Phoenix Stakes Preview: Caravaggio to prove king of the Curragh

The Group 1 Phoenix Stakes takes centre stage at the Curragh on Sunday and is a race trainer Aidan O'Brien has won a remarkable 14 times since taking over at Ballydoyle in 1996. The likes of George Washington and Mastercraftsman have landed the six furlong contest en route to Classic success the following year, while this race formed the first leg of a Group 1 treble for last year's champion two-year-old, Air Force Blue.

O'Brien saddles two of the five runners engaged this time round and, in the shape of Caravaggio, he has a horse that has achieved more on Timeform ratings than any of his previous winners had at the same stage of their careers. 

Caravaggio made his racecourse debut on the all-weather at Dundalk in April and, although it's hardly unusual for the yard to have an odds on debutant, the weight of confidence behind him on that occasion spoke volumes. He showed signs of greenness when asked to deliver his challenge, but was most impressive once in full flow and looked a potentially smart prospect as he shot to the head of affairs in the final furlong. 

His American pedigree (by Scat Daddy, out of a minor stakes winner) raised doubts about his ability to act on soft ground and he was forced to answer those questions when returning to action in the following month's Marble Hill Stakes at the Curragh. He was again backed as if defeat was out of the question, though, and maintained his unbeaten record with the minimum of fuss, coping well with the ease underfoot and readily pulling clear under a hands-and-heels ride.  

He comes into Sunday's race on the back of a thoroughly dominant success in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot and that effort identified him as the best two-year-old colt to have graced a racecourse so far this year. He was arguably value for more than the official winning margin on that occasion, forced to deliver his challenge on the disadvantaged side of the track and forging clear despite hanging to his right in the closing stages. 

That may not have been the strongest renewal of the Coventry in recent memory, but the form has been boosted by the runner-up Mehmas, who has since won the the July Stakes at Newmarket and the Richmond Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. Five of O’Brien’s previous seven Coventry winners ran in the Phoenix Stakes next time and, although only Fasliyev in 1999 was successful, Caravaggio is 14 lb clear of Medicine Jack on ratings and can consolidate his position as next year's 2000 Guineas favourite (already as short as 3/1) with victory on Sunday.

Medicine Jack showed improved form to open his account at the third time of asking at Naas in May and took another step forward when landing the Railway Stakes on his most recent outing over this C&D. That form has also received a boost in recent weeks (runner-up and stablemate of Caravaggio, Peace Envoy, was a ready winner of the Anglesey Stakes here three weeks ago) and - open to more improvement after just four starts in his short career to date - Medicine Jack looks the only feasible danger to the favourite.

Indeed, the remaining trio - namely Ambiguity, Courage Under Fire and Grand Coalition - have some 19 lb to find with the front pair on ratings and the €22,500 on offer for third looks the best they can hope to collect.

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The Group 3 Phoenix Sprint Stakes is the chief supporting race on Sunday and looks a far more open contest, with no standout candidate among the seven runners set to go to post for the €60,000 prize. Air Force Blue, the aforementioned Phoenix Stakes winner in 2015, would fit the bill if reproducing that level of form and he showed signs of a revival when down the field in last month's July Cup at Newmarket. 

He looks likely to be short enough on what he has achieved this year, though, and the reliable Fort del Oro looks a better bet at the prices. She wasn't seen to best effect when second on her penultimate outing at this level (forced to deliver her challenge out wide and conceding first run to the winner) and bounced back with a smooth success in a listed race at Naas recently.

That form leaves her 2 lb clear of all bar Air Force Blue on Timeform ratings and, representing a yard that won this with the high-class Slade Power in 2013, Fort del Oro is preferred to Toscanini, who appeared to have his stamina stretched over seven furlongs here last time.