Melbourne Cup 2019: Eyeing up the European raiders

Cross Counter (Timeform rating 124) - Charlie Appleby/William Buick

There is no better place to start than Cross Counter, who became the first British-trained winner of the Melbourne Cup when staying on strongly from the rear to beat Marmelo (who has been controversially ruled out of this year’s renewal) by a length 12 months ago.

Cross Counter - the first British-trained winner of the Lexus Melbourne Cup! @godolphin @FlemingtonVRC pic.twitter.com/gkBJeho7NT

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) November 6, 2018

Successful on his reappearance in the Dubai Gold Cup at Meydan in March, Charlie Appleby’s charge has failed to get his head in front in three subsequent starts in Britain, but he has demonstrated that he retains all his ability, including when beaten less than two lengths behind Stradivarius in the Gold Cup at Royal Ascot in June.

This is likely to have been his target ever since last year’s historic success, and though much higher in the weights this time round, he shouldn’t be underestimated in his bid to become the first multiple winner since the great Makybe Diva earlier this century.

Il Paradiso (119) - Aidan O'Brien/Wayne Lordan

Aidan O’Brien saddles three runners as he attempts to win his first Melbourne Cup, with Hunting Horn and Magic Wand both arriving here on the back of good runs at Moonee Vallley. The latter was fourth behind Lys Gracieux in the Cox Plate, while Hunting Horn gained a deserved Grade 2 success earlier on the same card.

However, the pick of the Ballydoyle challenge according to the betting is the three-year-old Il Paradiso, who will be making his first start in Australia after finishing fifth in the St Leger at Doncaster, when beaten a little over five lengths after possibly delivering his effort sooner than ideal.

Il Paradiso had previously produced an even better effort at this trip when third (beaten a length and a quarter) behind Stradivarius in the Lonsdale Cup at York, and he has an interesting profile for this race in the first-time blinkers, with the last two renewals both having gone the way of Northern Hemisphere three-year-olds.

A second million-pound bonus for the money machine Stradivarius in the Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes at @yorkracecourse

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📱 https://t.co/Gic4fP8tJm#ITVRacing pic.twitter.com/zZi2wGMG9r

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) August 23, 2019

Master of Reality (123) - Joseph O'Brien/Frankie Dettori

Joseph O’Brien will arrive Down Under still on a high after his maiden Breeders’ Cup win courtesy of Iridessa on Saturday, and he has the edge over his father in terms of runners here, with Master of Reality leading a four-pronged attack for the trainer seeking his second Melbourne Cup success after Rekindling in 2017.

Master of Reality sprung a surprise when winning the Vintage Crop Stakes on his return at Navan in April, but he has proved that effort to be no fluke in four subsequent starts, notably finishing one place ahead of Cross Counter when beaten just a length by Stradivarius in the Gold Cup.

Incredible. Simply the best.

Stradivarius and @FrankieDettori win the 2019 Gold Cup at @Ascot 🏆#RoyalAscot pic.twitter.com/oZAUaLQjbJ

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) June 20, 2019

The bare form of that performance is comparable with what the majority of these have achieved, and, still relatively lightly raced as a stayer, his big weight is unlikely to prevent a big run under Frankie Dettori, who is yet to win this race. The O’Brien team is completed by Latrobe, Twilight Payment and Saturday’s Hotham Stakes winner Downdraft.

Prince of Arran (118) - Charlie Fellowes/Michael Walker

Charlie Fellowes has been training only slightly longer than Joseph O’Brien, and it looked like he too would be adding the Melbourne Cup to his CV for a brief moment last year, with Prince of Arran coming through to lead over a furlong out.

Ultimately, Prince of Arran was unable to hold off the late challenges of Cross Counter and Marmelo (beaten three lengths), but he still ran a huge race for a horse who had guaranteed his spot in the line-up by winning the Lexus Stakes only three days earlier. Clearly, the six-year-old is well suited by the demands of Australian racing, with further evidence of that coming on his last two starts, when second in the Herbert Power Stakes at Caulfield and successful in the Geelong Cup.

Widest draw, no problem - what a performance! Prince Of Arran wins the bet365 Geelong Cup for @FellowesRacing and lays down his claims for next month's Lexus Melbourne Cup! A superb run also from Willie Mullins's True Self in second... pic.twitter.com/OGNd4FnGhb

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) October 23, 2019

The six-year-old just held on to get the verdict by a head on the latter occasion, and the penalty he picked up for that win once again proved crucial in earning him a place in this field. The Geelong Cup/Melbourne Cup double has been done before, most recently by Dunaden in 2011, and his excellent record Down Under entitles Prince of Arran to the utmost respect.

Raymond Tusk (120) - Richard Hannon/Jamie Spencer

The Ebor has proved another popular springboard to the Melbourne Cup in recent years, with Heartbreak City coming closest to completing the double in 2016; he won by four lengths on the Knavesmire before going down by just a head at the hands of Almandin in this race.

An Irish winner of the £1 million @SkyBet Ebor, as MUSTAJEER claims victory for Ger Lyons and Colin Keane 🍀💰 pic.twitter.com/vJaAwzcezL

— York Racecourse (@yorkracecourse) August 24, 2019

Mustajeer (who is now trained in Australia) is the latest horse to attempt the double, having won the Ebor in decisive fashion back in August, but arguably just as the interesting here is the fourth from that York heat, Raymond Tusk. He shaped better than the bare result when making his handicap debut that day, enduring trouble in-running and doing well under the circumstances to finish as close as he did, never nearer than the two lengths he was beaten at the line.

On that evidence, Richard Hannon’s charge is likely to be suited by the step back up in trip here, another who is very much unexposed as a stayer, and he appeals as one who may have been let in lightly by the handicapper (very little to find with the principals on weight-adjusted ratings).