November Handicap Preview: Williams' grey can Saunter to success

The November Handicap at Doncaster traditionally brings the curtain down on the Flat season, representing the last time Flat fans can get stuck into a competitive, top-end turf handicap. Last year’s result was hardly a typical finale, though, only the second time this century that the race was run on good to firm ground, as the winner Prize Money became the first three-year-old to land the race since Malt Or Mash in 2007. The chances of this year’s renewal being run in similar conditions look slim – the ground is soft, good to soft at the time of writing – but with little rain forecast for the remainder of the week there is a chance it will be good ground come Saturday afternoon.

Vying for favouritism at the moment is Dance The Dream, who recorded her first win of the season at Leicester last month, beating Top Tug by one and a half lengths. She already had some solid handicap form to her name this season, but that victory represented a career-best performance, settling better than she had previously and seeing the race out thoroughly. However, Dance The Dream did get first run on Top Tug to some extent, and Alan King’s six-year-old wasn’t disgraced on his first start since disappointing in the Ebor 10 weeks prior. Top Tug has the ability to land a race of this nature from his current mark and he should be cherry ripe for this now.

John Gosden is the joint-leading trainer of the November Handicap with five wins, and he looks set to run the unexposed Royal Line, who only made his debut in September, but has quickly made up into a useful performer, winning two of his three starts. He lost his unbeaten record when finishing last of three (beaten three lengths) in a minor event at Newbury last time, never far away from the dictating winner but not able to get by despite having every chance. It’s best not to judge him too harshly on that – just his third career start after all – and the feeling is he remains at the right end of the handicap. The bigger field and likely stronger pace here should ensure a fairer race and he almost certainly has a bigger performance in him.

The Rod Millman-trained Duke of Bronte finished three quarters of a length in front of Royal Line at Newbury last time, though time may show he was a little flattered by his proximity to the winner, the tactical nature of the race meaning little separated them at the finish. Either way, Duke of Bronte has come a long way this season, winning three times, including three-year-old handicaps at Newbury and Ascot. He has been raised 4 lb for his latest effort, though, meaning he races off a career-high mark returned to a handicap, and that might be enough to scupper his chances of winning.

Towerlands Park has a similar profile to Litigant who won this race in 2015, seemingly not the easiest to train having only run twice in the last two years, but, as he showed at Newbury last month, he still retains plenty of ability. The lightly-raced gelding did enough to suggest that this mark is a workable one, beaten two lengths into third by one of the most progressive handicappers this season in Century Dream, and he ought to go well again provided he’s able to build on the promise of that belated reappearance.

The connections of Chelsea Lad were rather vocal about how well handicapped they believed the four-year-old to be at the start of the season and will perhaps be questioning how he hasn’t managed to win a race yet. He ran okay form-wise at York last time but, not for the first time this year, he couldn’t justify favouritism. The trip is an unknown here, having faded in the final furlong over a mile and a quarter at York last time, and he isn’t sure to be suited by further on pedigree, either.  Syphax finished runner-up in the same York race, bouncing back to the pick of his form in first-time cheekpieces. Unlike Chelsea Lad, Syphax was staying on in the final furlong that day, and he is worth a try at this longer trip, so needs respecting from the same mark.

Ian Williams has a couple of interesting entries at this stage in Reshoun and Saunter. The former won a C&D handicap impressively by three and three quarter lengths last time, but he will need a few to come out to get a run, so Saunter is perhaps the more interesting of the two as a result. Saunter looked a smart prospect when winning a couple of handicaps for David Menuisier last season, but had failed to figure over a variety of trips this term prior to shaping well on his first start for Ian Williams at Newmarket last time, coming from further back than ideal and losing out only to a progressive sort. He has gone up a 2 lb for that effort, but remains feasibly treated on the pick of his form and, given the make-up of this race should suit him down to the ground, a big run is expected.

Recommendation:

Back Saunter in the November Handicap at 14/1