Nassau Stakes Position Map Preview: Turn of foot to seal it for Brook

Only six runners are set to go to post for this year’s renewal of the Nassau Stakes and, as you can see from the Early Position Map below, it could turn tactical with not much pace in the race on paper.

It was surprising to see Veracious ridden so prominently on her return from eight months off in the Coronation Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, having been given more patient rides on both of her starts last season. It does say plenty about the regard in which she is held, though, pitched into Group 1 company on just her third start, and she was far from disgraced. That was her first start since suffering a setback earlier in the year, so she can be expected to come on plenty for that and, if left to her own devices on the front end, she could prove hard to peg back; her pedigree suggests she will improve further for this step up in trip and she looks most interesting.

Urban Fox is currently trading at a similar price, but has tended to be ridden with more restraint since joining the William Haggas yard this season. She has also proved better than ever, too, her win in the Pretty Polly stakes at the Curragh last time a clear career best. That was also her first start beyond a mile and, for all she was suited by the emphasis on speed that day, she clearly improved for the step up to this trip and is unexposed as a result. A slowly-run race could play to her strengths given the turn of foot she possesses and she shouldn’t be underestimated.

Urban Fox wins the Group 1 @JuddmonteFarms Pretty Polly Stakes! @curraghrace pic.twitter.com/Ch2cNWZ1pa

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) 1 July 2018

The Aidan O’Brien-trained Rhododendron tops Timeform weight-adjusted ratings and is particularly interesting back at a mile and a quarter. Her best effort came when winning the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury in May, but her win in the Prix de l'Opera at Chantilly over this trip last season was also smart, and she can be forgiven her below-par effort in the Queen Anne last time, having not taken the eye in the paddock beforehand. However, not all of O’Brien’s horses are firing at present – the trainer reported that some of his horses haven’t scoped 100% clean – and the percentage call is to oppose her.

One who is perhaps a bigger price than anticipated is 1000 Guineas winner Billesdon Brook. People were quick to crab her winning effort that day because of her SP (66/1), but there was no fluke about her performance and, though she failed to back that up in the Coronation last time, she was asked to come from way off the pace. She showed her liking for this track when winning twice over seven furlongs last season, including the Prestige Stakes, both times showing a potent turn of foot. On pedigree she should be suited by this extra two furlongs (her dam stayed a mile and a quarter) and she has more going for her than her odds suggest; her turn of foot will stand her in good stead over this trip if it gets tactical.

Wild Illusion and Wilamina complete the line-up, the former having done little wrong so far this season, finishing second in the Oaks and Coronation, respectively. However, she doesn’t seem to be progressing, yet to better the form of her win in the Prix Marcel Boussac at Chantilly last year, while this represents a step up in class for Wilamina. She finished third in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot last time, form which leaves her with plenty to find here.

Conclusion

Veracious is the least exposed in the field, and you can see why she is to the forefront of the market, with this step up in trip likely to suit on pedigree. However, the one who looks overpriced is Billesdon Brook, who has a great record at this course, should stay this longer trip on pedigree, and has an impressive turn of foot that could make the difference if the race is run at a muddling gallop.

Recommended bet:

Back Billesdon Brook at 9/1 in the Nassau Stakes at Goodwood on Thursday