Hungerford Stakes Preview: Is this Us?

There isn’t a plethora of Group races over 7f for older horses, but Saturday’s Hungerford Stakes at Newbury has rarely been a strong race at this level, only a couple of the 11 renewals since it was promoted to Group 2 level producing top-class performances (Paco Boy in 2008 and Excelebration in 2011). This season’s race has an open look to it once more, with last year’s winner Richard Pankhurst as big as 12/1 following a modest reappearance in the Criterion Stakes at Newmarket last time (though it’s worth noting that he came into this race last season on the back of a below-par effort in the Sussex Stakes). The ante-post favourite is Librisa Breeze, a very smart performer who was most impressive when winning big-field handicaps at Ascot last season, and who shaped as if retaining all his ability after eight months off when a neck-fourth in the Diamond Jubilee (6f) at Royal Ascot. He returned to this trip for the Lennox Stakes at Goodwood, but wasn’t seen to best effect when three and a half lengths ninth to Breton Rock who is currently twice the price of Librisa Breeze for the Hungerford despite that surprise 50/1 success. That was the third Group 2 win of Breton Rock’s career – he won this race in 2014 – but a 3 lb penalty makes life tougher here.

Several other Lennox Stakes also-rans are entered here, including Jungle Cat, Jallota and Spirit of Valor, however the most overpriced looks to be Oh This Is Us at 33/1. A very smart performer for Richard Hannon, the Acclamation colt has made more progress this year, successful in a 1m handicap at Bath in April and a 7f listed race at Haydock in May. He was unlucky not to also win the Diomed Stakes at Epsom in June (short of room at a crucial stage) and it’s easy to forgive his slightly below-par effort in the Group 1 Queen Anne Stakes at Royal Ascot. He was too keen in the early stages of the Lennox, held up off a steady gallop, and found his momentum checked a couple of times before running on under hands and heels. Hannon has kept him busy this year (nine runs in 2017 so far) and whilst Oh This Is Us also has a Celebration Mile entry a week later, this race looks a good fit.

Richard Pankhurst came from off the pace when winning 12 months ago, and that tactic could be favoured once again if more than one of the front-running entries take their place. Gifted Master took advantage of a good opportunity when dominating a small field at Doncaster last time, while Ibn Malik paid the price for duelling for the lead with That Is The Spirit when beaten by Jungle Cat at Haydock last month. Other potential pace angles include recent C&D winner Rusumaat, Summer Mile runner-up Kaspersky, and Minstrel Stakes winner Spirit of Valor. While we know that prominent tactics are often favoured, there looks to be a good chance of a real burnout.

As well as Richard Pankhurst. six-time winner of this race John Gosden has several fillies entered. Fillies and mares have very rarely run in this race in recent years, and to little effect when they have - the last to win it was the Michael Bell-trained Red Evie in 2007, building on the win of the fellow Cheveley Park Stud-owned Chic three years earlier. Eternally, second in a Group 3 at Goodwood earlier this month, and Spangled, who has been off the track since winning the Sceptre Stakes at Doncaster last September, could represent the same owners this year, however the pick of the female entries looks to be Daban. She won the Nell Gwyn Stakes in April before returning to Newmarket to be third in the 1000 Guineas (two and a quarter lengths behind Winter) in May. She had a penalty for her win in the Nell Gwyn, but wasn't in quite the same form as in the Guineas, when only four and three quarter lengths sixth to Le Brivido in the Jersey Stakes at Royal Ascot when last seen, but is capable of bouncing back if lining up here.

Others to mention in an open-looking contest include Mix and Mingle, who lowered the colours of Qemah when winning a Group 3 at Lingfield in May and who was one of three that stayed down the centre when well beaten in the Duke of Cambridge at Royal Ascot, and Massaat, who didn’t go on from finishing second in last year’s 2000 Guineas but who has been kept in training and is scheduled to make his seasonal return here.

Recommendation:

Back Oh This Is Us each-way at 33/1 in Saturday's Hungerford Stakes at Newbury