Oisin Murphy: Charting the rise of the champion jockey

Oisin Murphy enjoyed arguably the biggest success of his career on Champions Day 12 months ago, courtesy of the ill-fated Roaring Lion in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, the proverbial icing on the cake in the year he really made the breakthrough at the highest level with nine Group 1 wins.

As impressive as that return was, however, Timeform use an altogether different metric when it comes to measuring jockey performance, namely their run-to-form rating, a concept my former colleague Jamie Lynch addressed back in August 2017.

‘Racing is all about winning, but good jockeyship isn’t, as all the rider can reasonably do is get the best out of their horse, with the add-ons of awareness and adaptability which can maximise their chance of getting to the line first.

‘Timeform’s renovated run-to-form metric accounts for a wider range of rider skill than simple strike-rates ever can, especially as it’s harmonised with the digital data from the reporting team, and it enables calculated comparisons not just between riders, but between seasons. In other words, you can chart which jockeys are getting better.’

That article served to highlight the five most-improved jockeys of 2017 – by comparing their run-to-form data from that season to that of the previous three (had to have at least 100 rides in each) – and, in his entry at number two, Oisin Murphy was put forward as ‘destined to be champion jockey one day’ having progressed his RTF% to 64.1 (an increase of 8.8).

Murphy also fared well by this metric in that memorable 2018 campaign, ending the year with a slight upgrade to 64.9%, and this season has seen him go to another level again.

Indeed, the 24-year-old’s run-to-form ratio has jumped up to 67.6% in 2019, despite his tally of rides now being well into four figures at 1077, his consistency in the face of such a heavy workload being something to really admire. Similar comments apply to the versatility he has demonstrated, an attribute that is highlighted in the visualisation below.

Using unique Timeform data, including EPFs (Early Position Figures), it illustrates just what a complete jockey Murphy has become. The fact that the RTF% of every race position – from the front (EPF 1) to the back (5) – is in green tells you that he’s outperforming the ‘average’ jockey in every department, and an all-green screen like his is achieved only by those at the very top of their profession.

As if that was in any doubt, Murphy’s place in the big leagues is set to receive the ultimate seal of approval this weekend, when he realises the fate predicted for him back in 2017.

His RTF% may be significant in its own way, but it is winners that count most to a jockey, and the 166 Murphy has recorded so far this season ensure he will be crowned champion for the first time on Champions Day after a hard-fought battle with Daniel Tudhope during the summer.

It is only in recent weeks that Murphy – who is 33 winners ahead at the time of writing – has extended his advantage to the point where he can rest easy, with the difference still being only 10 when he brought up his century aboard Kyllang Rock at Nottingham in August.

The smart Kyllang Rock canters into proceedings and, under @oismurphy for the first time, strikes for James Tate in the big race at @NottsRacecourse pic.twitter.com/JHv7ULeMPt

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) August 13, 2019

Indeed, it was the following month that ultimately proved decisive, with Murphy recording 36 winners compared to Tudhope’s 18 in September, including a most impressive success for Benbatl in the Joel Stakes at Newmarket, a performance that now sees him challenging for favouritism in this weekend’s Queen Elizabeth II Stakes.

Murphy is likely to enjoy the occasion on Saturday whatever the outcome of the six races, but it would be extra sweet if he could add to his tally on the day when everyone gathers to celebrates the achievements of the season’s champions. In Benbatl, Murphy looks to have a leading chance of victory.

It would likely give Murphy extra satisfaction to do it for Saeed bin Suroor, who has been one of his most loyal supporters this season. Only two trainers have provided him with more winners in 2019 – Andrew Balding (35) and Archie Watson (22) – and the combination has proved a lucrative one to follow, too, with Murphy’s 17 winners (from 53 rides) for the stable returning a level-stakes profit of £14.80.

As for Benbatl, he has already given Murphy some of the biggest days of his career, winning a pair of Group 1s before finishing second in Australia’s premier weight-for-age contest, the Cox Plate, in 2018.

Benbatl makes an impressive return to action, winning the Shadwell Joel Stakes at @NewmarketRace

Watch #ITVRacing LIVE on @ITV4 pic.twitter.com/dCBiiwyyfI

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) September 27, 2019

His Newmarket win after 11 months off suggested that he has returned as good as ever, and though the testing conditions here are a slight concern, Murphy is understandably looking forward to being reunited with the horse he described as ‘the best around’ after the Joel.

Murphy is likely to be similarly excited about the prospect of riding Deirdre in the Champion Stakes, the Japanese raider who provided him with the most recent of his two Group 1 wins this season in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood.

That historic win showed she has the ability to mix it with the very best on these shores, and she was unlucky not to finish closer when fourth in the Irish Champion Stakes at Leopardstown last time, forced to wait for a gap at the top of the straight and doing well under the circumstances to be beaten only two and three quarter lengths.

"He got quite a check at a vital point in the race"@franmberry looks back at the rough passage endured by the unlucky Deirdre in yesterday's QIPCO Irish Champion Stakes#LuckOnSunday #LICW19@ABE_Dubai pic.twitter.com/Ogeb6ssBt3

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) September 15, 2019

Murphy will be keen to make amends for that luckless run here and his mount shouldn’t be underestimated, for all that she would probably prefer a sounder surface, too.

By contrast, Champions Sprint contender The Tin Man – Murphy’s other flagship ride on Champions Day – is unlikely to be inconvenienced by the heavy ground on the straight track as he bids to repeat his 2016 win in the race (also fifth and seventh in the last two renewals).

Admittedly, the going was good to firm on the Timeform scale that day, but he has plenty of form in the book on an easy surface, notably when winning last year’s Sprint Cup at Haydock on soft, and James Fanshawe’s charge looks to be coming to the boil on the evidence of his effort in the latest renewal of that race, when finding only Hello Youmzain too strong.

Hello Youmzain holds off The Tin Man to land the Group 1 Betfair Sprint Cup Stakes under @the_doyler, for @kevinryanracing 👏👏 pic.twitter.com/hYxhSGWYFn

— Haydock Park Races (@haydockraces) September 7, 2019

Murphy has also been booked by Willie Mullins to ride 33/1-shot Max Dynamite in the Long Distance Cup, while it is John Gosden – for whom Murphy can boast a 36% strike rate (8/22) in 2019 – who provides him with his other two mounts on the card, namely Sparkle Roll in the Fillies & Mares Stakes and Kick On in the Balmoral Handicap.

The former looks up against it judged on the balance of her form this season, but Kick On is more interesting on handicap debut, having produced a smart performance to win a Group 3 at Salisbury last time.