Nassau Stakes Preview: Side with sad at the prices

The feature race on day three of Glorious Goodwood, the Group 1 Nassau Stakes, is the latest of several opportunities for the three-year-old fillies to take on their elders this term, and the classic generation have a good recent record in the race – winning each of the last four renewals.

Aidan O’Brien was responsible for two of those, striking with Minding in 2016 and with Winter the following year, and he has leading claims once again with the dual Guineas winner, Hermosa. The latter of those wins in the Irish Guineas at the Curragh was a dominant one, storming clear to score by four lengths, and the form of that puts her 2 lb clear of the field on Timeform ratings.

Admittedly, Hermosa was below that form when only second behind Watch Me in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, looking a bit flat on the day, but she has been given plenty of time to recover from those exertions and deserves another chance to prove herself a very smart filly. Indeed, the longer trip could even bring about more improvement, with both her pedigree and the way that she shapes in her races offering every encouragement that she will stay.

Hermosa is one of five three-year-old fillies in the line-up, and she is joined by her stablemate Just Wonderful, as well as Maqsad, Mehdaayih and French raider Channel. The last-named is a stablemate of Watch Me, and arrives here on the back of a game success in the Prix de Diane at Chantilly last time out. The bunched finish on that occasion suggests that it was a sub-standard renewal, however, and the bare form of that effort leaves her with something to find to be competitive in this deeper contest – though she’s clearly progressing along the right lines.

Of more interest are Mehdaayih and Maqsad, who both shaped better than the bare result in the Epsom Oaks at the end of May. The former is one of a wealth of talented middle-distance fillies at the disposal of John Gosden, and she bounced back from a luckless run at Epsom (finishing seventh after meeting plenty of trouble) with an authoritative success in the Prix de Malleret at Saint-Cloud last time, and it would be no surprise if she had more to offer now back at the highest level. However, with Mehdaayih a general 7/2 shot at the time of writing, it looks worth siding with Maqsad at the prices.

Maqsad failed to get home after travelling best of all in the straight at Epsom, finishing eighth, and will be suited by the return to ten furlongs here. She had been progressive in two starts this term prior to that, looking a class apart when storming clear to win a listed contest at Newmarket in May, and with the prospect of even more to come, and she looks worth siding with at her current price of 6/1 for her powerful connections. Meanwhile, Just Wonderful got back to form with a solid second in the Grade 1 Belmont Oaks last time, though she finished behind her stablemate Hermosa on each of her first three runs this term, and will likely come up short once again here.

Maqsad could be called the winner of the Listed Pretty Polly Stakes from a long way out - a really exciting filly for William Haggas to take to big meetings this summer (new joint favourite for the Oaks)

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With last year’s winner of this race, Wild Illusion, an absentee, the pick of the older horses looks to be Rawdaa. She’s proven to be a typical improver for the Sir Michael Stoute team so far this term, and produced an excellent effort to finish second in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot on her most recent outing, when only beaten by a similarly lightly-raced one back down in trip. She’s been knocking hard on the door at Group 2 level, and although she’s likely to give another good account, she may find it tough to hold off the challenge of the classic generation.

Japanese challenger Deirdre is another who has been below her best of late, with her first start on British soil coming when down the field in the Prince of Wales’s Stakes, but she has the form to figure when on-song and cannot be discounted at a double figure price having had more time to acclimatise since her disappointing effort at Royal Ascot.

The field is completed by Sun Maiden and Nyaleti. The first-named has taken her form to another level this term, picking up a first group success at Newcastle at the end of June. This requires more, but she’s a likeable filly who still has low mileage for her age, and it would be no surprise should she take another step forward in a race her half-sister Midday won three times. Finally, Nyaleti is a smart filly at her peak, but she has come up short on several occasions in group contests this term and will likely be playing for place honours at best.

In summary, this looks to be another race in which the classic generation is fancied to hold sway, with Maqsad appealing as a value alternative to Hermosa. A blatant non-stayer in the Oaks, the way she travelled for much of the contest suggested that she is well up to this level, and the drop back in trip here could be the catalyst for a much-improved display. Mehdaayih and French raider Channel can battle it out for minor honours.

Recommendation

Back Maqsad at 6/1 in Thursday’s Nassau Stakes at Goodwood