Middle Park Stakes Position Map Preview: Ana the each-way play

Saturday’s Group 1 Middle Park Stakes has been won by some smart performers in recent years, including U S Navy Flag, who of course went on to win the July Cup back at Newmarket - albeit on the July Course - earlier this season.

The race is interesting from a tactical perspective, too, in that it has been won by runners who made all/raced very prominently from an early stage in each of the last three years - indeed, five of the last seven renewals have unfolded this way. 

Ballydoyle starlet the one to beat

This year’s standard-setter in terms of form is the hugely exciting Ten Sovereigns, who has made a flawless start to his career so far, making a winning debut in a 25-runner maiden at the Curragh in August, quickening clear under a hands-and-heels ride, before oozing class when following up in the Group 3 Round Tower Stakes at the same course seven days later. 

There’s likely plenty more to come from him yet - he has a large P on his Timeform rating, meaning he is open to considerable improvement. Though it's too early to be dogmatic, after just two starts, Ten Sovereigns has had an Early Position Figure of 2 in both outings, meaning that he has been prominent, but taken a lead off a rival. As such, if there is any chink in his armour, it could be found by one who makes the running.

Tactics crucial 

The one most likely to do so is Emaraaty Ana, who has won two of his three starts to date, most recently the Group 2 Gimcrack Stakes last month under a forceful ride by Frankie Dettori. His recent acquisition by Sheikh Mohammed Obaid Al Maktoum means he will race in the Postponed colours, with Andrea Atzeni on board this time around, but it is likely that he will once again receive a positive ride. This should give him the best chance possible against Ten Sovereigns.

Potential improvers

One who adds an intriguing angle to the race, though, is Ten Sovereigns’ stablemate Sergei Prokofiev, one of just two runners in the field with previous Group 1 experience. That run wasn’t a happy one, however, when far too free to do himself justice in the Phoenix Stakes at the Curragh last month, hanging right inside the final furlong and finishing last of five. He had shown useful form prior to that, finishing third in the Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot, and it will be interesting to see what tactics are deployed (came with a late bid in the Coventry). However, several at the yard have overtaken him now, and he has something to prove in this lofty company.

It doesn’t take too much detective work to work out the bloodline of Rumble Inthejungle, the son of Bungle Inthejungle, who like Sergei Prokofiev is likely to make his move in the closing stages. A winner of the Group 3 Molecomb Stakes at Glorious Goodwood in August, he disappointed when last of nine in the Group 2 Flying Childers Stakes at Doncaster a fortnight ago, with his wide position a secondary issue. His connections were quick to blame the softening ground on the day (going officially changed to good to soft post race), but he needs to bounce back.

Marie’s Diamond is the other runner in the field with top level experience, but like Sergei Prokofiev, he found life tough, finishing last of nine in the Group 1 Prix Morny at Deauville last time. Considering that he hails from the Mark Johnston yard, and has Silvestre De Sousa booked, it would be no surprise if he was ridden more prominently here, but he has only shown useful form so far, and would need considerably more if he is to trouble the principals. The same can be said for the Richard Fahey-trained Space Traveller, another who has generally been played late in his short career so far. He struggled in the Grimcrack Stakes at York in August, and whilst he made amends when second in a Group 3 contest at Maisons-Laiffette last time, he has 15 lb to find with Ten Sovereigns. 

Legends of War was the top lot at the Craven breeze-ups in April, purchased by Qatar Racing for £900,000, but he has been in mixed form since making a winning debut at Yarmouth in May, finishing a fine second in the Gimcrack at York butrunning below that level in the Flying Childers last time. With the in-form Oisin Murphy booked to ride he looks an interesting outsider, as is the unexposed Jash, who arrives here after wins in minor races on the July Course and at Salisbury. He looked a pattern performer in the making when winning at the latter course, and is an fascinating contender now thrown into the deep end here.

Conclusion 

It’s difficult to look beyond Ten Sovereigns, who arrives here with a flawless record, and sits 4 lb clear on Timeform ratings, with a large P attached. It could be that he has too much class for this field however it pans out, but he is odds-on at the time of writing to notch up a third career win. Bearing in mind that each of the last three winners of this have made the running, it could be worth taking him on with Emaraaty Ana, whose performance in the Gimcrack was a smart one, and he offers some each-way value at the current prices. 

Recommendation 

Back Emaraaty Ana each-way at 10/1 in Saturday’s Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket