Melbourne Cup: Big contenders from four countries

This year’s Melbourne Cup, set to take place on Tuesday the 1st of November 2016, is set to be an international affair once again, and though neither Germany nor France – both nations that have tasted success in the race before – are set to be represented this time around, Britain, Ireland and Japan may all have runners in the Southern Hemisphere’s richest race.

Australia—Hartnell

Prince of Penzance – who faces retirement after picking up an injury in the Herbert Power Stakes earlier this month – rather bucked a recent trend when winning last year’s Melbourne Cup, as he did not start life trained in Europe. The previous five winners Protectionist, Fiorente, Green Moon, Dunaden and Americain had all done so.

Of the 29 Australasian-trained entries still in this year’s Melbourne Cup, 13 of them began their racing careers in Europe. That’s not as big a percentage as in many of the renewals in recent years (for example, 7 of the 13 Australasian-trained horses in last year’s race began their careers in Europe), but the best chance of a home-trained winner still seems to rest with a horse who raced in Britain at two and three.

Hartnell was trained by Mark Johnston when he won the Queen’s Vase at Royal Ascot and Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket in 2014, and when he finished seventh in the St Leger at Doncaster on his final British start. Though he fell short of the top level in Britain as a three-year-old, it didn’t take long for Hartnell to make his Group 1 breakthrough in Australia, taking the BMW Classic at Rosehill in early-2015 for his new trainer John O’Shea. Hartnell was only fifteenth in last year’s Melbourne Cup, but he is seemingly better than ever this season, having recorded impressive wins in the Group 2 Hill Stakes at Randwick and the Group 1 Turnbull Stakes at Flemington.

Britain—Big Orange

There are four British-trained horses among the current entries, with Godolphin’s trio of Scottish, Beautiful Romance and Secret Number also joined by the Michael Bell-trained Big Orange, who heads the quartet on Timeform ratings (and unsurprisingly is set to carry the most weight of the four runners).

All of them will be bidding to do what no other British-trained horse has done to date – win the Melbourne Cup. The total number of beaten British raiders now stands at 77 (between 1993 and 2015), though the admirable Red Cadeaux – who was sadly unable to recover from the injuries he sustained in last year’s renewal – did fill the runner-up spot on three occasions.

Big Orange finished a good fifth in the 2015 running of the Melbourne Cup, just half a length behind Britain’s best-placed runner that year, Trip To Paris, and he has shown improved form on Timeform ratings this season in defending his titles in the Princess of Wales’s Stakes and the Goodwood Cup. Perhaps crucially, Big Orange has had a lighter campaign this season, too, with just three domestic starts in 2016 compared to five in 2015. He is deservedly the shortest-priced British-trained runner in the ante-post betting and should give a good account.

Ireland—Bondi Beach

Ireland supplied the first overseas winner of the Melbourne Cup in 1993 in the form of the Dermot Weld-trained Vintage Crop. Weld was successful again in 2002 with Media Puzzle, but to date no other Irish trainer has saddled the winner of the race, including Willie Mullins and – perhaps surprisingly given the amount of international success he has had elsewhere – Aidan O’Brien.

Mullins went very close in 2015 with Max Dynamite, who was arguably unlucky not to win under Frankie Dettori after being short of room and having to switch twice before making a strong late bid, but after an underwhelming run in the Ascot Gold Cup when last seen, Max Dynamite is missing from this year’s renewal. Mullins does have surprise Irish St Leger winner Wicklow Brave still entered, however.

O’Brien enjoyed Group 1 success in Australia in 2014 when Adelaide won the Cox Plate, but that remains his sole success at the highest level in the country. After a brilliant season with 21 wins at Group 1 level so far, O’Brien looks set to saddle just one runner in this year’s race: last year’s St Leger second Bondi Beach. Following a sixteenth-placed finish in last year’s renewal, where he was the sole three-year-old from the Northern Hemisphere and wasn’t beaten all that far, Bondi Beach has been lightly campaigned as a four-year-old and was having just his fourth start of 2016 when a good third in the Enterprise Stakes at Leopardstown last month. The return to two miles at Flemington looks set to suit Bondi Beach and, as O’Brien’s sole runner, he should end up with Ryan Moore – successful in the race in 2014 with Protectionist – on board.

Japan—Curren Mirotic

Japanese trainer Katsuhiko Sumii – who sent out Last Impact to finish third behind Postponed in the Sheema Classic at Meydan earlier this season – saddled Japan’s only winner of the Melbourne Cup in 2006 courtesy of Delta Blues, who beat his stablemate Pop Rock by a short head, with the pair four and a half lengths clear of the third.

Japan have just one horse entered in this year’s Melbourne Cup in the form of Osamu Hirata’s Curren Mirotic, who is currently available at around 25/1 in the ante-post betting. Curren Mirotic’s best form has come over two miles, in the last two runnings of the Group 1 Tenno Sho Spring at Kyoto. He was third in the 2015 renewal behind one-time Arc fancy Gold Ship, and finished second in this year’s running. Clearly at his best over two miles based on the balance of his form, Curren Mirotic is a fascinating Melbourne Cup contender.