Hot To Trot: Dream of Wokingham glory

Flat trainer: Mark Johnston

Having sent out over 1,200 runners in each of the last five seasons, it’s sometimes hard to work out when the best time is to pay more attention to runners from the yard of Mark Johnston. Recent winners including Rose of Kildare, Charles Kingsley and Creek Island at Hamilton, and Lord Lamington at Sandown, underline that the stable’s horses are often see to good effect at courses that test stamina, but the graph below shows that doesn’t always go hand-in-hand with a gruelling race in softer ground. Indeed, it suggests that it generally pays to back the yard’s runners when the going is good or better.

Like Hamilton, Brighton (currently good-to-firm) has a long downhill stretch before a testing uphill finish, and Johnston has three interesting runners there on Monday. Samstar showed enough at Pontefract to think that her lowly opening handicap mark isn’t beyond her, Charles Kingsley will hold an obvious chance under a penalty, while Followme Followyou needs to improve now entering handicaps but should appreciate the step up in trip. Other notable entries early in the week include a potentially strong team heading to Thirsk, including Homespin, who wasn’t unduly punished when fourth at Nottingham on debut, and recent Lingfield winner Francophilia who might finally be starting to live up to her attractive pedigree.

Jumps trainer: Dan Skelton

It’s no secret that Dan Skelton is a trainer to follow over the summer months, but saddling seven winners from ten runners in a seven-day period in May must have been a high-point, even for him. As the graph below show, he’s set very high standards for the 2018/19 season.

The yard has a host of entries at Bangor and Southwell on Tuesday. Both courses have been happy hunting grounds, but the better profit/loss comes from Bangor so it might pay to concentrate on the Welsh border venue. Bergamot rewarded favourite backers when off the mark at the fourth attempt in bumpers, but she was perhaps a little flattered under a change of tactics there (had the run of the race), and of more interest is Iconic Hero. He will want further in time (brother to fair chaser Thegreendalerocket who won over 3¼m), but he shaped with plenty of promise when fifth over C&D last time. Very First Time has his first start for the yard after being sold from Tim Easterby for £17,000 in May and looks very well handicapped on the pick of his form. He’s shown signs of temperament in the past but it would be no surprise to see a revival here, especially if there is significant rain (all wins on soft or heavy).

Under The Radar: Mick Channon

A series of near-misses, including a couple of runner-up efforts from horses up at Carlisle on Thursday night, have highlighted that Mick Channon yard are in good form without thrusting it into your face. Indeed, the yard have had fewer winners so far this year, but a higher percentage of placed horses, and, as the image below shows, the Run To Form % is actually higher than in recent seasons.

Channon has a host of entries at Lingfield on Tuesday, the best of which could be Earl of Harrow, who proved better than ever to get off the mark last time. Admittedly, he was suited by the way the race developed, but rates the type that could have even more to offer. 

Dan’s Dream has an entry in the Duke of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot, but it’s his other entry – in the Wokingham Handicap over six furlongs – that catches the eye. A strongly-run race over that trip should be ideal for a horse who ran well over seven furlongs at the Curragh last time, and a BHA mark of 107 doesn’t look insurmountable; the 33/1 looks worth a nibble.