Irish St Leger day: All in order for St George?

So which Order of St George will turn up for the Irish St Leger this year? Will it be the one who slaughtered a field of older rivals when storming clear to win by eleven lengths as a three-year-old two years ago? Or will it be his lesser self which was turned over at odds of 7/1-on in a four-runner race twelve months ago? On his day, Order of St Leger is a match for any stayer in Europe, as he’s proven in the past in the Gold Cup at Ascot, as well as at the Curragh. But on another three occasions in the twelve months since that massive upset he’s been beaten again when sent off at odds on. The latest occasion was when going down by a short head to Big Orange (an absentee on Sunday due to the prospect of soft ground) when attempting to win the Gold Cup for the second year. Since then, Order of St George has got back to winning ways with a stylish win, for the third year running, in last month’s Irish St Leger Trial over Sunday’s course and distance. Wicklow Brave, who pulled off that shock win under an excellent ride from Frankie Dettori twelve months ago (Chris Hayes gets the leg-up on Sunday), was only fourth on his latest encounter with Order of St George and will do well to repeat the tactics that worked so well last year.  

For those looking to oppose the favourite, who will be odds-on again, Dartmouth and Torcedor look his biggest dangers. Dartmouth’s best form last term compares well with Order of St George’s recent efforts, while he’s proven himself over longer trips this season, winning the Yorkshire Cup in May and going down by the narrowest of margins on a first try at two miles back at York in the Lonsdale Cup last time. Torcedor, winner of the mile and a quarter handicap on this card two years ago, has a bit more to find, but there could still be more to come from this gelding who showed improved form for his new stable earlier this year. He won his first two starts for Jessica Harrington in the spring, on the second occasion being responsible for another of Order of St George’s odds-on defeats when in receipt of weight from him in the Vintage Crop Stakes at Navan. Torcedor has had a break since finishing fifth in the Gold Cup (when his usual headgear was left off) and he looks an interesting each-way option back in cheekpieces here.

As well as Order of St George, Aidan O’Brien fields another odds-on favourite earlier on the card with Gustav Klimt in the Vincent O’Brien National Stakes. O’Brien is marching towards the record fifteen wins in this contest set by his great namesake whom the race commemorates, with Gleneagles, Air Force Blue and Churchill the last three winners all coming out of Ballydoyle. After winning his maiden over course and distance, Gustav Klimt followed up in the Superlative Stakes at Newmarket, though the fact that we’ve rated him value for more like a three-length win when his actual winning margin was just a head shows how much trouble he got into – and then successfully got out of.

Odds-on favourite or not, this isn’t a one-horse race on the ratings which are actually headed by the Gordon Elliott-trained Railway Stakes winner Beckford. That’s largely down to the fact that Beckford has been exposed to Group 1 company already, unlike the favourite, and he acquitted himself well when going down by half a length to Gustav Klimt’s stable-companion Sioux Nation in last month’s Phoenix Stakes when shaping as though the step up to seven furlongs will see him in an even better light.

Jim Bolger has won the National Stakes before with Teofilo, New Approach and Dawn Approach and his latest representative Verbal Dexterity is no forlorn hope on the ratings behind the first two in the market. Unlike that pair, he’s thoroughly proven on a soft surface, evidently relishing the heavy ground (just like his sire Vocalised) when making a winning debut by almost ten lengths over course and distance in June. He was beaten a length by Beckford in the six-furlong Railway Stakes next time when the emphasis was much more on speed, but if it comes up at all testing by Sunday, he’d be one to take seriously.

That just leaves the annual conundrum set by Aidan O’Brien in the Moyglare Stud Stakes which seems to confound even those closest to the yard. Two years ago O’Brien sent out the first three, though Joseph O’Brien’s mount, apparent first string Ballydoyle (5/4 favourite), was beaten by Minding. Last year, Ryan Moore had four fillies to choose from, opting for Promise To Be True who was sent off at even money but finished only fifth. That race had a better outcome for Joseph, this time with his trainer’s hat on, as his 25/1 shot Intricately beat his father’s entire quartet.

This year, Moore has had to pick from five Ballydoyle entries. Helpfully, three of them met in last month’s Debutante Stakes over the same course and distance, though less helpfully it was the outsider of the trio, Magical, who came out on top that day from Moore’s mount Happily, with the Chesham Stakes winner September, sent off favourite, only fourth. With the Duchess of Cambridge winner Clemmie thrown into the mix as well and little between all those fillies on form, this has the makings of another tricky puzzle with no guarantee, even, that Ballydoyle holds the answer. Jessica Harrington has given the powerful-looking Alpha Centauri a break since her narrow defeat in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot and has to be respected, while Dermot Weld’s Chiara Luna made an excellent impression when making a winning debut at Leopardstown last month. Interestingly, Moore has plumped for Clemmie (the step up to seven furlongs will suit the sister of Churchill), though Alpha Centauri is the suggestion to confirm superiority over that filly from Ascot.