Leopardstown Christmas Chase Preview: Only one can beat John

Heading the market is Sizing John, who took his unbeaten run to five (the last four of those Grade 1s) when taking the John Durkan at Punchestown earlier in the month. Those four Grade 1s include a remarkable Gold Cup treble last season, featuring the Irish, Cheltenham and Punchestown Gold Cups. On ratings (7 lb clear of this field) he’ll be tough to beat, though it’s hard to get too excited about his current price (7/4).

Three-pronged attack for Mullins

Unlike many other Irish Grade 1s, this isn’t a race which Willie Mullins has dominated, his only win coming courtesy of Don Poli in 2015, but he could reportedly saddle three runners in this year’s race. Djakadam has had a few cracks at Sizing John now (including in the Gold Cup), and despite some heavy market support prior to the John Durkan, the gap between the two seems to be getting wider rather than shorter, the short head that separated the pair in last season’s Punchestown Gold Cup extended to seven lengths earlier this month.

Mullins’ best chance may well come courtesy of Yorkhill, who was last seen losing his unbeaten record over fences in the Ryanair Gold Cup at Fairyhouse in April, a race in which he did plenty wrong from an early stage, pulling his way to the front after the fourth, jumping markedly left at times and nearly running out approaching the last fence. The return to a left-handed track should help him plenty here, and though he’s clearly quirky, he remains with the potential to reach the very top over fences. Mullins’ final runner could be Killultagh Vic, absent since winning a Grade 2 novice in remarkable fashion at the beginning of 2016. This is a big ask after nearly two years off, but as a lightly raced Grade 1-winning hurdler, he’s a fascinating entry.

Off the mark at last! Yorkhill gives Willie Mullins & Ruby Walsh their first win at this year's meeting #TheFestival pic.twitter.com/1J2a6RHtu6

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) March 16, 2017

Claret army

Gigginstown have won the last three renewals of this race and are sure to send out a strong team again this year. Their best chance of a fourth win on ratings would be Valseur Lido, who was sent off at just 3/1 for this race last season following an excellent reappearance/stable debut in the JNwine.com Champion Chase at Down Royal. He promised more than he delivered 12 months ago, though, and hasn’t been seen since (missed his intended reappearance in the same race at Down Royal this time around), so is best watched here.

Sub Lieutenant returned to form when third to Sizing John in the John Durkan but in truth it is hard to see him reversing that form, while last year’s winner of this race Outlander is pretty hard to catch right, springing a surprise when bouncing back to his best at Down Royal in November before adding to his up-and-down profile with a lacklustre performance in the Betfair Chase.

The Noel Meade-trained pair of Disko and Road To Respect could represent Gigginstown’s best chance of a fourth straight win in this race. Both may well line up, too, with Disko recently ruled out of a tilt at the King George, and both have fairly similar profiles, young chasers who would arrive here on the back of career-best efforts. Disko’s win in a Down Royal Grade 2 (beat Ballyoisin a neck, the pair eight lengths clear of subsequent winner Ball d’Arc) would put him narrowly ahead of his stablemate, but there isn’t much in it and both are likely to have more to offer given their profiles.

Conclusion

It’s unlikely that either Disko or Road To Respect will be good enough to beat an on-song Sizing John, however, and though this is a field packed full of quality, there is probably only one horse capable of dethroning the reigning champ – if he applies himself. We haven’t seen the best of Yorkhill yet – he was again saving something back when winning last season’s JLT – but there is no doubt that there will be more in the tank as and when required, and with the return to a left-handed track looking a big plus, he looks the bet at the prices against Sizing John.

Recommendation:

Back Yorkhill at 11/4 for the Leopardstown Christmas Chase