Middle Park Stakes 2016: Boys in Blue with Point to prove

The most significant runner for many at Timeform House this weekend could be One Too Many given it’s our annual race day at Haydock at Saturday, closely followed by All Talk N No Do and For Goodness Sake—it’s an obvious treble if they all run. The racing at Haydock looks good, but it’s even better at Newmarket where the historic Cambridgeshire is supported by the Middle Park and Cheveley Park Stakes, both Group 1s, and the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes. With Simon Rowlands set to preview the big handicap after the declarations, I felt it best I turn my attentions to the two-year-old races in the hope that readers can double up.

With Capri’s participation not yet confirmed, the best bet for me at this stage is Hugo Palmer’s Best of Days in the Royal Lodge, or at least it would be if there was actually a market open for it. Unfortunately, the two Group 1s—which bookmakers are currently betting on—both have short-priced favourites, namely Blue Point and Lady Aurelia who hold rock-solid claims on Timeform ratings. The most vulnerable is perhaps just Blue Point—and, admittedly, he’s narrowly odds-against whereas Lady Aurelia is odds-on—who does have one semi-blip on his record when worried out of it by Mehmas (giving Blue Point 3 lb) in the Richmond Stakes at Goodwood. Blue Point might well have still been green on his third start there, and he made up for it in the Gimcrack Stakes at York last time, but it’s still a slight blemish on an otherwise perfect record.

Mehmas has claims of upholding the form with Blue Point (though it’s worth pointing out he’s improved since) off level weights, and he’s bound to be on the premises back over six furlongs, though it’s fair to say he’s not open to as much improvement as some. He’s a compact colt and due to be the latest leading sprinter to be retired to stud at the end of his two-year-old season. Intelligence Cross is the most interesting of the five Ballydoyle entries, his form a few lb shy of Peace Envoy’s but open to more improvement, though he was three lengths behind Mehmas and Blue Point in the Richmond.

Another horse who has finished three lengths behind Blue Point is Mokarris, doing so when runner-up in the Gimcrack. That form looks strong, with the third The Last Lion, seventh Ardad and eighth Mubtasim also next-time-out winners in the Sirenia Stakes, Flying Childers Stakes and a valuable sales race respectively, and Mokarris was not seen to best effect either having been forced to race on the flank without any cover (drawn wide). Mokarris’ only dot-ball came on rain-softened ground in the Coventry Stakes, and he quickly got back on track returned to a firmer surface when readily winning a listed race at Newbury in which next-start winners finished fourth, fifth and sixth. With the weather in Newmarket set fair for the rest of the week, it’s easy to see why the double-figure prices about Mokarris have all but disappeared in recent days.

All those not previously mentioned are up against it, though Medicine Jack could outrun his odds (currently 33/1 in places) given he beat Peace Envoy fair and square in the Railway Stakes at the Curragh in June. He’s been below form when third at the same track on both his outings since, on faster ground in both the Phoenix Stakes (won easily by the absent Caravaggio) and on softer going in a big-field sales race, but he probably would have gone close to winning the latter race but for meeting trouble two furlongs out (was also poorly drawn).

To wrap up, Blue Point isn’t one to take on lightly, while the consistent Mehmas and Intellgence Cross make each-way betting on the race tricky, but there’s still some value in the current price of Mokarris who had a genuine excuse for his flop at Ascot and has done nothing wrong otherwise, probably unlucky not to get closer to Blue Point when best of the rest in the Gimcrack last time.

Recommendation:

Back Mokarris at 9/1 for the Middle Park Stakes at Newmarket on Saturday