Japan Cup Preview: Kitasan Black can go back to back

The Japan Cup is one of the most prestigious races in Japan, and with a purse of over £5 million, it is one of the richest races in the world, too. There have been seven European-trained winners of the race since the inaugural running in 1981, three of those British, with Clive Brittain (1986), Sir Michael Stoute (1996 and 1997) and Luca Cumani (2005) all tasting success in Tokyo. The race itself is run on turf over a mile and a half on a left-handed track and there are 17 runners set to go to post for this year’s renewal at 15:40 local time (around 06:40 UK time).

The main hope from the European contingent is seemingly the Aidan O’Brien-trained Idaho, who was last seen finishing fourth in the Canadian International at Woodbine in October. That race didn’t go to plan for Idaho, not ideally placed in the rear given the slow pace and unable to quicken to catch the leaders, making some late headway on the outer but never really involved. He is better than he was able to show there – as his win in the Hardwicke Stakes at Royal Ascot would suggest – and he has sound form claims here.

The two German-trained runners Guignol and Iquitos are similarly matched on form, though Guignol has beaten Iquitos on three separate occasions so far this year, including in the Grosser Preis von Bayern at Munich last time. Guignol had beaten Iquitos by two and a half lengths on their previous meeting at Baden-Baden in September, and looked set to win in similar style when going clear early in the straight at Munich last time, but he only just held on as Iquitos stayed on strongly in the final furlong. They again race off level weights here, and it’s hard to see Iquitos reversing the tables here on recent form, and Guignol has a good draw in stall three to enforce his usual front-running style.

The home team appear strong, though, and last year’s winner Kitasan Black is bidding to replicate Gentildonna by recording back-to-back wins. He has proved at least as good as ever this year, winning three times at the highest level, his latest success by a neck from Satono Crown in the Tenno Sho (Autumn) at this track over a mile and a quarter and, as his odds suggest, he holds leading claims with Yutaka Take again taking the ride. Satono Crown pulled two and a half lengths clear of the third that day and was staying on stoutly in the closing stages, though you’d be hard pressed to say he deserved to win, Kitasan Black always doing enough in front.

A fly in the ointment could prove to be the improving three-year-old Rey de Oro, who proved himself a very smart performer when winning the Group 2 Kobe Shimbun Hai at Hanshin by two lengths from a subsequent winner. This will be his stiffest task to date, but he gets a handy weight-for-age allowance, and showed when winning the Japanese Derby he isn’t intimidated by a big field, so it would be folly to ignore his claims up against his elders for the first time.

Of the others, Cheval Grand could run into a place if at his best with top Australian jockey Hugh Bowman taking over in the saddle. Cheval Grand has a bit to find with both Kitasan Black and Satono Crown, but has a good draw in stall one and finished two and a half lengths third in this race last year.