International Stakes Position Map Preview: Snow overpriced

In all but one of the five renewals of the Juddmonte International since Frankel’s win in 2012, it has paid to race fairly prominently, with three of the five winners recording an EPF of 2 en-route to landing the ten-furlong Group 1 prize. The Early Position Map below suggests that, while there are no out-and-out front-runners in Wednesday’s Juddmonte International, a fairly strong tempo is still likely due to the presence of several horses who like to race prominently.

That will be good news for the likes of regular hold-up performers Poet’s Word and the supplemented Thundering Blue, but there are several legitimate reasons to look a little beyond the data here.

Without Parole made all the running in the Sussex Stakes at Goodwood last time, but it resulted in the most disappointing result of his five-race career and his worst performance on ratings since he won on his debut at Newcastle. With an extra two furlongs to cover here, it’s far from guaranteed that regular jockey Frankie Dettori (who was absent at Goodwood) will employ similar tactics. Indeed, the colour scale above represents the probability of the horse recording that EPF; deeper reds are higher probability, while white indicates lower probability. Without Parole’s fairly light colour indicates that another front-running ride isn’t assured.

Instead, Irish Derby winner Latrobe – who drops in trip here – and the Godolphin pair of Thunder Snow and Benbatl are more likely to force the issue. None have to lead, but Latrobe won his maiden at the Curragh from the front, and was never too far away when following up over the same C&D just three weeks later in June, while Benbatl made all (easy lead) when winning the Grosser Dallmayr-Preis at Munich last time by two and three quarter lengths from Stormy Antarctic, though, like Without Parole, that was a departure from his usual style.

Thunder Snow yet another horse to break the track record tonight. 2m.01.38s. #DubaiWorldCup pic.twitter.com/YhcuJvF6Ya

— Racing UK (@Racing_UK) 31 March 2018

Thunder Snow has made the running three times in his career, resulting in two wins and a close-up third last season’s Prix Jacques le Marois. He produced a lifetime best when winning the Dubai World Cup (beat West Coast by five and three quarter lengths, allowed to get across from widest draw and making most) when last seen in March, and shouldn’t be underestimated here just because the pick of his form has come on dirt.

Sir Michael Stoute, trainer of last year’s winner Ulysses, saddles Poet’s Word this time round. He won the Brigadier Gerard Stakes at Sandown in May and Prince of Wales's Stakes at Royal Ascot (by two and a quarter lengths from Cracksman) in June, before completing the hat-trick when wearing down stablemate Crystal Ocean in the King George VI and Queen Elizabeth Stakes at Ascot last time. Dropped in trip here, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Poet’s Word ridden more prominently than of late (as he was for two of his first three wins, as well as at Sandown).

Though a York specialist, Thundering Blue’s more habitual hold-up style could leave him with too much to do against much classier opponents than he usually faces, so of more interest are the three-year-olds Roaring Lion and Saxon Warrior, who finished first and second in the Coral-Eclipse at Sandown last time. Only a neck separated the pair there, and it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see 2000 Guineas winner Saxon Warrior reverse the form with the Dante winner Roaring Lion with his stable now in better form. He’s also likely to hold a more prominent position than that rival.

Conclusion

The first proper clash of the ages and a different test for favourite Poet’s Word than he has faced on his last two starts. He could easily stamp his class on proceedings, but the one who makes plenty of each-way appeal at 14/1 is Thunder Snow. He hasn’t been seen since the end of March but has won off a 104-day break in the past and could be able to hold a good position here which will help him make best use of his tactical speed.

Recommended bet:

Back Thunder Snow each-way at 14/1 in Wednesday’s Juddmonte International at York