Kentucky Derby Preview: Tacitus looks the value

This year’s ‘Run for the Roses’ appears to be as open a renewal as we’ve seen in recent times, and the waters were further muddied when ante-post favourite Omaha Beach became an eleventh-hour non-runner after suffering a trapped epiglottis.

As so often in American top-level contests, Bob Baffert seems to hold the key to the race, fielding no less than three runners: Game Winner, Improbable and Roadster, all of whom have strong claims on form. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile victor Game Winner has yet to win a race in 2019, but he has hardly been disgraced in defeat, finishing a nose second to the aforementioned Omaha Beach in a division of the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn on his reappearance before being beaten just half a length by stable companion Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby last time. In both those races Game Winner suffered wide trips and his efforts can be upgraded as a consequence. He has plenty of experience and determination and is likely to give his running once again.

Game Winner continues his undefeated career as he scores in the G1 American Pharoah Stakes at Santa Anita Park for Trainer Bob Baffert, Owners Gary and Mary West with Jockey Joel Rosario aboard! pic.twitter.com/Ub1dBoUyUo

— TVG (@TVG) September 29, 2018

Despite owning a win over Game Winner, Roadster may struggle to confirm that form at Churchill Downs. He had a better trip than the runner-up in the Santa Anita Derby and doesn’t seem to have as much stamina in his pedigree as his stablemate. It’s likely that Improbable, another Baffert trainee yet to post a win this year, will pose a bigger threat to Game Winner. Despite not being off the mark in 2019, Improbable has done little wrong in two starts, finishing a neck second to Long Range Toddy in the other division of the Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn before finishing a length second to Omaha Beach in the Arkansas Derby at the same track last time.

Looking at the rest of the field, the superbly-bred Tacitus may be the one to serve it up to the Baffert battalions. A neck winner of a maiden at Aqueduct on just his second start in November, Tacitus posted an improved effort on his first three-year-old outing in the Tampa Bay Derby, and he bettered that performance in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last time out. Tacitus did particularly well that day as he suffered interference heading into the first turn but managed to gather himself and come through to record a convincing win on just his fourth career start, despite still looking a little green in the latter stages. Justify proved last year that a Kentucky Derby could be won by a horse with limited experience, and it may well be that Tacitus possesses the most latent talent in this field. If he can overcome his relative lack of seasoning, he may well emerge as a big player.

Another with just four runs under his belt is the unbeaten Florida Derby winner Maximum Security. This horse has divided opinion on the run up to the race, with several ways of looking at his form. There is no doubt that strictly on ratings his Florida Derby effort is as good as anything in the field, but he got away with soft fractions on the front end, and that win may not be quite as good as it looks on the figures. He also got to dictate in his previous win over 7f and will now get a real acid test of his credentials.

Undefeated and now a player on the big stage! Maximum Security makes all under a superb @LuisSae17433683 to win the Florida Derby at @GulfstreamPark. Could this be horse number 16 to win this race and the @KentuckyDerby? pic.twitter.com/QRFHGHTUdv

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) March 30, 2019

Looking at some of the bigger-priced runners, By My Standards has the capacity to outrun his current odds of around 20/1. He did take four starts to finally get off the mark, but his latest win in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds was achieved in a fair time and he looks to be coming to the boil at exactly the right moment. Those wanting an each-way interest in the race could do a lot worse than take a long look at this one. Vekoma is another at a fair price who has strong credentials, his convincing win in the Blue Grass at Keeneland last time being achieved while recording a strong TimeformUS speed figure. This colt has tactical speed but could end up going a stride too fast in a race that may well unfold at a hot tempo.

In summary, Bob Baffert appears to hold all the aces, and while it was very tempting to put up Game Winner, the feeling is we have yet to see the best of Tacitus, who has untapped potential and appears to be getting better and better. At around 9/1, he represents fair value and is taken to give veteran trainer Bill Mott a long-overdue first Kentucky Derby win.

Selection:

Back Tacitus in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs