Irish Preview: Doyen to edge the battle

Established in 1983, Sunday’s Grade 1 Lawlor’s of Naas Novice Hurdle (registered at the Slaney Novice Hurdle) has been won by some big names in recent years, including the top-class chaser Bellshill, who prevailed three years ago, and the 2016 Grand National winner Rule The World, who won this back in 2013.

Mullins and Elliott pair set to dominate

Willie Mullins has trained four of the past five winners of this race, including last year’s winner Next Destination, who went on to win the Grade 1 Novice Hurdle at the Punchestown Festival last April, and he looks to have leading claims of winning it once again with Tornado Flyer, who has a “large P” attached to his Timeform rating.

Tornado Flyer was a smart bumper performer in three starts last season, with his only defeat coming when third in the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, and he made a highly promising start to his hurdling career when winning at Punchestown last month, needing only to be kept up to his work late on to score by two and three quarter lengths. He is destined for much bigger things in this sphere, looking certain to take high rank amongst this season’s novice hurdlers, and is a key player in this.

Alongside the dominant Mullins, the only other trainer to have won this race in the past five years is, unsurprisingly, Gordon Elliott. He too sends a very exciting novice hurdler in the form of Battleoverdoyen, who triumphed by 13 lengths on hurdling debut at Navan last month. He has previously won a bumper at Punchestown the previous month, and like Tornado Flyer, he also has a “large P” attached to his Timeform rating. Both Battleoverdoyen and Tornado Flyer are fine prospects in the division, and it’s very difficult to split them, with the two separated by just 1 lb on Timeform ratings – the former coming out on top. Regardless of who wins, however, it is likely that both will be key players at the spring festivals.

Eye-popping stuff this - Battleoverdoyen 🚀

pic.twitter.com/4NP9bfKW4z

— At The Races (@AtTheRaces) December 16, 2018

Big two have plenty of cards to play

Mullins has a total of three runners in the race, and boasts two more good prospects in Come To Me and Getareason. The latter began his season back in August, and as a result is more exposed than the majority of his opponents, having had six starts over timber to date. He has shown solid form so far, producing a useful effort to finish second in a Grade 2 contest at Navan last month, though he may need further to be seen to best effect. Come To Me has had just two starts over hurdles, and got off the mark in this sphere at the second attempt at Cork last month, travelling well and in control when left clear two out. He looks well worth a try in graded level, and whilst he isn’t perhaps open to as much improvement as the two main protagonists, he is a good prospect in his own right.

Elliott also has more than one runner in this field, and sends Commander of Fleet, who won a novice contest in good style at Punchestown in November, before finding Grade 1 company too tough at Fairyhouse last month. Whilst the step back up to two and a half miles will suit, he will need to improve again if he is to have serious claims of taking this.

Remaining challengers

Away from Elliott and Mullins, the trainer who looks to have the best chance of wrestling this away from the big two is Joseph O’Brien, who runs Lone Wolf. A winner of a bumper at the Punchestown Festival last April, Lone Wolf returned from an absence to make a winning debut over hurdles at Fairyhouse last month, only picking up the lead in the final 100 yards, but winning readily. He looks open to improvement in this sphere, as does the five-year-old Sams Profile, who shaped well on his first try over three miles in a Grade 3 contest at Cork last month, finishing second. He looked unlucky to be beaten by four lengths by subsequent Grade 2 winner Derrinross that day, his inexperience and a steady pace working against him, and he remains an exciting prospect.

The field is completed by Magnium and First Approach, both of whom have plenty to find if they are to get involved. Magnium showed some useful form when placing in a pair of Grade 3 contests at Navan in November, but the way he backed out of the argument in Grade 2 company at the same track last time suggests he will find this too tough. First Approach was behind Magnium in the second of those Grade 3s, and whilst he is open to improvement yet, two and three quarter miles looks to suit him better.

Conclusion

It is very difficult indeed to separate Tornado Flyer and Battleoverdoyen, who are both very exciting prospects in the division. The latter has a very narrow edge on Timeform ratings, and shades the verdict considering that he looked out of the top drawer when winning at Navan 3 weeks ago – though this is likely to prove to be a highly informative contest. Of the remainder, Come To Me looks most likely to take the final place on offer.