Irish 2000 Guineas Preview: Magna another Ballydoyle machine

Aidan O’Brien has decided to revert to a tried-and-tested route with his latest 2000 Guineas winner Magna Grecia, who will attempt to emulate the same stable’s Rock of Gibraltar, Henrythenavigator, Gleneagles and Churchill by following up in the Irish equivalent at the Curragh on Saturday.

Overall, O’Brien had saddled nine winners of the opening classic of the season before Magna Grecia came along, with the eight who raced again (Foostepsinthesand was retired due to injury after his Newmarket victory) all heading in one of two directions – five stayed at a mile for the Irish 2000 Guineas, with the remaining trio all stepping up in trip for the Epsom Derby.

While the list of dual Guineas winners housed at Ballydoyle is an illustrious one, only Camelot was able to follow up at Epsom, and the mistakes made with Saxon Warrior last year are clearly ones that O’Brien is unwilling to repeat. An impressive winner of the 2000 Guineas, Saxon Warrior failed to add to his tally in five subsequent starts over middle-distances before his retirement, at which time O’Brien ruefully reflected on his charge’s campaign:

‘When he won the Guineas, Donnacha [O’Brien] was of the opinion that he was a very fast horse, but we wanted to give him a chance in the Derby. It’s probably my fault, I probably should have kept him at a mile.’

Those experiences may explain – at least in part – why the more conservative approach has been taken with Magna Grecia this time round, with his pedigree (by Invincible Spirit, whose best progeny have been sprinters or milers, including the 2014 Irish 2000 Guineas winner Kingman) and the speed that he has displayed in his four starts to date supporting the view that a mile is likely to prove his optimum trip.

All three of Magna Grecia’s two-year-old starts came inside the space of a month, culminating with a determined victory in the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster (by a head from Phoenix of Spain). Returning from six months off, he progressed again when winning the opening classic of the season (by two and a half lengths from King of Change), running out a clear-cut winner on the day – for all that there was an advantage in racing in the group that he did (stand-side group filled the first two places) – and laying down a marker for the top races in the miling division in the process.

Magna Grecia a wide-margin winner in the Qipco 2000 Guineas Stakes at @NewmarketRace pic.twitter.com/la5PbyDxld

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) May 4, 2019

Given the reservations about him staying further, this appeals as the obvious next step and he looks sure to take all the beating for his powerful connections; he could yet have even more to offer given his lightly-raced profile and deserves a chance to confirm the view that he would have won however the race had panned out on the Rowley Mile.

Overall, O’Brien is responsible for five of the 16 entries at the five-day stage, and while Magna Grecia is the clear pick of them, it would be no surprise to see Old Glory outrun his odds. An expensively-bought son of Frankel, he showed plenty of ability in three starts at two, notably when beaten a little over a length on his final outing in the Killavullan Stakes at Leopardstown, and there should be more to come from him as he gains in experience (looked far from the finished article last term).

Others to note amongst the home team include Decrypt and Shelir. The latter is unbeaten in two starts to date for Dermot Weld and looked a good prospect when winning a seven-furlong listed race at this venue last time, staying on strongly to lead close home. He remains open to more improvement, especially now stepping back up in trip, and looks well worth a try in this exalted company.

Shelir (8-1) shows strong stamina in the Aga Khan colours to land the Listed contest over seven furlongs for three-year-olds at The Curragh. The Dermot Weld-trained colt remains unbeaten. pic.twitter.com/S6jshFUaOq

— Racing TV (@RacingTV) May 6, 2019

Decrypt created a similarly striking impression when making a winning return from 10 months off in a seven-furlong minor event at Cork, settling the issue in a matter of strides a furlong out before going on to win by three lengths. He is another who should have plenty more to offer this season, though he will need to now stepping up markedly in grade, while there has to be some doubts about his ability to see out the mile on pedigree (by Dark Angel and out of a five-furlong winner at two).

The main dangers to Magna Grecia – at least according to the betting – come from this side of the Irish Sea, with today’s news that Too Darn Hot may make a quick reappearance here after his second in last week’s Dante Stakes at York altering the complexion of the race dramatically.

The outstanding two-year-old of 2018, Too Darn Hot had missed the 2000 Guineas after suffering a minor injury to a splint, and was possibly just short of peak fitness on his belated return on the Knavesmire, doing well to bridge the gap to the front two when none of the others could, but then unable to sustain that in the final 100 yards as the winner Telecaster found extra.

Telecaster holds off Too Darn Hot and wins the Dante! pic.twitter.com/2ESJN9SoFT

— ITV Racing (@itvracing) May 16, 2019

The return to a mile should be in his favour if lining up here, but it was noticeable at York that he hasn't grown much since last year, and the concern is that he may not be as far – if at all – ahead of his contemporaries this year as he was at two. With his participation also yet to be confirmed, he makes little appeal as a betting proposition at this stage.

The pick of the remaining British challengers – Phoenix of Spain and Skardu – are both horses that Magna Grecia has beaten before. Unbeaten in his first two starts (a maiden at two and the Craven Stakes on this season’s reappearance), the latter was the ‘winner’ of the main group in the 2000 Guineas, finishing to good effect but having little chance of pegging back the pair on the stands side (beaten four and a quarter lengths). That still represented a career-best effort, and with further improvement on the cards, he could well prove the main threat to Magna Grecia on this occasion.

Phoenix of Spain, on the other hand, arrives here without the benefit of a prep run, having failed to come to hand in time for the English/French equivalents of the 2000 Guineas. He was a consistent two-year-old, winning a Group 3 at York before finishing placed in the Champagne Stakes (one and three quarter lengths second to Too Darn Hot) and Futurity Trophy, both at Doncaster. He clearly has work to do to reverse the form with that pair, however, especially as he will be conceding race fitness, and a place may be the best that he can hope for once again.

Conclusion

The uncertainty surrounding Too Darn Hot’s participation clouds matters somewhat, but, even if the big clash does get the go-ahead, it would be Magna Grecia who gets the verdict. As good a juvenile as Too Darn Hot was last year, his physique suggests that he may not have the same scope for progression this term as the 2000 Guineas hero, who took a major step forward by winning in style on the Rowley Mile. Magna Grecia could yet have an even bigger effort in the locker when the situation demands it, too, and the odds-against prices currently on offer look well worth snapping up, as he attempts to become yet another dual Guineas winner for the all-conquering Aidan O’Brien.

Recommendation:

Back Magna Grecia at 11/10 in Saturday's Irish 2000 Guineas at the Curragh