From the all-weather to Epsom: How the Oaks is changing

When visiting Chelmsford for a low-quality evening meeting last month, the last thing I expected to see was a filly who less than six weeks later would be favourite for Friday’s Oaks, particularly as all eyes had seemingly already turned to the following day’s £1 million All-Weather Finals Day at Lingfield Park.

Mehdaayih’s profile was one of a steady improver in three starts as a two-year-old last season, and although she had signed off with a win at Yarmouth last October, her opening BHA mark of 84 didn’t look a complete gimmie (at Timeform we had her rated 83p pre-race). But, with powerful connections on her side and strong in the betting, the final race of the evening, a two-runner fillies' handicap, was apparently hers for the taking. In beating a race-fit and in-form Cafe Espresso, by 14 lengths and with an impressive timefigure for a match (97) to boot, she marked herself out as a filly of great potential.

That there isn’t a Twitter replay of the race to share on here alludes to just how low-key an affair it was, but it didn’t stop the raceday presenter Derek Thompson – ever the professional – from hinting that this daughter of Frankel could be something special. Still, it was difficult to believe that John Gosden would send one of his better prospects to such modest surroundings.

“Tommo” had the last laugh, though, as Mehdaayih was installed as favourite for the Oaks after taking another significant step forward to win the Cheshire Oaks in emphatic fashion 20 days later, a trial with a strong recent history: the 2017 winner Enable went on to glory at Epsom, while Forever Together, who was second on the Roodee 12 months later, won the 2018 Oaks. It’s no surprise then, that Mehdaayih’s connections have since supplemented her for the second fillies’ Classic at a cost of £30,000.

Wow! Mehdaayih powers clear to win the @arklefinance Cheshire Oaks at @ChesterRaces #BoodlesMayFest pic.twitter.com/PMGuHgV9SO

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) May 8, 2019

Switching to sand

Rather interestingly, should Mehdaayih succeed at Epsom on Friday, she would follow in the footsteps of Enable in becoming the second Oaks winner in three years to have run on the all-weather ahead of Epsom, joining the likes of Group 1 winners Jack Hobbs, Ghanaati and Without Parole who all broke their maiden tags on an artificial surface.

It’s a pattern which seems particularly prevalent in the Oaks in recent years, too. Since the turn of the century, Aidan O’Brien has raced 10 fillies on the all-weather prior to Epsom, including the 2015 winner Qualify, Ed Dunlop has saddled four fillies (including 2010 winner Snow Fairy), and Gosden four. In total, four winners of the Oaks since 2010 have had a run on the all-weather prior to their Classic win, with the Ralph Beckett-trained Talent (2013) the final spoke in the wheel.

All this hints at a change in perception towards all-weather surfaces, which were (and still sometimes are) viewed as little more than a facility for lower grade horses over the winter, but are now more commonly seen to be a reliable and creditable means of developing a racehorse – which is backed up by recent participation figures in the Epsom Classics.

Indeed, 41 of the 234 fillies (18%) who have run in the Oaks since 2000 had at least one start on the all-weather in the run-up. When broken down further, 14 (of 128, or 11%) came in the first decade up to 2009, while the remaining 28 (of 106, or 26%) came in this decade. There’s a similar pattern in the Derby, too, with 44 of the 269 (16%) participants this century warming up on the all-weather, with 20 (of 149, or 13%) coming in the first decade, and 24 (of 120, or 20%) coming in the second.

The more traditional trial races for both the Oaks and the Derby still stand true as the most thorough means of testing the Classic credentials of a racehorse – after all, Mehdaayih went on to run in the Cheshire Oaks on her next start, only emerging as favourite after that win and a Hugh Taylor recommendation – but the figures above allude to a growing willingness from the top yards towards less conventional paths along the way.

The profile of all-weather racing has been helped by the catalyst of the All-Weather Championships, which was introduced by ARC in 2013/14, and has just completed its fifth season. Aimed at improving the quality and reputation of racing on the all-weather, it has largely succeeded in doing so. Key to this has been an increase in prize money, particularly in the fast-track qualifiers held over the winter, which are enticing a better quality of horse to stay in training when previously they may have headed to warmer climates. A good example is last year’s Cambridgeshire winner Wissahickon, who has picked up £167,186 in prize money from eight starts on the all-weather, a return which more than justifies the decision to keep him busy over the winter.

The AW Championships are thriving

When researching the topic five years ago, Simon Rowlands found that the standard of the average runner on the all-weather had improved significantly (by as much as 3.7 lb on average at Lingfield on Timeform ratings) following the first season of the all-weather championships, and the data has remained largely positive since.

A look at Timeform’s best ever performances on the all-weather shows that all but two of the top 20 runs have come since 2010, and 13 of those since the All-Weather Championships were launched. It’s also worth noting that of the three high-class performances that have been achieved on an artificial surface (running to 125-129 on Timeform ratings), two of those have come in the last five years: Prince Bishop’s victory in the 2014 September Stakes at Kempton, and most recently Matterhorn’s victory in last month’s Easter Classic.

Mehdaayih seems unlikely to be alone in Friday’s race, too, as up to six of her rivals could arrive at Epsom having picked up experience on an artificial surface: Altair, Anapurna, Nausha, Star Catcher, Tauteke and Entitle (though she will reportedly head elsewhere). But Mehdaayih is undoubtedly the headline act among this year’s graduates of the all-weather academy. And should she go on to justify favouritism in Friday’s race, it may encourage even more race planners to rip up the more tried-and-tested routes in favour of the right race at the right time for the horse – which, more often than not, may be earlier than the more traditional spring trials. And that can only be a good thing for fans of all-weather racing.