Joel Stakes Position Map Preview: Pace points to Reality

The Joel Stakes is one of the newer races at the Cambridgeshire meeting, having first been run as the Main Reef Stakes in 1987. Main Reef was owned by Jim Joel, one of only a handful of owners to have won both the Derby (in 1967) and the Grand National (in 1987) with Royal Palace and Maori Venture, respectively. With the Derby behind them, and the National unlikely for this bunch of milers (though you never know these days – Tiger Roll was bred to win the Epsom Blue Riband), none of the five entries for this year’s renewal are likely to follow the same path. However, there is a very winnable Group 2 up for grabs after the field was chopped – rather than whittled down – at the declaration stage.

With such a small field, tactics will prove crucial, and the image below suggests that Regal Reality and Zabeel Prince may be best placed to take advantage of a ‘Very Weak’ pace forecast.

Regal Reality doesn’t need to lead – indeed, his best performance (and timefigure) actually came when he raced off the pace – however that was more down to circumstance than anything else, as he missed the break in the Thoroughbred Stakes at Goodwood and Ostilio and Chief Ironside set some fast early fractions, meaning Frankie Dettori had little choice but to bide his time.

Regal Reality has only had four starts, but he has led in two, when winning on debut and then when third (carrying a penalty) to Here Comes When in the Superior Mile at Haydock last time. He was unsuited by the extreme conditions there, but still plugged on well once headed, and remains with potential now back on a more suitable surface.

REGAL REALITY wins the Group 3 Thoroughbred Stakes at #GloriusGoodwood under Frankie Dettori! That's a double on the day for Sir Michael Stoute!

📽️ @itvracing
pic.twitter.com/qTFO2ncggD

— Timeform Live (@TimeformLive) August 3, 2018

The five-year-old Zabeel Prince has only had seven starts, and looked set for a good season when making all for a ready success in the listed Doncaster Mile in March on heavy ground, but he didn’t look at ease on much firmer going in the Group 1 Lockinge Stakes eight weeks later. He has a proven record fresh and looks a big danger, but won’t want conditions to dry out too much.

Mustashry was seemingly amiss in this race last year but made a successful return in a listed race at Sandown in July over 1¼m and showed his versatility when dropping back to seven furlongs to win a falsely-run Park Stakes at Doncaster last time, outbattling D’bai to get up by a neck. He was beaten half a length by Lord Glitters in the Strensall Stakes at York in-between, and he won’t be inconvenienced by stepping back up in trip given his versatility in regards to tactics.

Lord Glitters ties in with Accidental Agent, who put up clear career-best effort when a 33/1 winner of the Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot, coming from well off the pace and leading late on to beat the subsequent Group 3 winner by half a length. Things didn’t unfold anything like as favourably for Accidental Agent when beating only one home in Prix Jacques le Marois at Deauville last time, always behind after his usual slow start, and while the drop in class will help here, a 5 lb Group 1 penalty and a tactical contest are unlikely to help his chance.

Zonderland completes the line-up. He was smart at three but managed only a couple of starts the following season, including a runner-up finish in the Celebration Mile at Goodwood for the second year running (after a year’s absence). He has been back to near his best of late, finishing a good fourth in a blanket finish behind Beat The Bank in the latest renewal of the Celebration Mile. He’s respected, but is yet to win in eight starts at this level or higher so is taken on, for all this looks only an average Joel Stakes at best.

Conclusion

Three-year-olds have won two of the last three renewals, and this could be a good opportunity to add to their tally. Accidental Agent’s Group 1 penalty makes life tough with the race not sure to be run to suit, while favourite Mustashry has a 3 lb penalty to shoulder, but coped well with a tactical race at Doncaster last time and should be well-placed to cope with a similar scenario here. However, with Zabeel Prince suited by softer ground, the three-year-old Regal Reality gets the nod at 7/2, as it’s entirely plausible that he’ll be able to dictate from the front.

Recommended bet:

Back Regal Reality to win Friday’s Joel Stakes at 7/2