July Cup: Fahey second-string to have another big Impact

The July Cup was won last year by Charles Hills’ Muhaarar, who didn’t need to better his Commonwealth Cup-winning performance, despite taking on older horses for the first time. He went on to win the Prix Maurice de Gheest at Deauville in August and then produced a career-best effort when completing the four-timer in the Champions Sprint Stakes at Ascot on his final start, beating Twilight Son by two lengths. With Muhaarar now retired to stud, it is Twilight Son who has picked up the baton for British six-furlong sprinters following his win in the Diamond Jubilee Stakes at Royal Ascot last month.

Though his master rating is still 7 lb below Muhaarar’s at his peak, Twilight Son, whose three wins in 2015 included the Sprint Cup at Haydock, showed plenty of determination to fend off Gold-Fun last month, where Magical Memory (fourth) and Suedois (fifth) were also snapping at his heels in a tight finish. Henry Candy’s sprinter improved significantly from his reappearance in the Duke of York Stakes, a race in which he had been a well-beaten fifth to Magical Memory (with Suedois second), though it’s worth remembering that Twilight Son did have to carry a penalty on the Knavesmire. He tops the ratings for Saturday’s race (though only narrowly) and deserves his place there. 

Magical Memory, like Muhaarar, also trained by Charles Hills, has fallen a little short on both Group 1 starts to date, both times behind Twilight Son, but he shaped well in the Diamond Jubilee, not seen to best effect in a fairly tactical race and eventually paying the price for a big mid-race move to get into contention. He is just 1 lb shy of Twilight Son on the ratings, and, as a winner of his last two starts on the Rowley Mile course at Newmarket, it would be folly to underestimate his chance. Level on the figures, in part due to the 9 lb allowance she gets from the older males, is Quiet Reflection. Karl Burke’s filly was a deeply impressive winner of the Commonwealth Cup at Royal Ascot, however it should be noted that she ran to a figure 10 lb shy of that recorded by Muhaarar in the previous year’s inaugural running of the same race. This is a big step up but she has clearly earned it.

Adding more Royal Ascot-winning form to the mix, and, it has to be said, muddying the waters somewhat after being supplemented for £40,000 earlier in the week, is the leading five furlong sprinter in Europe: Profitable. Clive Cox’s Palace House, Temple Stakes and King’s Stand winner has carried all before him this season and his progress is reminiscent of the yard’s Lethal Force, winner of this race in 2013. The only question mark surrounding Profitable is whether he will be as effective over this extra furlong, having been fifth to Muhaarar in the Commonwealth Cup at Ascot last season – his only previous attempt at the trip. On ratings, he has just 2 lb to find with Twilight Son.

That figure is the same that Limato, another Henry Candy runner, has to find with his stablemate. Despite positive reports from the gallops and in the betting market this week, it’s hard to be overly confident about Limato’s return to sprinting, despite running well on his reappearance in the Lockinge over 1m in June. The performance was undoubtedly one to view positively for the campaign ahead, lack of fitness as likely an explanation as lack of stamina, though this looks a tough race in which to try to get back on the winning trail. Similar applies to English and Irish 2000 Guineas flop Air Force Blue, who has been bitterly disappointing this season and now drops back to sprinting.

With so little separating the top handful of runners, both on ratings and at the top of the market, the value in the race may lie with some of the horses currently going under the radar; though this term’s top-level sprints have been won by fancied runners, last year’s King’s Stand was won by 20/1 chance Goldream, with 50/1 shot Medicean Man in second, while 14/1 shot Undrafted emerged victorious in last season’s Diamond Jubilee.

Michael Appleby’s Danzeno, fifth in this race last term and third in the Duke of York on his reappearance in May, links several of these runners, having also chased home Don’t Touch last time. The latter, trained by Richard Fahey, has won seven of his eight starts (only made his debut as a three-year-old in May last year) and is a progressive sprinter, however it is his stablemate Eastern Impact who makes more appeal at the prices. With last year’s July Cup winner Muhaarar retired, and runner-up Tropics sidelined through injury, one could argue that the task facing last season’s third, Eastern Impact, has been made easier. Of course, that’s clearly not the case, with a number of exciting horses eagerly filling any gaps in the domestic sprinting ranks at present, however Eastern Impact does look overpriced at 33/1.

Eastern Impact looked as good as ever when two and three quarter lengths fourth behind Magical Memory in the Duke of York Stakes on his return, only fading late on, and it looks significant that connections decided to wait for this race rather than be tempted to run him at Royal Ascot. Though he won a Group 3 at the Berkshire venue last October, his record on both courses at Newmarket (form figures read 4-1-2-1-1-3) makes him a likely contender, despite having a bit to find on ratings. On that front, it’s worth noting that his effort in this race 12 months ago was 7 lb better than his preceding start; a similar level of improvement on his Duke of York run, would, in all likelihood, see him go close.

Recommendation:

Back Eastern Impact each-way at 33/1 in the July Cup