International Hurdle Preview: One more chance for My Tent Or Yours

Nigel Twiston-Davies won the International Hurdle with Khyber Kim in 2009 and has added two more victories since then with The New One. Having won the race back-to-back in 2013 and 2014, The New One could line up in Saturday’s contest having had his early-season novice chasing plans scuppered by the weather. Clearly, he needs respect, though whether he should be the second-favourite for the race having fallen when last seen at Aintree in April, remains open to question. On weight-adjusted ratings he is second best, however the task of conceding 8 lb to intended runner My Tent Or Yours (who was four lengths ahead of him off level weights in the Champion Hurdle last season) on this return to action might be too demanding.

My Tent Or Yours is clear on weight-adjusted ratings, however there may be some who have given up on Nicky Henderson’s dual Champion Hurdle runner-up. The 2014 Christmas Hurdle was his last win over timber (did win a jumpers’ bumper on the all-weather at Kempton the following February) and he has not been at his best in three of his four starts since returning from an injury that prevented him from racing in the 2014/15 season. He wasn’t seen to best effect when four and a quarter lengths third to Scottish Champion Hurdle winner Ch'tibello in a minor event at Haydock last time, unsuited by the way the race developed, however there is hope on the horizon. He recorded exactly the same performance rating on his return from eight months off at Haydock as he had when winning the Fighting Fifth Hurdle on his return to action in 2013, and he subsequently improved by nearly a stone when winning the Christmas Hurdle on his next start. Fans will be hopeful that he can show similar improvement this season, with this better ground in his favour. I’m still (just) a fan.

As the Douvan debacle showed last week, taking too much notice of ante-post markets is fraught with danger, however the noises have been positive about Dan Skelton’s Mister Miyagi, and negative about Yanworth. The latter, who races in the same J.P. McManus silks as My Tent Or Yours, has only been beaten once in six starts over hurdles (by Yorkhill in the Neptune Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham in March), but was made to work hard to prevail on his reappearance in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot, the muddling nature of the race perhaps not showing him to best advantage. Alan King nominated the Long Walk Hurdle over three miles afterwards as a potential target, so it would be something of a surprise were he to line up here. If he does, his strong cruising speed would give him an obvious chance, remaining as he does a top-notch prospect.

Mister Miyagi has a bit to find on weight-adjusted ratings but he was better than the bare result when third behind Hargam and Court Minstrel in a listed race at Kempton on his reappearance in October, last to come off the bridle. He was trying to give 4 lb to the winner that day and is expected to reverse the form if all three line up here. Mister Miyagi then attempted to give weight away to the very smart chaser Un Temps Pour Tout in a minor hurdle over two and a half miles at Aintree last month, eventually going down by two lengths having again travelled well. A dual Cheltenham winner who was an excellent sixth in the Supreme Novices’ last season – a race that is working out very well – Mister Miyagi has an excellent chance of taking another step forward here. Perhaps crucially, he only has to give 2 lb to My Tent Or Yours and he in turn receives 6 lb from The New One, Yanworth, Hargam and Old Guard.

The first mention of the winner of the previous year’s renewal wouldn’t normally come in the fifth paragraph, however Old Guard’s form has dipped significantly. Following his win 12 months ago, he was a below-par fourth to Faugheen in the Christmas Hurdle (The New One second, Hargam third) and he was then pulled up on his chasing debut/reappearance at Newton Abbot in October following a sprawling landing at the first. He then didn’t convince during a hard-fought chase win (well below the pick of his hurdles form even allowing for the fact he did well to recover from a mistake at a vital stage) at Exeter later in October, before returning to hurdles with little effect at Haydock. Wearing first-time cheekpieces, Old Guard was two and a quarter lengths behind My Tent Or Yours.

Hargam was a length third behind Old Guard in this race last season, however his record at Cheltenham is now just 1/7, having been well below form in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle last time. Melodic Rendezvous finished ahead of both My Tent Or Yours and Hargam in the mud at Haydock, but will surely find this ground too quick. Of more interest at the prices is Court Minstrel who was well below form in the Coral Hurdle at Ascot last time but who had previously run Hargam close at Kempton and whose best performances have tended to come over two miles on good ground, including a win at 40/1 in October 2015.

Having successfully saddled his first British runner with Un de Sceaux in the Tingle Creek, Willie Mullins could send Ivan Grozny over for Saturday’s race. Ivan Grozny won the Grimes Hurdle at Tipperary (by 11 lengths from Sempre Medici) in July and followed up in the Istabraq Hurdle (Hargam third) at the same course in October. Clearly thriving at present, his ante-post supporters could be buoyed by the fact that his best performance came when winning at Aintree in April and, given his high-profile English owners, he could be a more likely runner than some (has had six of his 14 starts for Mullins in the UK). Having resorted to more aggressive tactics on his last three starts (once on the Flat), there’s also the possibility of an easy lead, with only The New One likely to apply any early pressure. There is a nagging doubt that he is best suited by an easier track, however there are many examples – including the latest Champion Hurdle – that races at Cheltenham can be pinched from the front.

Recommended bet:

My Tent Or Yours to win Saturday’s International Hurdle at Cheltenham at 2/1