Novice hurdles and chases: Timefigures Preview

Can anything stop Getabird in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle?

The unbeaten Getabird looked one of the best around at two miles when sprinting clear from the last to easily dispose of Mengli Khan in the Moscow Flyer at Punchestown in January – recording a timefigure of 142 in the process – a fine achievement on just his second start. The image below compares the timefigures of the leading Supreme contenders recorded by the same stage of their careers.

Kalashnikov (149) and Summerville Boy (146) both have marginally superior timefigures, but the former had a punishing race when winning the Betfair Hurdle on heavy ground last time, while the latter had looked ordinary in steadily-run races before his Tolworth win.

What is the best bet in the 2018 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle?

After two bloodless wins, Getabird might well be as good as his odds suggest, and the race makes little betting appeal from a timefigure perspective.

What does it take to win a Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle?

The Irish have had the edge in this race, winning six of the last ten years, with Faugheen, Mikael d’Hagenuet and Yorkhill all successful for Willie Mullins in that time. None of their performances, however, compare with that of Simonsig who recorded a rating of 162 when victorious in 2012.

Is Samcro already up to the standard usually required to win the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle?

Samcro, unbeaten in a point-to-point, three bumpers and three hurdles, has recorded timefigures of 148 and 147 in his last two wins, both of which were achieved easily and compare favourably to the 138 achieved by Yorkhill in 2016 and the 124 of Willoughby Court – the worst winner in the last decade - 12 months ago.

Indeed, if Samcro’s hurdles wins are broken down sectionally - by comparing his between-hurdle times with the winners of the other races run on the hurdles course on the same cards – then the case for him fully deserving his lofty 151P rating becomes even stronger.

Are there other horses in the Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle that have gone unconsidered?

On The Blindside is rated only 1 lb inferior to Samcro on Timeform ratings and has already won two warm-up  ‘Ballymore Hurdles’ but - promising as he is - neither of the timefigures he has recorded (138 the best) nor the sectional performances underpinning them suggest he is up to beating Samcro. Similarly, Next Destination will need to improve on his Naas effort, however his earlier win at Navan (145 timefigure) entitles him to respect.

One horse that seems to have slipped under the radar is Black Op who recorded a race-leading 152 timefigure when just edged out by Albert Bartlett hopeful Santini in the Ballymore Classic at Cheltenham in January. The first two finished nearly a distance clear of some very useful novices and, had Black Op not fluffed the last after going clear of Santini, then he might well have won.

What is the best bet in the 2018 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle?

Samcro has never looked in any danger in his races, so it is hard to argue his current odds of 4-5 offer poor value, however the race in which Black Op finished second has been an excellent pointer to the Festival in recent years. He looks cracking value each way at 10/1 in the ‘market without Samcro’.

Recommendation:

Back Black Op at 10/1 in the ‘market without Samcro’ for the 2018 Ballymore Novices’ Hurdle

Thriller! Mr Adjudicator remains unbeaten for Willie Mullins and Paul Townend in the Grade 1 @tatts_ireland Spring Juvenile Hurdle at @LeopardstownRC: pic.twitter.com/d7lvMuFNb3

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) February 4, 2018

Which horses have the best timefigures in the Triumph Hurdle?

If Samcro is full value for his 151 Timeform rating then Mr Adjudicator is also full value for his 144 rating. Mr Adjudicator posted one of the most impressive final-hurdle-to-winning-line times all season in Ireland on his hurdle debut and then ran almost comparable inter-hurdle times to Samcro at the Dublin Festival before coming home slightly faster.

Mr Adjudicator’s 146 timefigure could feasibly have been higher and he, along with French import Farclas (144 timefigure), who was second behind him at Leopardstown, look the pair with the most solid credentials.

Apple’s Shakira (131) would appear to be the best of the home contingent, but clearly still has some improvement to find, while her stablemate We Have A Dream (137) has a defeat of Sussex Ranger (133) to his name but that slowly-run Chepstow affair - on a day several hurdles were omitted - worked against the strong-galloping, proficient hurdler Sussex Ranger.

What is the best bet in the 2018 Triumph Hurdle?

The likes of Sussex Ranger and We Have A Dream might yet have a major say, but Mr Adjudicator should be a fair bit shorter than the widely-available 8-1 and gets the vote accordingly.

Recommendation:

Back Mr Adjudicator at 8/1 in the 2018 Triumph Hurdle (NRNB)

Santini wears down Black Op in the Ballymore Classic Novices' Hurdle at Cheltenham

Results ▶️ https://t.co/7iJOPsvjqx pic.twitter.com/1o6UFYjOUo

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) January 27, 2018

Which horses have the best timefigures in the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle?

If Black Op makes lots of appeal for the Ballymore, then so must Santini - even more so perhaps - for the Albert Bartlett. He had too much speed for stable-companion Chef Des Obeaux at Newbury in December, a horse who has since won three on the bounce, recording a 135 timefigure at Haydock last time.

