Nunthorpe Stakes Position Map Preview: Prince can repay each way

The Nunthorpe Stakes is always a fast and furious race, usually made up of the best sprinters around all battling it out on one of the fastest five-furlong tracks in the country. The pace map below suggests that this year’s renewal will also be strongly run, with usual front runners Alpha Delphini, Caspian Prince and Take Cover all likely to be well to the fore in the early stages.

Caspian Prince is now a nine-year-old, but he has proved at least as good ever since joining Mick Appleby this year, notably when winning a useful handicap at Musselburgh and finishing second in the Sapphire Stakes at the Curragh. He has winning form at this course, having won a handicap at this meeting in 2015, and this speedy track will suit his run style – he has an average EPF of 1.02 – so he makes a fair bit of each-way appeal.

Take Cover bounced back to form when four lengths second to Battaash in the King George Stakes at Goodwood last time, in a race and track that he has a good record in. It’s hard to think that he will be able to reverse that form, though.

The Charlie Hills-trained Battaash proved himself the best sprinter around when winning the King George for the second year running last time, producing the best performance – on Timeform’s scale – seen at any distance in Britain this year, showing an electric display of speed at another fast five-furlong track. He beat himself in this race last year, his temperament getting the better of him, but he has been much more relaxed and composed before his races this season, and it is hard to envisage him being beaten if in anywhere near the same form as at Goodwood last time.

Performance of the week @Goodwood_Races?

Battaash is now the strong favourite for The Coolmore Nunthorpe Stakes @yorkracecourse, can he win his first #championsseries race? 🤔 pic.twitter.com/MUkUADjr0U

— Champions Series (@ChampionsSeries) August 5, 2018

Blue Point beat Battaash in the King’s Stand Stakes at Royal Ascot earlier in the year, though, and connections will be hoping he can bounce back to that sort of form returned to the minimum trip. He was below form in the July Cup over six furlongs at Newmarket last time, failing to settle fully and ultimately fading in the final furlong. The return to this trip should see him in a better light, but he had plenty go his way when beating Battaash at Royal Ascot, and whether he will be able to catch that rival on this much speedier track is in question.

Four-year-old filly Mabs Cross finished behind that duo in third at Royal Ascot, ridden more patiently and somewhat flattered to nearly nick second off the gung-ho Battaash on the line, who was flagging by then. She wasn’t disgraced in the Sapphire Stakes last time, though not quite seen to best effect in a smaller field, finishing one and a half lengths third to Havana Grey (Caspian Prince second). The bigger field and likely stronger place will suit her here, and she will likely be ridden to pick up the pieces once more.

Havana Grey showed his best form when impressively winning at the Curragh, skipping past Caspian Prince in good style, and the race may have come quick enough when disappointing behind Battaash in the King George 12 days later. At his best, he could definitely play a part here, but he has proved inconsistent so far this season which tempers enthusiasm.

Other three-year-olds Battle of Jericho and Sioux Nation, both of whom are trained by Aidan O’Brien, also need mentioning. The former finished three lengths behind Havana Grey at the Curragh last time, and his hold-up racing style may not be suited by how this race may develop, while Sioux Nation is held in some regard at home, but has disappointed on a couple of occasions this season. He sweated up beforehand when below form in the King George last time, and is capable of better, but the yard are yet to fully come out of the doldrums.

Judicial is building a really solid profile this season and arrives at the top of his game having won his last two starts, namely a minor event at Beverley and the Coral Charge at Sandown (by a neck from Muthmir). He was ridden just off the pace in both of those races, having EPFs of 3 and 2, respectively, and he should be well positioned to attack in the closing stages if good enough.

Conclusion

This is likely to be run at a strong pace, which will suit the odds-on favourite Battaash, who will take plenty of beating, but at such prohibitive odds, it is perhaps best to look for an each-way alternative. The ground is likely to be on the quick side, which means the pace setters could be hard to peg back, therefore Caspian Prince makes each-way appeal at around 20/1. He has proved at least as good as ever this year and seems sure to make a bold bid.

Recommendation:

Back Caspian Prince each way at 20/1 in the Nunthorpe Stakes at York on Friday