Lockinge Stakes Preview: Laurens can be leading lady again

The term ‘much of a muchness’ was frequently used by Timeform to describe the miling division in 2018, especially after the two Group 1s for older horses in the first half of the season. Indeed, the lack of an outstanding performer resulted in big fields going to post for both the Lockinge Stakes (14 – the second biggest since 2004) and the Queen Anne (15 – also the second biggest since 2004), while the bunched finishes on each occasion only reinforced the view that any of them could win on their given day.

It was a similar story amongst the three-year-old colts – no member of that group managed to win more than one Group 1 over a mile – and instead it was a three-year-old filly who was the one to put her head above the parapet, with Alpha Centauri recording four consecutive Group 1 wins over a mile at the height of summer, including an impressive defeat of the boys in the Prix Jacques le Marois. With a Timeform rating of 128, the thought of her clashing with the 2019 crop of three-year-olds was one to savour, but sadly it was not to be – she suffered an injury when bidding for the five-timer in the Matron Stakes and was subsequently retired.

Her absence has undoubtedly left a void amongst this year’s older milers, and the open look to this division may explain why no less than 17 stood their ground at Monday’s five-day entry stage for the Lockinge. It looks likely to prove as competitive as the numbers suggest, too, with only 4 lb covering 12 of the 17 entries on our weight-adjusted ratings and bookmakers currently going as big as 7/2-the field.

The one who heads the betting at the time of writing is the Aidan O’Brien-trained Le Brivido. He was a very smart three-year-old when trained by Andre Fabre in 2017, with his two wins (from three starts) including the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot, but his 2018 campaign was limited to only one start, when finishing three lengths sixth to Brando in the Abernant Stakes at Newmarket. With that in mind, it was hardly surprising that he looked rusty on his first start for O’Brien in the Gladness Stakes at Naas last month (started slowly), but there was plenty of encouragement to be taken from the way he finished his race, never nearer than the length and a quarter he was beaten at the line. That run should have put him spot on for this, and he commands respect for last year’s winning yard.

Alpha Centauri’s form is still set to be represented by the horse who ended her winning sequence in the Matron, namely Laurens. Trained by Karl Burke, she won the Prix Saint Alary and Prix de Diane (both over a mile and a quarter) in the first half of 2018, and proved better than ever when dropping back to a mile in the autumn, matching Alpha Centauri’s four Group 1 wins with a typically brave success in the Sun Chariot Stakes at Newmarket in October. She can be forgiven a below-par showing in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot on her final start that season (possibly one race too many), and it would be no surprise if she proved more of a match for the boys this time round, with her game attitude always likely to stand her in good stead.

Laurens claims her 5th Group 1 victory as she holds off Happily to take the Sun Chariot at @NewmarketRace 🙌 pic.twitter.com/t18mEY9MLV

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) October 6, 2018

Several of these lined up in that QEII, with I Can Fly faring the best of them in going down by just a neck to Roaring Lion. A stablemate of Le Brivido, that represented comfortably the best effort of her three-year-old campaign, but her overall profile is a patchy one, notably running well below form on her most recent outing in Dubai. She could easily bounce back, and would appear to hold sound form claims if doing so, but it is hard to recommend her with any confidence. Stormy Antarctic also made the frame in the QEII, when beaten just a length and a half in fourth, but he is thoroughly exposed at the age of six and even the pick of his form – including a Group 3 success in Germany on his recent reappearance – leaves him with plenty to find in this company.

Lord Glitters was only sixth in the QEII, but he had proven most consistent prior to that, with good placed efforts in the Queen Anne Stakes (half a length second to Accidental Agent) and Sussex Stakes (two lengths third to Lightning Spear) to his name before he gained the victory his consistency deserved in the Strensall Stakes at York (by half a length from Mustashry). He also produced a career best on his reappearance at Meydan in March, when beaten just a length and three quarters by Almond Eye in the Dubai Turf, and there is no reason why he shouldn’t give another good account, for all that he is yet to win above Group 3 level. Without Parole was only fifth (beaten six lengths) when wearing first-time cheekpieces for his return in the Dubai Turf, and he has generally found life tough in this sort of company since winning last year’s St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.

Japanese superstar Almond Eye maintains her unbeaten record in the Dubai Turf @MeydanRacing! 😍#DubaiWorldCup #DWC19 pic.twitter.com/Ah9oLGPZ0P

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) March 30, 2019

Similar comments apply to Accidental Agent, another winner at last year’s Royal meeting in the Queen Anne Stakes. Indeed, that success is comfortably the standout performance on his record (goes particularly well at Ascot), and the suspicion is that he may to struggle to better his sixth in this race 12 months ago, when he had the benefit of a previous run. Billesdon Brook (1000 Guineas), Romanised (Irish 2000 Guineas) and One Master (Prix de la Foret) are the others in here who have previously won at the highest level, with the last-named making easily the most appeal of that trio. She progressed rapidly in the second half of last season, and it is not beyond the realms of possibility that she could have even more to offer this term, still relatively unexposed at this trip after all (done most of her racing over seven furlongs).

Beat The Bank gained his fourth Group 2 success in the bet365 Mile at Sandown last time, hitting the front over a furlong out and keeping on well thereafter to get the verdict by half a length from Sharja Bridge. Andrew Balding’s charge has compiled a terrific record over the last three seasons (beaten only once in races below Group 1 level), but he is yet to make the frame in this grade and will probably need to improve again if he is to make the breakthrough this time round. Others to note include the four-year-olds Mythical Magic and Ostilio. The latter won four of his seven starts in 2018 and deserves another chance to get back on an upward curve (well below form on reappearance), while Mythical Magic proved better than ever when winning a Group 2 at Meydan last-time-out, and cannot be discounted if carrying that improvement through on his return to these shores.

Conclusion

Much like last year, Saturday’s Lockinge looks richer in quantity rather than quality, with the majority of them falling shy of the level required to win a ‘typical’ renewal. Le Brivido is one in the field who could bridge that gap on just his second start for Aidan O’Brien, but the one who makes most appeal at the current prices is the proven class act in the field, Laurens. Already a five-time Group 1 winner, she has all the attributes you could want in a top thoroughbred (tough and genuine with an excellent strike rate), and the vibes from her connections in recent days suggest that she may yet prove capable of better as she embarks on her four-year-old campaign.

Recommendation:

Back Laurens at 5/1 in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury on Saturday