However, Santini’s subsequent defeat of Black Op when posting a timefigure of 153 – 13 lb ahead of leading Irish fancy Cracking Smart – marks him out as the one to beat.

What is the best bet in the 2018 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle?

Santini’s Cheltenham win was achieved in a manner that suggests three miles will be right up his street and he looks excellent value at around 8-1.

Recommendation:

Back Santini at 8/1 in the 2018 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (NRNB)

Saint Calvados takes Grade 2 honours @WarwickRaces in the Kingmaker Novices' Chase! Watch LIVE on @ITV4 pic.twitter.com/PsxQghYHsQ

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) February 10, 2018

What does it take to win an Arkle?

The Arkle has been a safe haven for favourites, with the likes of Altior, Douvan, Un de Sceaux, Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre all winning at odds on. Removing Sprint Sacre’s standout win (184 performance), it usually takes a low 160 performance to win the Arkle.

Is the even-money favourite Footpad up to scratch?

Footpad has already run to a level (162) good enough to win three of the last five Arkles. His five-length win over Arkle second favourite Petit Mouchoir at Leopardstown featured a winning timefigure of 167 – the joint third highest by a chaser this season - and matched the one recorded by Min 35 minutes earlier in the Dublin Chase, albeit in a less efficient manner.

Min was able to sit in midfield behind Special Tiara, who ensured a strong gallop throughout (97.2% race finishing speed), but Footpad made the running and would have found himself around four lengths behind Special Tiara five out had he been in that contest. However, by the third-last, roughly 2.4 furlongs later (around 36 seconds), Footpad would have been four lengths ahead of that rival.

Petit Mouchoir was returning from a four-month absence so may improve for the run, but from a time and sectional perspective there seems no reason to think that Footpad isn’t at least as good as Min.

Which other Arkle challengers have the best timefigures?

Winning small field novices from the front can be hard to assess, but Saint Calvados’ wide margin victories (by 9, 11 and 22 lengths) also have very impressive timefigures, including 165 in the Grade 2 Kingmaker at Warwick.

Behind the front three in the betting is Henry VIII winner Sceau Royal. Another who is unbeaten in his last three, he recorded a peak timefigure of 158 at Sandown, and his ability to travel strongly and jump tidily could bring him right into contention.

What is the best bet in the 2018 Arkle Chase?

Despite Footpad impressing this season, the selection at the prices is the 11/2 chance Saint Calvados whose timefigures can’t be ignored. He could be special and is still underestimated, hailing as he does from a smaller yard.

Recommendation:

Back Saint Calvados at 11/2 for the 2018 Arkle Chase (NRNB)

What a race - Our Duke holds off Presenting Percy to win the Red Mills Chase! @GowranPark1 pic.twitter.com/VvDb7gYBKL

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) February 17, 2018

What does it take to win an RSA or JLT?

JLT winners have run to a similar level as those who have won the RSA (mid-150s), though Vautour recorded a performance rating of 171 when successful in 2015. Might Bite is the best winner of the RSA, running to 160, and the demands on the race are pretty consistent, the ability to find plenty up the Cheltenham hill paramount.

Presenting Percy, current favourite for the RSA, is proven on that front and he looks rock solid, boasting the best performance (158) when second behind Our Duke in the Red Mills Chase at Gowran last time. He also holds the best timefigure, 153, from the Porterstown handicap at Fairyhouse back in December.

Which other novice chasers have the best timefigures?

Second favourite for the RSA is Monalee (134 timefigure), last seen winning the Flogas Novices’ Chase from Al Boum Photo (133) and Invitation Only (133) whose likely engagements are still up in the air.

Black Corton is the best of the likely British runners in the RSA, winning eight from ten this season including the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ at Kempton in a 142 timefigure. Of the mares, Shattered Love (145) has less improvement to find on timefigures than Mia’s Storm (140) in either race, while strong stayer Ballyoptic (146) - whose jumping could also be a concern – also needs to take another step forward.

What are the best bets in the 2018 JLT Novices’ Chase and the 2018 RSA Chase?

With doubts about most of his main rivals’ participation, general 5/2 chance Presenting Percy looks one of the most solid ante-post bets for the Festival. He has the best form, backed up by a strong previous timefigure, and should be very hard to beat.

Impressive Scilly Isles winner Terrefort (153) would be very interesting in the JLT, however that may depend on the ground coming up soft; should he run, he would make plenty of appeal at 10/1 (NRNB).

Recommendations:

Back Presenting Percy at 5/2 for the 2018 RSA Chase (NRNB)

Back Terrefort at 10/1 for the 2018 JLT Novices’ Chase (NRNB)

Click here to find out more about jumps timefigures.

Timeform jumps timefigures are available in Timeform Race Cards and Timeform Race Passes.