get organised from the outside post position, he could well find himself hangin’ tough in the final furlong as he attempts to fend off the likes of Nyquist and Exaggerator.

Recommendation:

Back Stradivari at 9/1 in the Preakness Stakes