Old Roan Chase Preview: Don is the one

Considering that Sunday’s meeting at Aintree is the venue for Timeform’s annual staff outing, there is understandably more pressure on this feature to find a winner than usual, and its feature race, the Old Roan Chase, has proven to be a particular puzzle, too, with only one favourite obliging in the past ten renewals – the Nick Williams-trained For Non Stop, who was a joint favourite when scoring in 2012.

The market principals

It is no surprise to see Cloudy Dream head the market at the time of writing, having been a regular in Graded company last season, including when finishing third in the Ryanair Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. He makes his first start for the Donald McCain team in this, having switched from Ruth Jefferson, and will have every chance if bringing his best form to the table, considering that he has twice won on reappearance in the past. However, he has become something of an infrequent winner since graduating from novice company, and went through last term winless. He ran well in this race last year, finishing second, and another bold bid is likely, though he could well find one too strong in the closing stages.

In terms of Timeform’s weight-adjusted ratings, Cloudy Dream has a considerable amount to find (4 lb to be precise) with Frodon, who has had a wind operation since his final start of 2017/18. Frodon was remarkably progressive as a novice chaser in the 2016/17 season, and perhaps suffered from second-season syndrome last term, recording only one win in eight starts. That win came in a Grade 3 handicap chase at Cheltenham in January, where he produced a high-class performance to blitz the field off top weight, eventually winning by 17 lengths. He failed to repeat that in three subsequent starts, but he had excuses for each, and provided he’s ready to go, he looks to have leading claims of carrying top weight to success once again here, considering that he has won on reappearance in the past.

Frodon and Bryony Frost win the Crest Nicholson Handicap Chase @CheltenhamRaces - Watch LIVE on @ITV4 pic.twitter.com/s3LpG688Xo

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) January 27, 2018

Intriguing alternatives

Value At Risk is no stranger to performing well with the company in attendance, scoring in a Timeform-sponsored novice chase at Bangor in October 2016, but he has been rather hit and miss during his chasing career, disappointing on several occasions. When things do click, however, he is capable of useful form, winning a listed handicap chase at Ayr in April, and he would be a threat if on a going day. The same can be said for Flying Angel, a Grade 1-winning novice chaser in the Manifesto here in April 2017, who has largely struggled to replicate that in six starts since. He failed to show any improvement for a breathing operation on his most recent start, when finishing down the field in the Topham here in April, and, for all that he is on a competitive mark, he requires a leap of faith at present.

Best of the rest

An intriguing contender is Javert, whose profile is a curious one, considering he returned from a 29-month absence to win at Uttoxeter last month, taking his record over fences to 4-4 when completing, with just two unseats standing in the way of a perfect record. He looked as if he retained all of his ability on his reappearance and, whilst he would need more to take this, he is lightly raced for a nine-year-old, and is a fascinating inclusion. Voix D’eau is a year younger than Jalvert, but he has had far more practice, kept busy throughout the summer and taking advantage of his slipping mark when winning at Worcester in July. He disappointed on his next start, but bounced back to form to score at Southwell last time, looking every bit as good as ever in the process, and it will be interesting to see whether Lucinda Russell can squeeze out some more improvement now switched to her yard. Strictly on weight-adjusted ratings, Ramses De Teille only has 1 lb to find with Frodon in this and, whilst he suggested that his mark was a competitive one when finishing down the field in a Grade 2 handicap at Cheltenham on his most recent start in April, this looks tougher.

One of the more prolific runners in the field is Theo, who arrives here on a roll having completed a double at Worcester last month, taking his strike rate for the Dr Richard Newland team over fences to 4-6 (when completing). He’s in fine heart, though is opposable under a 6 lb rise, which has taken him to a BHA mark of 141. Templehills also arrives here on the back of a success, making the most of a good opportunity to win on reappearance at Warwick just over three weeks ago. He has been given a 7 lb rise for that, and like Theo, will find this far tougher. 

Conclusion

In summary, this looks a good opportunity for Frodon to begin his season with a success. He showed high-class form when winning a Grade 3 handicap off top weight at Cheltenham in January and will be difficult to beat from just 4 lb higher in this. He gets the vote to score for Paul Nicholls, ahead of Cloudy Dream, who showed very smart form last season, but did so without picking up a win and is likely to find Frodon too strong on Sunday.

Recommendation

Back Frodon to win Sunday's Old Roan Chase at 11/2