Kentucky Derby: Empire can rule in triple crown Classic

It’s probably fair to say that, where American dirt horses are concerned, we have been rather spoilt in recent years. The likes of Arrogate and two of the last three Kentucky Derby winners, American Pharoah and California Chrome, have established themselves as greats of the modern era. With that in mind, we are probably due something of a lull, and this year’s renewal of what the Americans term ‘the greatest two minutes in sport’ is unlikely to throw up anything of the calibre of that aforementioned trio, although several towards the front of the market possess very smart form.

When breaking down a race of this nature, a good starting point is to use historical standards. In recent times, the winner has needed to run to a Timeform rating of around 125/126 to take the race, although few have gone into it having achieved that level beforehand. So, an element of projection is required, as three-year-olds can improve markedly at this time of year. The horses who are closest in terms of the required standard, and therefore not needing to improve too much, are Classic Empire (123), Always Dreaming (122), Irish War Cry (121), and Gunnevera (120).

The talented, albeit quirky, Classic Empire gets his rating by virtue of his win in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Santa Anita in November – that being the culmination of a year in which he would probably be unbeaten were it not for unshipping his rider at the start in the Hopeful Stakes at Saratoga in September. His jink there was one of the first indications we got of Classic Empire’s rather wayward tendencies. His disappointing effort on seasonal debut this year (a distant third to Irish War Cry at Gulfstream in February) coming after he got very worked up and sweaty pre-race, another sign that this talented individual wasn’t completely straightforward. Further fuel was added to the fire when it was reported he’d refused to set off for exercise gallops on a couple of occasions after that. However, on his most recent start, Classic Empire behaved impeccably, and was an impressive winner of the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn, staying on strongly. Probably the most naturally talented in the field, if Classic Empire has grown up in the last few months, he is very much the one to beat.

Todd Pletcher is generally regarded as America’s most successful modern day trainer, but has won the Kentucky Derby only once – Super Saver in 2010 providing that win. Pletcher enters this year’s race three-handed, with Always Dreaming looking his most likely chance of victory (the stable also field Patch and Tapwrit). Always Dreaming is unbeaten in three 2017 starts, the most recent coming in a good time when taking the Florida Derby at Gulfstream. Always well placed through even fractions, Pletcher’s charge ran out a five-length winner from State of Honor and Gunnevera. A prominent racer, Always Dreaming hasn’t had to withstand fast early fractions in his career to date, and that would probably the biggest worry for those wanting to get involved with this one.

Irish War Cry represents trainer Graham Motion, who was successful in 2011 with Animal Kingdom. A son of stamina influence Curlin, Irish War Cry should get the trip, and has done little wrong in his five starts, the one blip coming when running no sort of race behind Gunnevera in the Fountain of Youth at Gulfstream, an effort best forgiven. Either side of that, Irish War Cry showed plenty in taking the Holy Bull (also at Gulfstream) and, most recently, the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, keeping on strongly to beat Battalion Runner by three and a half lengths. His draw in seventeen isn’t that much of an inconvenience as it should ensure he gets a clean trip away from the scrimmaging that can occur towards the inner.

Gunnevera’s form ties in closely with the trio mentioned so far – his best effort by some way coming when running out a near-six length winner of the Fountain of Youth. A fast pace is needed to see Gunnevera to maximum effect, something he just didn’t get when third to Always Dreaming last time. The frantic pace that is likely to ensue here should be right up his street and he makes some appeal at double-figure prices.

McCraken looked a horse going places when reeling off four wins on the bounce to begin his career, including successes at Grade 2 and 3 level. A tad disappointing when only third to Irap in the Wood Memorial at Keeneland last time, it is probably best to give him a pass there as things just didn’t an out ideally, and he wasn’t given a hard time when beaten. A three-time course winner, McCraken is not to be underestimated, for all that he has yet to run a particularly fast TimeformUS speed figure.

As the pre-race ratings suggest, a blanket can be thrown over the majority of the rest of the field, but a special mention must be reserved for Thunder Snow, who is attempting to become Godolphin’s first ever Kentucky Derby winner. Unfortunately, the boldness of connections hasn’t been rewarded with a plum draw, as his berth in stall two is going to make things tricky unless he can break particularly sharply. The form of Thunder Snow’s wins in Dubai (including the UAE Derby) leaves him a little way short of the best in here, and he needs to make above-average improvement based on those efforts. On the best of his turf form he isn’t far off the principals, but the overwhelming feeling is he will just find this all too much against some battle-hardened American dirt horses.

To sum up, it is worth siding with Classic Empire now that he appears to have put a lid on his previously errant ways. Proven under sloppy conditions at Churchill Downs, which could prove crucial with rain forecast, he simply has that touch of star quality and talent that his nearest rivals may not possess. However, he does come with risks attached, and as such it is probably worth having a saver on something at a bigger price. Gunnevera is almost certain to get the fast pace he needs and is very effective in those circumstances. He looks a touch of value at current prices.

Recommendations: 1pt win Classic Empire, 0.5pt win Gunnevera