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Several younger horses trained by Newmarket handler Ed Walker have produced career-best efforts of late, including Iconic Knight, a winner at Windsor on Monday, and Simpson, who may not have won when chasing home Lynwood Gold at Newmarket on Wednesday but who still bettered his previous efforts. Both horses were racing on decent ground for this time of year, which could be a key element when assessing the chances of the yard’s runners over the next week, as the graph below illustrates that there tends to be a big dip when they encounter a bog.
In contrast, Stormy Antarctic won’t be worried by testing ground at Saint-Cloud on Sunday, as three of his four wins have come on ground softer than good according to Timeform. He runs in the Group 3 Prix Perth and, having bounced back to form in style at Chantilly last time (first run since being gelded), looks a major player once more. Closer to home, Blackheath has entries at both Leicester and Redcar. He could go well in either novice event, though he looks the type to do better in handicaps. Global Excel is due to have his third start at Nottingham on Wednesday, and is another who may fare better once handicapping, a comment that is also relevant to Big Bad Lol who makes his first start in that sphere from a mark of 56 on the same card. A half-brother to three winners, including 7f winner Afkar and 1m winner Brave Acclaim, better is now expected.
David Evans is never going to be the sort of trainer who will particularly catch the eye with a host of big race winners, but the Monmouthshire-based handler has been quietly ticking away this season, just four winners shy of last year’s total number of winners. And punters are well-rewarded when able to pinpoint Evans’ winners, with his five most recent returning at SPs of 10/1, 6/1, 15/2 and 8/1. King Power Racing may have more higher-profile runners than Leicester entry Felisa, however the filly was a winner at the track in September and has had excuses for her two defeats since. Topmeup and Harry Beau are also entered, with this more galloping track likely to suit the former more than on her last two starts at Salisbury and Lingfield. The former Richard Hannon-trained Harry Beau hasn’t been with Evans long but his two runs since switching stables suggests that he may have more to offer for his new yard. Three Redcar entries include Istanbul Pasha who improved for a first-time visor last time out, and Give Em A Clump, who seemed sharper retried in the same headgear when winning at Ffos Las in September.
As the graph above illustrates, Tom Lacey has made more of an impression over the summer months than in previous years, and he has continued his winning thread into the start of the jumps season proper, saddling three winners from his last 14 runners. One of those was Sword of Fate, an exciting novice who looks open to improvement for all that a double penalty could make his life tough in novice events. Owners Galloping On The South Downs Partnership patronise two shrewd trainers – Gary Moore being the other – and, along with Equus Amadeus, Sword of Fate looks a four-year-old to keep on side. Polydora, who has had two ignominious starts in bumpers, makes his hurdling debut at Chepstow on Tuesday. A half-brother to five winners, including useful hurdler/very smart chaser Roberto Goldback, he is immediately stepped up in trip for his debut over timber but may need even further before he’s seen to best effect. Sir Egbert has also had two bumper starts, however he shaped with much more promise when third on debut at Warwick and should be suited by the tight turns of Taunton judging by the zest he showed first time up, perhaps more so than at Exeter when last seen. Cora Sundrop is set to have her second start in bumpers at Fakenham on the same afternoon; she offered something to work on, threatening to get involved more than she eventually did, when fifth at Ludlow earlier this month and may do better.
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