Lingfield Winter Derby Trial Preview: El of a bet

The pace – or lack of it – predicted for Saturday’s Winter Derby Trial at Lingfield could prove crucial in determining the result.

Timeform ratings suggest that horse in focus Victory Bond, winner of two of his last three starts, is the clear one to beat. He has shown a good turn of foot, quickening nicely from just a modest gallop on each occasion, and looks to be fulfilling his long-vaunted potential (ran in the Dante on just his third start).

Victory Bond’s ability to quicken may be needed once more, though, as there looks to be a dearth of front runners in the race, with the majority preferring to sit in midfield. In races like this, the Timeform Early Position Map can try to identify which of these nine runners (and riders), with similar run-styles, is most likely to race prominently, and potentially take advantage of a lack of pace.

Elbereth is just about the likeliest to go from the front. Her run style is more tracking the pace, but in a race like this, Oisin Murphy - who, as the image below illustrates, rides from the front more frequently than your average jockey - could set the fractions. Elbereth won a minor event at Dundalk (by half a length from Fire Fighting) last March, and improved on that when second in the Dahlia Stakes at Newmarket in May. She was well below form when last seen, but was unsuited by the going that day, and is expected to bounce back now dropped in trip, especially if gifted an easy lead.

Fire Fighting was also below form when last seen, too free after eight months off. He has a good record on the all-weather but has tended to save his best for Kempton and Chelmsford (yet to win here in six starts). He’s another who could take up the running, but his last two starts has seen him held up (broke slowly last time).

Course specialist Petite Jack resumed winning ways, looking more straightforward than of late and adding a listed success to his record, when beating Mia Tesoro by a neck over C&D in December. Petite Jack was suited by the emphasis on speed that day and may find this race run to suit once more, but a 3 lb penalty for that win leaves him with improvement to find. Meanwhile, the suspicion is that Mia Tesoro’s recent efforts are a little flattering.

Petite Jack wins the @betway Quebec listed stakes under Luke Morris for @Archie_Watson pic.twitter.com/gaB74Eu5Z7

— Lingfield Park (@LingfieldPark) December 23, 2017

Utmost left the impression that he'd have benefited from a stronger gallop when a quarter-length third to Petite Jack, while the unexposed Intern travelled well when fourth that day from a position further back than Utmost, forced wide entering the straight. He remains capable of better, but could find himself with too much to do once again.

Andrea Atzeni takes over on Red Label who hasn’t been with Marco Botti for long. A dual winner (first for Luca Cumani, and then for Jessica Harrington), the market should help guide to Red Label’s chance on his all-weather debut.

Completing the field is Battle of Marathon, who wasted no time getting back to form when fourth to Goring over a mile last time, but who has shown his best form over that trip. He’ll likely need to reproduce his best form from the spring/summer of 2016 to get competitive here.

Conclusion

Several of these clashed over C&D last time, however the two to concentrate on appear to be Victory Bond and Elbereth. The former looked a little unlucky when beaten over C&D two starts ago, but may get a sense of deja-vu here, with Elbereth fancied to get first run from the front. Having recorded the best timefigure of the field, she makes plenty of appeal.

Recommended bet:

Elbereth to win Saturday’s Winter Derby Trial at Lingfield at 5/1