Kentucky Derby Preview: Back Magic

1 Firenze Fire (Jason Servis/Paco Lopez)

Winner of the Champagne Stakes at Belmont last year who has struggled a little since making a winning reappearance in January. Well beaten into fourth on his last two starts behind both Vino Rosso and Enticed. Needs to find plenty to be a contender. Timeform Rating 113

2 Free Drop Billy (Dale Romans/Robby Albarado)

Grade 1 winner at Keeneland last year hasn’t had the best of trips on his last couple of runs when behind the likes of Good Magic and Enticed. Races as though this distance will be within his compass and should be staying on late. Timeform Rating 114

3 Promises Fulfilled (Dale Romans/Corey J Lanerie)

All three wins have been gained on the lead but is unlikely to have things his own way here. Faded after setting a strong pace in Audible’s Florida Derby last time. Well drawn to attack but likely to be feeling the pinch at the business end. Timeform Rating 116

4 Flameaway (Mark Casse/Jose Lezcano)

Consistent type has won five from nine and finished runner-up to Good Magic in the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland last time. Should be forwardly placed from a good draw and isn’t one to dismiss entirely. Timeform Rating 116

5 Audible (Todd Pletcher/Javier Castellano)

Only defeat came on debut at Belmont last September. Has notched four in a row since, most recently when a convincing winner of the Florida Derby from Hofburg, coming from a fair way off a strong pace. Leading contender. Timeform Rating 125p

6 Good Magic (Chad C Brown/Jose L Ortiz)

Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner who ended last season as one of the top US two-year-olds. Only third on reappearance but returned to form when taking the Blue Grass Stakes from Flameaway at Keeneland last time. Tough sort who should be thereabouts. Timeform Rating 123

7 Justify (Bob Baffert/Mike E Smith)

Exciting prospect who is unbeaten in three starts having only made debut in February. Has been a talking horse ever since, but has backed up the hype by running very fast times. Led all the way when beating Bolt d’Oro in the Santa Anita Derby last time, running out a ready winner. Relative lack of experience the only minor doubt. Timeform Rating 126p

8 Lone Sailor (Thomas Amoss/James Graham)

Outsider who produced a career-best effort when second to Noble Indy (beaten just a neck) in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds on his last outing. Needs to prove that isn’t a flash in the pan. Timeform Rating 114

9 Hofburg (William Mott/Irad Ortiz Jr)

Was making just his third start when chasing home Audible in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream last time. Open to plenty of progression and hails from a top barn. Could be anything but inexperience may catch him out. Timeform Rating 119p

10 My Boy Jack (J Keith Desormeaux/Kent J Desormeaux)

Consistent sort whose form ties in closely with the likes of Noble Indy and My Boy Jack. Has plenty of experience but likely to find a few too good at this level. Timeform Rating 114

11 Bolt d’Oro (Mick Ruis/Victor Espinoza)

One of the leading US two-year-old on Timeform ratings last season, finishing the year with a third-place finish behind Good Magic in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where a wide trip hindered him. Awarded the San Felipe at Santa Anita following McKinzie’s disqualification, but then put in his place by Justify in the Santa Anita Derby. Tough to write off but beginning to look a touch exposed. Timeform Rating 121

12 Enticed (Kiaran McLaughlin/Junior Alvarado)

Godolphin’s hope who was well beaten by Vino Rosso last time but sat relatively close to a fast pace that day. Sould prove better than that but maybe lacks the requisite class for a race of this nature. Timeform Rating 116

13 Bravazo (D Wayne Lukas/Luis Contreras)

Game winner of the Risen Star at Fair Grounds in February who was well beaten in the Louisiana Derby there last time. Looks a bit out of his depth. Timeform Rating 111

14 Mendelssohn (A P O'Brien/Ryan Moore)

Could hardly have been more impressive in running away with the UAE Derby at Meydan last time, the clock backing up what was a high-class performance. Will find this a very different test but is bred to be a superstar on dirt. Has strong claims of becoming the first European-trained winner of the race. Timeform Rating 127

15 Instilled Regard (Jerry Hollendorfer/Drayden Van Dyke)

His last two starts have both resulted in fourth-placed finishes behind a few of the rivals he faces here. Would need a big turnaround to contend and that looks unlikely. Timeform Rating 114

16 Magnum Moon (Todd Pletcher/Luis Saez)

Has been very impressive in winning his last two starts at Oaklawn, most recently the Arkansas Derby by four lengths from Quip and Solomini. Tendency to drift right at the business end of his races is a concern but no doubting his talent. Definitely in the mix. Timeform Rating 124p

17 Solomini (Bob Baffert/Flavien Prat)

No doubting his honesty but keeps finding one or two a little too good for him at the top level. Experience will come in handy, though, (this his seventh start) and is more likely than not to give his running. Timeform Rating 118

18 Vino Rosso (Todd Pletcher/John R Velazquez)

Came from off a strong pace to land the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct last time, beating Enticed by three lengths. Hadn’t looked a star by any means before then but is going the right way. Will drop in from wide draw and hope the leaders go off too hard. Timeform Rating 119

19 Noble Indy (Todd Pletcher/Florent Geroux)

The outsider of Todd Pletcher’s four runners who has done little wrong in winning three of his four starts, most recently when taking the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds. Open to progression but may find a few too strong at this stage of his career. Timeform Rating 114p

20 Combatant (Steven Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr)

Has ground to make up on the likes of Magnum Moon and My Boy Jack based on his last three starts. Just one win from seven outings doesn’t mark him out as a Classic winner in waiting. Timeform Rating 113

R21 Blended Citizen (Doug O'Neill/Kyle Frey)

Will be a big outsider if making the field (currently a reserve), his two wins so far coming on turf and polytrack. Well beaten into fifth behind Good Magic in the Blue Grass at Keeneland last time. Timeform Rating 110

Conclusion

In what promises to be one of the best renewals of recent times, it could be worth chancing GOOD MAGIC, who may not have the latent talent of a Mendelssohn or a Justify, but is tough as teak and will relish a battle if this is a rough, attritional contest. Audible, Bolt d’Oro and Magnum Moon head the list of others who are likely to be thereabouts.

Recommended bet: 

Back Good Magic to win the 2018 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on Saturday at 10/1