Nunthorpe Stakes preview: Sovereigns the pick in race to savour

The five-furlong Nunthorpe Stakes has recently developed a reputation for being one of the most unpredictable Group 1s in the Flat calendar.

Since 2010, there have been only seven Group 1 winners in the UK and Ireland who returned an SP of 40/1 or bigger, and three of them did so in the Nunthorpe – Sole Power (100/1) in 2010, Jwala (40/1) in 2013 and Alpha Delphini (40/1) 12 months ago. Could we be in for another surprise this year, or will hot favourite Ten Sovereigns buck the trends to follow up his July Cup win and provide trainer Aidan O’Brien with a third win in the race?

Unbeaten in three starts at two, including the Middle Park Stakes, Ten Sovereigns proved better than ever when doubling his Group 1 tally in the July Cup at Newmarket (by two and three quarter lengths from Advertise, well on top at the finish) last time, bouncing back from defeats in the 2000 Guineas and Commonwealth Cup to confirm himself a high-class sprinter.

It's back-to-back @DarleyStallions July Cup victories for the brilliant Ryan Moore following an emphatic win on board the Aidan O'Brien-trained Ten Sovereigns.#JulyFestival pic.twitter.com/tSOtZhBAHe

— Newmarket Racecourse (@NewmarketRace) July 13, 2019

The runner-up gave that form a boost when winning the Prix Maurice de Gheest on his next start, and though the drop back in trip here is a slight concern, the speed that Ten Sovereigns demonstrated at Newmarket suggests that it won’t be an issue, while there is no finer man to prepare him for the task than Aidan O’Brien. Indeed, this is a well-trodden path for O’Brien, with Stravinsky (1999) and Mozart (2001) both having followed up their July Cup wins in this race, despite having no previous experience of racing at the minimum trip.

The chief danger to Ten Sovereigns looks to be Battaash. Charlie Hill’s charge is a top-class performer on his day, with his 2017 wins in the King George Stakes at Goodwood and Prix de l’Abbaye at Chantilly amongst the best efforts produced by any sprinter at this trip for many years, and he didn’t need to be at his very best to win the first-named event for the third year in succession last time, again giving weight and a beating to some very smart rivals.

The main concern with him, however, is that he is yet to give his running when well fancied in two previous attempts at this race, most recently finishing two and a half lengths behind Alpha Delphini when sent off the 5/4-on favourite 12 months ago. In theory, the flat five-furlong track at York is one that should play to the strengths of this speedy sort, but it certainly hasn’t as yet, and there are enough to doubts to make him opposable at around the 9/4-mark.

A huge upset in the @coolmorestud Nunthorpe Stakes!

A photo finish was called, but it was Alpha Delphini (40-1) who got the verdict from Mabs Cross in a thriller. #Ebor pic.twitter.com/CIyQSPTmZY

— York Racecourse (@yorkracecourse) August 24, 2018

Mabs Cross fared better than Battaash when going down by just a nose in this race last year, before signing off that season with a deserved Group 1 success in the Prix de l’Abbaye at Longchamp, staying on strongly under Gerald Mosse – who is back in the saddle again here in place of Paul Mulrennan – to get the verdict by a head.

Better than ever when defying a Group 1 penalty to win the Palace House Stakes on her return at Newmarket in May, this has been her target since finishing fourth (two and three quarters lengths behind Blue Point, Battaash second and Soldier’s Call third) in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot in June, and there is no reason why this consistent sort shouldn’t give another good account.

Soldier’s Call surpassed the pick of his juvenile form – which included a verdict over Battaash when they finished third and fourth in the Abbaye – when third in the King’s Stand, and he did so in tenacious fashion, leading overall down the centre and, though headed just over a furlong out, sticking on well thereafter to edge out Mabs Cross for the minor placing.

You have to be special to be a dual King's Stand Stakes winner 👏

Blue Point got the better of his old rival Battaash on Tuesday at #RoyalAscot 🐎🔵 pic.twitter.com/6s16fEIIpb

— Ascot Racecourse (@Ascot) June 23, 2019

Admittedly, he failed to build on that when only fourth in the Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh last time, but there were excuses on the day, with the race possibly coming too soon after such a big effort at the Royal meeting. Given plenty of time to recover since, he is very much the type to bounce back, with a consistent profile on the whole, and it would be no surprise if he was involved in the battle for the places again, with his way of going ideally suited to the flat terrain of the Knavesmire.

Garrus has already beaten Soldier’s Call this season, when winning a listed race over C&D in May, though there was only a neck between them at the line, and he may struggle to uphold the form here with Archie Watson’s charge, who is 5 lb better off at the weights.

The three-year-old challenge is completed by King George fourth Rumble Inthejungle, who has plenty to find on the balance of his form, and the fillies Fairyland and So Perfect, who were last seen finishing third and fifth, respectively, behind stablemate Ten Sovereigns in the July Cup.

Of that pair, Fairyland looks best equipped for the drop back to five furlongs here, having been beaten only three lengths when fifth in the King’s Stand on her previous start. A winner of the Lowther Stakes at this meeting 12 months ago, she possibly lacks the instant acceleration needed for success at this level over the minimum trip, but there is no doubt that she is a smart filly, one who will likely be coming home stronger than most at the finish.

The first-ever three-times winner of the King George Qatar Stakes

Battaash ⚡⚡⚡

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📱 https://t.co/Gic4fP8tJm #GloriousGoodwood #QGF #ITVRacing pic.twitter.com/zRNTpfwslm

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) August 2, 2019

Mabs Cross is joined in the line-up by stablemate Intense Romance, who would possibly need softer ground than this to be seen to best effect, while Yorkshire-based trainers are also set to be represented by three horses who chased home Battaash at Goodwood, namely the third Ornate, fifth El Astronaute and seventh Copper Knight.

They were all in receipt of 3 lb from Battaash when comfortably beaten by him on the Sussex Downs, and while that rival’s poor record at York offers them a glimmer of hope, it is still hard to see them reversing the form.

Conclusion

This has the makings of a fascinating renewal, with Battaash and Ten Sovereigns going head-to-head. Both horses bring very different profiles into the race – one a five-year-old who has excelled at five furlongs and the other a three-year-old who is yet to experience racing at the minimum trip – but one attribute that they do share is extraordinary talent.

Choosing between them is not easy, but the fact that Battaash has flopped in two previous attempts at this race could just tilt the balance in Ten Sovereigns’ favour, with his dominant performance in last month’s July Cup still fresh in the memory. Mabs Cross and Soldier’s Call complete the shortlist.

Recommendation:

Back Ten Sovereigns at 6/4 in Friday's Nunthorpe Stakes at York