John of Gaunt Stakes Preview: Tabarrak primed to go close

There aren’t many pattern races run over seven furlongs in the British racing calendar, but they serve well to horses who don’t quite stay a mile and aren’t fast enough to be effective at six furlongs or less. With that in mind, you would assume that the John of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock would historically be well supported but, in fact, the average field size over the last 10 years is just 8.9. No horse has won the race more than twice, either, with only two completing the feat, the latest being Main Aim, who won back-to-back renewals in 2009 and 2010.

Despite the average field size over the last decade, there is a healthy number of 19 entries at the five-day stage, and it looks a competitive bunch, too, as the ante-post betting market reflects. It is Sir Dancealot who the bookmakers have installed as favourite, following his encouraging return in the Lockinge Stakes at Newbury. He made a promising forward move over two furlongs out, before the combination of a seven-month absence and lack of stamina seemingly told. A four-time winner last season (three times over seven furlongs), he was highly tried towards the end, and looks a worthy favourite on form now back at what looks his optimum trip.

ICYMI: Mustashry beat Laurens in the Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes @NewburyRacing! pic.twitter.com/qY2q275mWD

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) May 18, 2019

Safe Voyage is becoming something of a Haydock specialist, with three of his last four wins coming over this C&D, notably a listed race on his latest start, when he had the likes of Mankib, Suedois and Arbalet all in behind. Safe Voyage showed improved form to make a smooth transition out of handicaps, making up for lost time having been restricted to three starts in 2018, having to pick his way through over two furlongs out, but displaying a smart turn of foot inside the final furlong and ultimately well on top at the finish. This looks an obvious next step for him given his effectiveness over C&D and you would be hard pressed to say he isn’t capable of even better yet. Furthermore, all of his best form has come on ground Timeform have described as good or softer, so the forecast rain this week will be in his favour, too.

The William Haggas-trained Mankib is an interesting contender having shaped well on his first run for seven months, looking to have returned better than ever. He travelled better than all of his rivals on that occasion, still on the bridle in the rear when the race started to develop, and he left the impression he could take a step forward from that. It would be no surprise were he to bridge the gap with Safe Voyage now, still relatively lightly raced for a five-year-old after all.

Arbalet and Suedois are harder to make a case for, however, the first-named running well below form in both of his starts so far this season, for all that he perhaps did too much too soon here last time. All of his best form has come on good to firm ground, and he wouldn’t want the forecast rain to arrive. Suedois hasn’t won since landing the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland in 2017 and failed to come on for his reappearance when only fourth last time. Now an eight-year-old, he isn’t getting any younger and is probably best watched for now.

Last season’s 2000 Guineas runner-up, Tip Two Win, is reportedly set to make his return in this race, having finished lame when last seen in the Qatar Derby at Doha in December. He proved himself a smart performer last year – he also finished fourth to Without Parole in the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot – and this will be the weakest opposition he will have faced for a while, so it would be folly to ignore his claims, for all he has to prove his well-being. Any rain wouldn’t help his chance, either, and his trainer has mooted that he could bypass the race if the ground turns testing.

"He seems in good form now and he did a nice piece of work this morning."

Tip Two Win is set to make his belated reappearance at @haydockraces on Saturday >>>https://t.co/wYisRFq7nF pic.twitter.com/ma50Mo4XVh

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) June 3, 2019

One trainer that will be doing the rain dance is Ralph Beckett, who trains Mitchum Swagger. He is a rather frustrating horse, and perhaps hasn’t won as many times as his ability deserves. However, he is very effective when getting his conditions – a strongly-run race in soft/heavy ground – and generally goes well at this course (won a one-mile handicap here and was beaten less than a length in this race in 2017). He hasn’t run badly in both of his starts so far this season, proving he is still capable of smart form, but he seemingly is more effective at a mile nowadays, so the drop back to seven furlongs is a slight concern.

Tabarrak managed to win three times last season, but it was his win in a listed event over this C&D which makes him of interest here. On the figures, that remains his best performance to date, defying a penalty to beat a now very smart performer in the shape of Mubtasim. His recent return at Ascot was encouraging, too – when also having a penalty to carry – and that form is working out well, with both the winner and runner-up winning their next starts. Tabarrak shaped well with an eye to the future on that occasion and, given that he has won second time up on each of his last four campaigns, he looks a solid contender escaping a penalty now.

Others to consider include Tabarrak’s stablemate Oh This Is Us, a consistent type who again went close when runner-up in the Diomed Stakes at Epsom last weekend. This will be a quick enough turn around, but he is a past winner at this course and will be no back number if taking his chance. Cardsharp also enters calculations having looked better than ever to resume winning ways in a handicap at York last month. That performance will likely force him out of handicaps now, and it’s hard to know whether he can repeat that sort of figure back in pattern company.

Conclusion

Provided the majority of the principals stand their ground, this should prove a competitive renewal, with Sir Dancealot an obvious player given the company he was keeping last season. The drop back to seven furlongs will also suit and he has likely had this race on his agenda for a while. However, Tabarrak also has solid claims and is available to back at double the odds, so looks the way to go returned to this venue for a yard that continue to churn out the winners.

Recommendation:

Back Tabarrak at 7/1 in the John of Gaunt Stakes at Haydock on Saturday