Hot To Trot: Could be a splendid week for Twiston-Davies

Flat trainer: Archie Watson

Archie Watson enjoyed his best year yet in 2018, saddling a total of 106 winners and operating at a 20% strike rate. His stable is building all the time and, having already sent out seven winners this year, he has made a good start to 2019.

His week kicks off at Wolverhampton on Monday where he has two possible runners in the shape of Silver Quartz and Kingi Compton. The first-named hasn’t been disgraced in a couple of listed events on the all-weather recently and could take his chance in a minor event over the extended mile. It is best to forgive his latest run at Deauville in December, as he didn’t see much daylight in the straight and was short of room over two furlongs out, keeping on once the principals had flown, arguably doing well to be beaten by less than two lengths. There could be more to come from him on an artificial surface and a bold bid is expected.

Kingi Compton left some lesser runs behind when belatedly opening his account over five furlongs at Kempton last time in good style. A subsequent 6 lb rise for that success looks fair and he should go close again granted he can dominate from the outset once more. On Wednesday, Rare has a couple of options at either Kempton or Wolverhampton. She remains a maiden, but is well worth try over two miles (both of her entries are over that trip), having been one paced in the closing stages over a mile and three quarters at Wolverhampton last time after having every chance.

Jumps trainer: Nigel Twiston-Davies

Nigel Twiston-Davies saddled 11 winners in the month of January, including his Triumph Hurdle hope Torpillo who maintained his unbeaten record when winning at Sandown early in the month. As the graph below illustrates, Twiston-Davies has an almost identical run to form/wins ratio across all of the distances he runs his horses.

From Monday onwards he has plenty of horses entered up, starting at Carlilsle and Taunton, where Earlofthecotswolds and Arthur’s Gift hold entries. The former won a novice in good style and shaped well on handicap debut last time. He remains unexposed and, given the way he travelled over further last time, the drop back to two miles could be in his favour. Arthur’s Gift made an encouraging start over fences and is best not judged on his latest effort, hampered in an incident where two horses came down while also looking unsuited by the drop back in trip. The step back up to three miles will suit here and he should have more to offer over fences.

One of Twiston-Davies’ best chances of the week could come at Market Rasen on Tuesday, though, with the unexposed Muratello who will bid to open his account in Britain. A winner in France, he shaped with bags of promise behind a couple of smart types in the Rossington Main Novices' Hurdle at Haydock last time, and a novice under a penalty should be his for the taking. Looking further ahead, Al Dancer is the current favourite for the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on Saturday. It is a race the yard have enjoyed success in with the likes of Splash of Ginge and Ballyandy in recent years and Al Dancer has a similar profile so commands plenty of respect.

Under the radar: Henry Oliver

Henry Oliver has a relatively small string but does well with what he has and, having saddled six winners in January alone, his runners are well worth keeping on side.

Hard To Forget didn’t show much in his three qualifying runs but he did shape much better when making his handicap debut up in trip at Market Rasen last time. He saw out the longer trip fine there, could yet progress further having had just four starts under Rules, and with the yard in better form now he could be worth chancing at Sedgefield on Tuesday. Sally Can’t Wait could also take her chance in a novices’ hurdle at Ludlow on Wednesday. Admittedly, she didn’t build on the promise of her hurdling debut at Southwell last time, and could be being brought along with handicaps in mind, but she may run into a place if getting back on track.