Lockinge Stakes: Limato win would be sweet for Candy

It started in 1998 and is seemingly as strong as ever thanks to two good results in the last three years. It’s Godolphin’s love affair with the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes. Godolphin are so keen to win the race for a seventh time that having two key form contenders in Toormore and Belardo wasn’t enough—they’ve recently bought Dutch Connection and Home of The Brave too.

Three of Godolphin’s Lockinge winners began their careers owned by someone other than Godolphin or Sheikh Mohammed, including Night of Thunder who carried the famous royal blue silks for the first time when successful in 2015. Toormore and Belardo also fall into this category, the former bought by Godolphin two starts after finishing a neck second to Night of Thunder in this race, which means of Godolphin’s five entries for this year’s Lockinge, the only one that has represented them since its debut is the pacemaker Barchan.

Toormore and Belardo are certainly very smart, and pretty reliable, performers, with the former getting first run on the latter when they finished first and fourth in the Group 2 Mile at Sandown last month (Barchan last of seven after making the running). But do the purchases of Dutch Connection, who went around 4/1-on in-running when just a neck behind Toormore in the Mile, and Home of The Brave, who made a successful return in a listed race at Leicester the following afternoon, suggest a lack of confidence in the other pair, at least at the highest level?

Also representing the Maktoum family—Sheikh Hamdan, specifically—among the 18 entries are Estidhkaar and Mahsoob. Mahsoob got firmly back on track when making a winning return in the Group 3 Earl of Sefton Stakes at Newmarket last month, but he may not be best served by a drop back to a mile and the more intriguing contender is Estidhkaar. Estidhkaar was clearly not himself when down the field in both the 2000 Guineas and Prix Jacques le Marois last season as he’d previously finished a neck second (clear of the third) to the future champion sprinter Muhaarar in the Greenham at Newbury. That this race is seemingly being considered for his return is potentially significant, though there is some concern about him proving fully effective over a mile.

The one they all have to beat on form is Limato who would surely have been on Godolphin’s shopping list if it wasn’t for a couple of things missing—while Belardo, Toormore, Dutch Connection and Home of The Brave are all entire horses and thus potential stallion prospects, Limato was gelded before his two-year-old debut. This fact meant Limato could not run in the Guineas last year and so was taken down a different route by Henry Candy, one which saw him produce some smart efforts over six furlongs and some very smart ones over seven furlongs. Limato certainly shaped like a horse worth a try over a mile when winning the Group 2 Park Stakes at Doncaster and finishing second to Make Believe in the Group 1 Prix de La Foret on his final two starts last term, while he shares his sire with Canford Cliffs and is out of a 10-furlong winner from the family of Eclipse winner Compton Admiral and QEII winner Summoner.

Arod was third in this race last year before winning at Group 3 and Group 2 (Summer Mile) level, and he wasn’t disgraced when third in an Ascot listed race won by GM Hopkins on his first start back 17 days ago. His problem there—doing too much too soon—could be his problem here, however, especially with Barchan in the race. A similar comment applies to Kodi Bear who was undoubtedly progressive last year, winning three races, including the Group 2 Celebration Stakes, after making a later than planned return, but he refused to settle close up and then hung left when down the field in the QEII on his final outing.

Amazing Maria has sound form claims as a dual Group 1-winning mare in receipt of 3 lb from the males, though she’ll need to prove much sharper for her return in the Dahlia Stakes, admittedly over a trip slightly beyond her ideal.

The absence of Time Test—who could now go for the Tattersalls Gold Cup on May 22^nd—combined with the fact Godolphin could be mob-handed in its attempt to win the race again makes the latest Lockinge pretty tricky. With Home of The Brave perhaps more a candidate to go back down in trip from seven furlongs rather than up, Dutch Connection could be just about the pick from Godolphin, but rather than get tangled up in blue it could pay to just straight-bat this with Limato who has the best form on offer and looks likely to stay a mile.

Recommendation:

Back Limato in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury