Northumberland Plate: Mour to Sea at Newcastle

The Northumberland Plate has been the feature race of the Flat season at Newcastle Racecourse for many years now, but the 2016 renewal promises to be one of the most eagerly anticipated since its inception in 1833, with the ‘Pitmen’s Derby’ set be run on an artificial surface for the first time.

The decision to replace the turf course wasn’t met with universal approval initially, but the tapeta has garnered positive reviews from those present for the track’s early fixtures and, with £150,000 on offer and a field of 20 set to go to post, this year's renewal looks set to be as competitive as ever.

The current favourite for Saturday’s race is the Sir Michael Stoute-trained Dannyday. The four-year-old returned from eight months off the track with a commanding success at Chelmsford in April and, although that doesn’t look the strongest form in the context of this race, it was still a performance that marked him down as a useful prospect for the season ahead. He has often given the impression that the extra two furlongs that he should encounter here would be in his favour and looks a typical improver in a race that has to be considered a notable omission from his trainer’s decorated CV. He could easily go off shorter than the 8/1 currently on offer, but that eventuality is dependent on ten higher-rated rivals coming out and Dannyday simply can’t be advised with such doubts about his participation.

Steve Rogers was sent off the 7/2 favourite for last month’s Chester Cup and was placed perfectly to justify his lofty market position for the majority of that contest. Indeed, he was still travelling with some purpose just behind the leaders as the field entered the final three furlongs, but found less than looked likely when the pace increased and ultimately faded to finish down the field. That was his first disappointment in a series of otherwise consistent efforts, though, and he can boast an unbeaten record on the all-weather since his debut defeat over an insufficient trip at Kempton. He had produced a career-best when successful on his penultimate start at that venue and could yet confirm the promise of that outing with a big run in what would appear to be favourable conditions here.

Gang Warfare also features prominently in the betting despite a below par display at Chester and had previously completed a four-timer with a comfortable success on this surface at Wolverhampton in March. He showed a smart level of form to score on that occasion, always looking the likeliest winner and pulling clear with a similarly thriving rival. He shaped as if still in good heart last time and simply failed to get home on his first start over a trip in excess of 2m. There were plenty of positives to be taken from that effort, but it also highlighted the difficulty of trying to defy top-weight in these major handicaps and – with a performance bordering on very smart likely to be needed for him to win this – Gang Warfare looks opposable with several rivals open to more improvement in the field.

Nakeeta fared far better in the Chester Cup, running on well from a less than ideal position and just giving way to a more prominently ridden rival in the closing stages. That effort represented a career-best on his return from seven months off the track and, after a further 3 lb rise in the weights for that useful effort, he has now risen some 30 lb in the handicap since joining the Iain Jardine yard. A winner of the Old Borough Cup at Haydock on his final outing of the 2015 campaign, he remains unexposed at these staying trips and, although it remains to be seen how he will act on the new all-weather surface at Newcastle (21 previous starts have all come on turf), he has shown himself to be versatile as regards ground conditions and should give another good account of himself here.

The Chester form looks likely to be well-represented on Saturday, with the Richard Fahey-trained and commentator’s nightmare of Gabrial The Hero (fourth), Gabrial’s King (fifth) and Angel Gabrial (eighth) all engaged at the five-day stage. The latter won this race in 2014 and - fourth 12 months ago - will bid to emulate the feat of Tominator who regained his crown two years on from his 2011 success. He still looks high enough in the weights, though, and the proven all-weather form of Gabrial The Hero makes more appeal. He took some time to find his stride for the Fahey yard, but seems to have improved for the application of cheekpieces and, as a taking winner of his penultimate start at Lingfield, he should run a better race than the 20/1 currently on offer suggests.

However, with the participation of fancied pair Moscato and Cayirli in some doubt after hard races at last week’s Royal meeting, Seamour rates the best bet for Saturday’s £150,000 contest at this stage. He fared better than the bare result on his return from six months off the track at York last time, appearing most inconvenienced by the stop-start gallop of that listed heat and doing well to make his way into contention from a poor position as the field entered the final three furlongs. He got understandably tired in the closing stages, but is entitled to strip fitter with that outing under his belt and, although things have failed to go his way in three subsequent starts, he had looked one to keep onside when showing a good attitude to get the better of a next-time-out winner at Ascot in July.

That effort came on the back of a slightly disappointing sixth when sent off the 5/1 favourite for this race 12 months ago (never able to get on terms from his wide draw), but local trainer Brian Ellison has never hidden his affection for this race and his charge is likely to be trained to the minute here. Indeed, Seamour did enough on his reappearance to suggest he could be a force on Saturday and, as a winner on the all-weather already, Seamour is preferred to Steve Rogers and Gabrial The Hero.

Recommendation:

Back Seamour in the Northumberland Plate at 12/1