Hot To Trot: All hail Alex

Jumps Trainer: Alex Hales  

This feature is not about highlighting trainers that have had lots of winners of late, but spotting those whose horses are running well (possibly without winning) and those trainers who are about to hit form. Alex Hales falls into the first category, with all but two of his last 21 runners running near their best. In the same time period, he hasn’t had a single winner, however Hales can be sure that a run of ‘seconditis’ – 10 in total over the past month – won’t last forever. As the graph below demonstrates, Hales, who is on the crest of a wave in terms of Run To Form (RTF %), traditionally does well over the winter period.

Stepover, Topper Thornton and Running Wolf all ran career-bests in narrow defeats, and the last-named is entered at Leicester on Monday. He bounced back from a poor run at Uttoxeter in style at Ludlow last time and is still unexposed over 2¾m. Crafty Roberto went like the best horse at the weights after six months off when second at Plumpton last month and has a leading chance on Timeform ratings at Fakenham on Tuesday, while Southwell entry Shiroccodee showed little in four bumper starts for Brian Barr and should improve over hurdles, for all that a longer trip will suit in time.

Flat Trainer: James Tate  

James Tate is one of the more consistent trainers around, and he’s worth keeping on side on the all-weather this winter, as recent wins for Mraseel and Dreaming Time demonstrate. The son of Tom - and nephew of Michael Dickinson – clearly knows what he’s doing and, having saddled his first winner at Southwell in December 2011, he has added more than 250 since. Lingfield entries Battle Lines and Real Estate may not prove to be the cream of the crop, but each has shown a bit of promise on the track to date.  Cape Peninsula progressed again when a short-head second to Lopes Dancer in a handicap at Newcastle last time, and she shouldn’t be overlooked after a two month break later on the Lingfield card. She drops in trip but looks to have the tactical speed to cope. Of Tate’s early entries at Kempton the following day, the most interesting could be Influent who ran her best race yet when fourth at the track last time. She is a half-sister to 1½m-1¾m winner Cape Castle so should relish the two furlong-longer trip.

Under The Radar: Nick Gifford 

Like Hales, Nick Gifford hasn’t been firing home winner after winner, however those who sided with 16/1 chance Brown Bear on his return to action at Ascot at the start of the month were richly rewarded (no, I wasn’t one of them), though having traded at 150-in-running on the exchanges, there were several moments of angst for the progressive six-year-old. After the race, Gifford explained: "I'm a little bit surprised, to be honest, as most of mine have been needing their first run.” That bodes well for stable star Theo’s Charm who was third on his reappearance over fences at Plumpton last month and who has a high-profile hurdle entry at Haydock on Betfair Chase day. His chasing career hasn’t quite taken off as would have been hoped, but the return to the smaller obstacles and testing ground could see an improved performance. Before then, though, Gifford will be hoping for an improved effort from Project Mars at Fontwell on Sunday, and he also has two entries at Warwick on Wednesday. Fairway Freddy shaped well on his debut and this stoutly-bred individual is one to look out for, especially when stepped up in trip over hurdles, while Swift Native will do well not to improve upon her first start; she was pulled up at Plumpton earlier this month.